Kremlin drags "Great Patriotic War" myths into its war with Ukraine – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Kremlin is using the myths of the so-called "Great Patriotic War" to draw imaginary parallels with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Source: the ISW

Details: The Kremlin's attempts to use the myths of the so-called "Great Patriotic War" (as the Russians call WWII, primarily the conflict between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany – ed.) to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine contradict the current level of mobilisation in Russia and the rhetorical attempts of Russian President Vladimir Putin to assure Russians that the war will not have long-term internal consequences.

The report recalls that the Russian publication Fontanka published an interview with the chairman of the defence committee of the State Duma of Russia Andrei Kartapolov on 9 January, in which he stated that even in the "victorious years of 1944-1945", Soviet troops faced difficulties, which prompted the interviewer to ask Kartapolov if Russia is now, figuratively speaking, in 1944-1945 (that is, on the verge of ending the war in Ukraine – ed.).

Analysts note that Kartapolov tried to expand the false analogy between the struggle of the Soviet Union against Nazi Germany and the unprovoked invasion of Russia in Ukraine, arguing that Russia is now, figuratively speaking, somewhere in December 1943 and going into 1944.

It is recalled that the Soviet military launched a series of successful offensive operations after a defensive victory in the battle of Kursk in July 1943 and by December 1943 reached the banks of the Dnipro river and Kyiv in Ukraine.

Kartapolov explained his logic by arguing that the Ukrainian troops failed in the summer of 2023 in a counterattack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, just as Nazi Germany suffered losses in battles in 1943.

The report concluded that Kartapolov's analogy makes little sense, especially given the fact that Russian forces have made no notable gains in recent months.

The interviewer asked Kartapolov if his analogy meant that Russia's war in Ukraine would end in 2024, leading the Russian official to admit that Russia's war in Ukraine and World War II could not be literally compared.

Kartapolov, however, continued to use allusions to World War II to assert that the Russian military would continue the war in Ukraine until they had hung a "banner over the Reichstag" (that is, until a complete victory in Ukraine that would meet all Putin's maximalist goals – ed.).

The review goes on to say that the Kremlin's frequent allusions to World War II are partly meant to disseminate the entirely false idea that modern-day Russia is capable of defeating its foes by using an overwhelming amount of manpower and equipment, much like the Red Army supposedly did with Nazi Germany.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 11 January:

• The Kremlin’s effort to use the mythos of the Great Patriotic War (Second World War) to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine is at odds with Russia’s current level of mobilisation and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetorical attempts to reassure Russians that the war will not have lasting domestic impacts.

• The Kremlin may be instructing actors in the Russian-backed breakaway republic of Transnistria to set information conditions for a possible false-flag operation in Transnistria as part of wider Kremlin efforts to destabilise Moldova.

• The Kremlin may also be reviving its efforts to leverage Transnistria to create instability in Moldova in order to undermine Ukrainian grain exports along the western coast of the Black Sea.

• Iran has reportedly developed a new Shahed drone for Russian forces to use against Ukraine and is "close" to providing Russia with surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and systems.

• European Union (EU) Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton stated that the EU will be able to supply Ukraine with one million shells by spring 2024.

• Lithuania announced a new long-term military aid package to Ukraine worth €200 million (about $220 million) on 10 January.

• Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut and Donetsk City and in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire front.

• Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov stated on 10 January that the Russian military plans to reorganise the five existing naval infantry brigades of Russia’s fleets into naval infantry divisions and the Caspian Flotilla’s naval infantry regiment into a naval infantry brigade in the medium-term.

• Russian authorities continue to deport prisoners from prisons in occupied Ukraine to Russia and are likely using penal colonies as part of widespread efforts to collect data on Ukrainian citizens.

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