Knicks-Hawks Round 1 tale of the tape
The Knicks locked up their most favorable playoff matchup. On the surface, these aren’t championship contenders. The Hawks haven’t made the playoffs in four years, fumbling through a 73-158 record the previous three seasons. The Knicks playoff drought is much longer — eight years. They’re on their seventh coach since 2014.
So this is a battle of up-and-coming young squads, rather than the established championship contenders in the Eastern Conference’s top three. The five best players in the series — Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic and John Collins — are all making their playoff debuts, with an average age of 23.8.
With all this understood, it’s difficult picking a favorite or a winner. But here’s the Tale of the Tape for consideration (stats before Sunday’s games):
POINT GUARD
Elfrid Payton vs. Trae Young
Stats: Payton (10.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.2 apg); Young (25.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 9.4 apg)
Breakdown:
This is a wipeout for the Hawks. Young is a dynamic playmaker, a sharpshooter and adept at drawing fouls. His weakness is size and defense. In three games against the Knicks, Young was alternately brilliant and frustrated, averaging 25 points with 12 assists but shooting only 36.2% with 4.3 turnovers. Payton, on the other hand, is a net negative offensively and has been reduced to token starts. Payton played over 20 minutes just once in the last 15 games.
EDGE: Hawks
SHOOTING GUARD
Reggie Bullock vs. Kevin Huerter
Stats: Bullock (10.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.5 apg); Huerter (11.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.5 apg)
Breakdown:
Bullock is really valuable to New York if he’s knocking down the 3-pointer, and he’s the recipient of many open looks because he moves well without the ball while synced with Julius Randle. If he’s missing, Bullock is still a good defender who Thibodeau can play 40 minutes per game. Huerter is younger but plays a similar role as a spot up shooter. The differences? Huerter is better at creating for himself, but isn’t as good defensively and is shooting the 3 at a worse percentage (36% to 40% in favor of Bullock)
EDGE: Knicks
SMALL FORWARD
RJ Barrett vs. Bogdan Bogdanovic
Stats: Barrett (17.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.0 apg); Bogdanovic (16.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.3 apg)
Breakdown:
It’s another close matchup but there’s a reason the Hawks have gone 27-11 since Bogdanovic returned from a fractured knee. He’s a difference maker and fits well next to Young. Barrett has made a giant leap in Year 2 while flashing the potential of a future All-Star. But he’s still only 20 years old.
EDGE: Hawks
POWER FORWARD
Julius Randle vs. John Collins
Stats: Randle (24.1 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 6.0 apg); Collins (17.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.0 bpg)
Breakdown:
Randle received the top Most Improved Player vote and Third Team All-NBA in our official NBA ballot. It’s been a special season. Every time we thought he’d fade or succumb to the heavy minutes burden, Randle found another gear. Still, this is his first postseason. The pressure — both internal and external from the opposing defenses — will intensify. We’ll see how he reacts. Collins is an athletic scorer who is auditioning for a big contract in the offseason.
EDGE: Knicks.
CENTER
Stats: Noel (5.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.2 bpg); Capela (15.2 ppg, 14.3 rpg, 2.0 bpg).
Noel has filled in admirably since Mitchell Robinson broke his foot, and he will serve as a deterrent to Young driving to the hoop. But Capela is on another level, justifying that five-year, $90 million deal he signed in 2018. Capela posted 48 double-doubles this season, or 46 more than Noel.
EDGE: Hawks
BENCH
Derrick Rose/Alec Burks/Taj Gibson vs. Lou Williams/Danilo Gallinari/De’Andre Hunter
Breakdown:
Atlanta has a lot of offensive firepower on its bench between Williams, the three-time Sixth Man of the Year, and Gallinari, the Italian sharpshooter. They’re both in their 30s and slowing down, but can light up the scoreboard if they get going. Hunter is a wild card after missing most of March and April with a knee injury. He could also return to the starting lineup and replace Huerter, depending how he looks after such a long layoff.
Rose and Burks have carried the Knicks’ offense in stretches this season. Both benches are capable of altering the game.
EDGE: Even
COACH
Tom Thibodeau vs. Nate McMillan
Breakdown:
Both coaches have turned around their respective franchises. Both have a history of success and both are known for their defensive expertise. McMillan, however, is combating a reputation of failing in the playoffs, with a 17-36 career record in the postseason and just one series win in 17 seasons. Thibodeau’s playoff record isn’t spectacular at 24-32, but he got the Bulls to the conference finals and has won four series.
EDGE: Knicks
