Know the Foe: Wyoming vs. Toledo

Dec. 29—Kyle Rowland has covered University of Toledo football for the Toledo Blade since 2015. He weighs in on what University of Wyoming fans can expect during this weekend's matchup between the Cowboys and Rockets.

Toledo starting quarterback Dequan Finn hit the transfer portal shortly after the MAC title game. How much does that impact Toledo's offense, and who will start in his place?

Finn's absence negatively impacts Toledo's rhythm more so than him being irreplaceable, if that makes sense. Don't get me wrong, he's a dynamic quarterback, and he's contributed to Toledo's success, but he can also be wildly inconsistent, and his mistakes are usually game-changers. Finn is a fascinating player in that the national media overrates him and the UT fanbase makes him out to be terrible. He won't lift a Power Five school to the playoff, but he also isn't awful.

Backup quarterback Tucker Gleason has had his own big moments the past two seasons. Last year, he led Toledo to a win at Eastern Michigan in a game that decided the MAC West championship. In September, he led Toledo back from a double-digit third-quarter deficit over Western Michigan after Finn suffered an injury. Gleason, a Georgia Tech transfer, is not a typical backup where you're expecting a big dropoff in production. He throws better than Finn, and he can run, too. If Toledo loses to Wyoming, I don't think an ineffective offense will be the culprit.

The Rockets put together an 11-game winning streak going into the conference title game. How special of a season has it been for Toledo leading up to the bowl game?

It was more special before the MAC championship game. Despite winning 65% of his games and two conference titles, (coach) Jason Candle is a punching bag for the fans. Toledo is interesting because it's the epicenter of the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry. It's on the border of both states, and everyone in town likes one of those schools, but they all root for the Rockets. Toledo has the most resources in the MAC, and when your fans also root for Ohio State or Michigan, those same expectations translate. So, it's basically MAC title or bust every single season.

UT has certainly underachieved at times under Candle. Even he would admit that, but he's done well overall. ... For 11 games, everything broke right and Toledo did what it needed to eke out close games. Winning 11 straight games is difficult, no matter the opponents. The excitement really ratcheted up when Toledo entered the (Associated Press) Top 25. And then the possibility of making a New Year's Six bowl sent it into overdrive. Losing back-to-back games to end such a great season would definitely be a buzzkill for the fanbase.

Toledo was No. 1 in the MAC in total offense, passing offense and rushing offense. How balanced is the Rockets' attack, and what will Wyoming's defense need to do to slow it down?

Toledo's offense just gets things done. Earlier in Candle's career, it was high flying, and they would score a ton of points. They aren't nearly as impressive now, but they still get the ball in the end zone. The huge positive this year was the offensive line, which was at its best in quite a while. The unit has been maligned in recent seasons and was rarely healthy. It's a run-first unit this season with (running back) Peny Boone.

... The No. 1 objective playing the Rockets is to limit their running game. The MAC championship game is a blueprint. Miami's defensive line got after Toledo, Finn ran for his life, and Boone was mostly ineffective. Toledo's wide receivers (and tight end Anthony Torres) are solid, but they aren't elite at getting separation, so the threat of running, whether it's the quarterback or running backs, aids their offense.

Boone was this year's MAC offensive player of the year after rushing for 1,359 yards and 15 touchdowns, but entered the transfer portal Wednesday. How much of a loss is that for the Rockets' offense?

I think he's one of the most underrated players in the country. He didn't even become the starter until the third game, and that only happened because Jacquez Stuart suffered an injury. If Boone had been the day one starter, he probably would have been the nation's leading rusher. The Detroit native was a four-star recruit and originally went to Maryland, where played sparingly for two seasons. Boone and Finn were high school teammates, so Toledo became an obvious landing spot when he decided to transfer. ... During the offseason, he changed his diet and rededicated himself. He had a great attitude all season, and it showed on the field.

Boone isn't a guy who's going to run away from the defense. He has speed, but he's more of a powerful runner who runs through the defense. He's a difficult guy to tackle, and he's agile for a big guy. He's averaging nearly eight yards per carry this season, which is an eye-popping number. When he's playing well, Toledo is difficult to beat.

Toledo has the No. 3 scoring defense in the MAC at 20.6 points allowed per game. What will Wyoming's offense need to do to move the ball against the Rockets?

Run the ball. It's still unknown whether Quinyon Mitchell will play in the bowl game. I tend to think he will not. But even if the All-American cornerback is out, Toledo's secondary, from the corners to the safeties, is still stout. Mitchell takes it to another level.

The rush defense has been gashed at times this year, and Harrison Waylee has prior success (running and catching passes) against the Rockets. Andrew Peasley isn't Michael Penix, but he doesn't make many mistakes. Five interceptions is a minute number, so if Wyoming can run and Peasley is turnover free, that's a good recipe.

Wyoming is playing in the Arizona Bowl for the second straight season. Do you expect Toledo fans to travel well for this game, despite losing some key players to the transfer portal?

They should. There are a couple of things in Toledo's favor: direct flights from Toledo to Phoenix and a decent alumni base in Maricopa County. Now, I don't expect 10,000 UT fans, but I would think it'll be respectable. You get the combination of nice weather and a football game. If you're ever going to attend a bowl game, this is the one I would go to if I were a fan. Tucson hotels are also cheaper than Phoenix, which is a plus.

The Cowboys started as the underdog, but now have shifted to 3.5-point favorites over the Rockets. What do you expect to happen in this year's Arizona Bowl?

I think it's a coin-flip game. Some things benefit both offenses and defenses, but not an overwhelming amount. I'd be surprised if it was a blowout either way. I actually think Finn transferring and Gleason getting his opportunity as the starting quarterback will add a jolt of electricity for Toledo. Gleason is well-liked by his teammates, he's a great leader and the ultimate competitor. In an evenly matched game, special teams can have an outsized impact, as Toledo learned in the MAC title game. Turnovers are another equalizer, and Wyoming is one of the best in the nation in turnover margin. My official pick in The Blade is Toledo 30, Wyoming 28, but I think it could easily be flip-flopped.

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Alex Taylor is the assistant editor for WyoSports and covers University of Wyoming athletics. He can be reached at ataylor@wyosports.net. Follow him on X at @alex_m_taylor22.