What do we know about the coronavirus delta variant in Idaho? 5 questions answered

As COVID-19 cases rise in Idaho, public health officials are sounding the alarm that the delta variant is present and likely will continue to spread in the state.

The highly contagious variant, which was first discovered in India, has spread globally and now accounts for 83% of cases in the U.S., Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said on Tuesday. Here’s what we know about the new virus strain.

How do officials test for the delta variant?

Testing capacity is limited, so Idaho health officials have struggled to determine the number of delta variant cases. That’s because testing for a variant requires looking at genetic variations of the virus.

Dr. Christine Hahn, state epidemiologist, said Tuesday that the VA Medical Center has been helping the state with polymerase chain reaction testing, which allows officials to test for presence of the virus. The state is asking for hospitals and labs to send samples of genes with a strong positive signal on PCR — variants are more likely to have a stronger signal, with higher levels of the virus.

How prevalent is the delta variant in Idaho?

The short answer is, health officials don’t know.

Of the 284 samples Idaho officials have been able to test, 26 contained the delta variant, a rise from the nine cases previously reported. Officials also caution that the low number doesn’t necessarily translate to its prevalence. They hope to ramp up testing so they can begin to get a clearer picture.

Hahn attributed the numbers to the limited testing in Idaho.

“We’ve been discouraged that some people have interpreted our low numbers as thinking we don’t really have that variant here, or not very much of it,” Hahn said. “We’re hoping that Idahoans understand this as a warning that we do have delta here. We do have the numbers increasing.”

How contagious is the delta variant?

Compared to the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, the delta variant is over two times more contagious, said Dr. Jim Souza, St. Luke’s chief physician executive. It’s at least 50% more contagious than the alpha variant, which began in the UK and is prevalent in Idaho, Souza said.

Souza said the more a virus replicates itself, the closer to “perfect” it becomes. The delta variant is successfully producing far more virus particles for every infected individual.

“A single individual might be having replicative events that approach even a trillion,” Souza said. “That is giving this virus the opportunity to innovate and create new mutations that will make it even more perfect.”

What public health experts don’t know yet, Souza said, is whether the delta variant causes more severe disease.

Are the COVID-19 vaccines effective against delta?

Preliminary studies have shown that vaccines are still effective against the delta variant, though rates may be slightly lower compared to the original COVID-19 variant.

Dr. David Pate, a member of the governor’s coronavirus task force and former CEO of St. Luke’s, said all COVID-19 vaccines approved in the U.S. have shown to be about 94% effective at preventing severe disease — hospitalizations, use of ventilators and death — with the delta variant.

Preliminary data suggest the vaccines are also about 88% effective against symptomatic infection of delta, though the Johnson & Johnson shot might have lower effectiveness, Pate said.

The fact that more than 99% of those being hospitalized for COVID-19 in the U.S. are unvaccinated, despite the presence of the delta variant, goes to show the vaccines are working, Pate said.

“These are really effective vaccines,” Pate said. “This way exceeds the hope for the vaccine that I had in the first half of last year.”

At a press conference on Thursday, Dr. Steven Nemerson, chief clinical officer for Saint Alphonsus Health System, said that even if a vaccine offers diminished protection for certain existing variants, it still offers a lot of security. The vaccines protect everyone to some degree, he said.

“For some people, any of those vaccines are 100% protective against even the most extreme variant,” Nemerson said. “For others, they’re partially protected. … So get protected.”

Does the delta variant affect children differently?

The American Academy of Pediatrics on Monday recommended that all children older than 2 wear masks when they return to school — even if they’re vaccinated. Meanwhile, Idaho has relaxed public health restrictions around the COVID-19 vaccine, and school districts have indicated they won’t require masks or social distancing.

Idaho health officials haven’t seen a surge among children and it’s unclear whether the variant will prove a bigger threat for younger people. Hahn encouraged parents to vaccinate those 12 and older and said she fears a rise in cases once school is back in session.

“We are concerned that we might see spread of delta, as well as influenza and other respiratory viruses,” Hahn said, as in-person schooling returns with limited precautions. “Vaccination makes the best protection for parents that would like to send their kids for in-person school.”

Statesman reporter Ian Max Stevenson contributed.