Kremlin wants to replace Wagner mercenaries with Kadyrovites in war against Ukraine – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assumed that the Kremlin intends to replace the Wagner PMC mercenaries with Kadyrovites (the troops of Ramzan Kadyrov – ed.) in its offensive operations in Ukraine – after the Wagner Group retreats from Bakhmut.

Source: the ISW

Details: The Institute noted that the Russian military command probably ordered the troops of Kadyrov, the Head of the Chechen Republic, to launch offensive operations in Ukraine after the withdrawal of the Wagner PMC forces from Bakhmut.

Analysts pointed out that Kadyrov said on 31 May that Kadyrovites had got new orders and assumed responsibility for the front line in Donetsk Oblast.

He also said that Chechen units should start "intensive combat activities" and "liberate a number of settlements".

Kadyrov added that the Akhmat Special Forces and Sever-Akhmat Special Purpose Regiment had been sent to the Marinka front, southwest of Donetsk.

In addition, the Russian Defence Ministry stated that the assault units of the 5th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and Akhmat Special Forces are conducting offensive operations on the Marinka front.

The ISW reported that as of the time of writing the review, it has not noticed any signs of Chechen offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia or Kherson.

The Institute pointed out that Chechen forces were mainly operating in the rear after taking part in the battles for Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk; the exception was some offensive actions in and around Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast.

The ISW also studied how Kadyrovites acted as police force in the rear in Ukraine's south and conducted local intelligence operations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

"Chechen units’ limited participation on the front lines alongside Kadyrov’s heavy emphasis on recruitment may suggest that Kadyrov is hesitant to commit his forces to grinding offensive operations in Ukraine despite his ultranationalist narratives," the ISW concluded.

The ISW also added that if Kadyrov's statements about 7,000 of their fighters being in Ukraine were close to the truth, his forces would not be able to successfully conduct several significant offensive operations.

According to ISW, the Kremlin may also try to sever ties between Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner PMC, and restore federal authority over Chechen forces.

To quote the ISW's key takeaways for 31 May:

• The Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine following the withdrawal of Wagner Group forces from Bakhmut.

• The Kremlin may also be attempting to sever Kadyrov’s relationship with Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and re-emphasize federal authority over Chechen forces.

• The official Russian responses to recent attacks against Russia remain likely insufficient to satisfy the Russian ultranationalist information space’s desire for escalation in the war.

• Russian forces conducted ground attacks northwest of Svatove and south of Kreminna.

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

• Russian forces continue to concentrate in southern Ukraine.

• The Russian State Duma appears to be considering measures to legalise the military recruitment of current or formerly incarcerated Russian men.

• Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lyubinets announced that Ukraine has a new avenue to repatriate Ukrainian children abducted to Russia.

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