Kris Kobach wins primary race for Kansas attorney general. His comeback isn't complete yet.

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.

The parental wisdom has been dispensed at kitchen tables over the years — and it also has informed Kris Kobach's political career.

On Tuesday night, it paid off.

Indeed, Kobach's victory in the Republican primary for attorney general Tuesday showed his unique brand still holds sway with Republican voters, though it remains to be seen how he will fare in the general election.

His victory over Sen. Kellie Warren, chair of the Kansas Senate Judiciary Committee, and former federal prosecutor Tony Mattivi was still relatively close, showing that Warren almost was able to leverage a late charge to victory.

When Warren conceded victory at 11:25 p.m., Kobach had a 15,000 vote lead.

But Kobach had a plurality of votes, leading with 42% of the vote to 35% for Warren. Mattivi held 20%.

Kobach's last two races led to ignominious defeat, most recently a loss to U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall in the 2020 primary for the U.S. Senate seat formerly held by Pat Roberts.

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But he still has some ways to go before vindicating his 2018 general election loss to Gov. Laura Kelly, a result that dogged Kobach in the bruising attorney general primary.

With a well-funded Democrat, Chris Mann, waiting in the wings, Kobach has said he is ready for the general election.

"It's really hard to compare 2018 to 2022," he told The Capital-Journal on Tuesday. "I expect that there will be a strong tailwind not just for me, but for all Republicans."

But while Republicans still fear his polarizing brand could be a detriment in the coming months, others note Kobach's comeback bid was always likely to succeed.

"I think most of Republicans expected that, with a three-way race, Kris Kobach would likely prevail," said Kelly Arnold, a former chair of the Kansas Republican Party. "I mean, he has ran statewide multiple times, has built up his name ID over the years. ... There's no surprise that he won this race."

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Could the tough AG primary hurt Republicans in November?

Kobach's victory comes after a late charge from Warren, whose campaign and political allies spent big in the final weeks of the campaign to promote her candidacy.

Warren ramped up her presence on the airwaves and also rolled out major endorsements from U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall and former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Throughout the course of the campaign, Warren and her backers spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to either boost her bona fides or attack Kobach.

The Kansas chapter of Americans for Prosperity, which backed Warren, spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on a digital ad campaign.

A Virginia-based outside group entered the fray in mid-July, spending $40,000 on ads supporting Warren and another $40,000 on commercials attacking Kobach, including one where they compared his legal defeats as secretary of state to a Democrat and said it was "time to put Kobach out to pasture."

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At one point, Warren's campaign even enlisted a Georgia law firm to threaten to sue Kobach over claims he made in an ad that Warren gave to a Democratic candidate in Kansas City, Kan., even though the origin of the donation was Warren's husband.

Kobach returned the favor, frequently attacking Warren, a property lawyer in Johnson County, as a "homeowner's lawyer" without the experience needed for the job.

The Republican establishment in the Legislature largely coalesced around Warren, while more than 40 local prosecutors and sheriffs, as well as the Kansas State Troopers Association, backed Mattivi.

Mattivi's presence in the race rankled many Warren backers, who felt his presence would serve as an obstacle to denying Kobach the nomination. The fact that he earned 20% of the vote will likely only frustrate.

"I think he only serves to spoil the race," Senate President Ty Masterson, R-Andover, a Warren backer, said in June.

Still, days before the election, Kansas Chamber CEO Alan Cobb said he was optimistic in Warren's chances.

"I think she's running a great campaign and she has a lot of support," he said.

On Tuesday night, Kobach said he was hopeful the Chamber — a longtime foe — would back him.

"The chamber will not be able to pull my strings," he said. "And I think they were hoping for someone other than me."

Kris Kobach victory capitalizes on unique base

But experts say Kobach's return is a testament to the increasingly conservative Republican Party, a stable base and high name recognition.

Polls throughout the race showed Kobach with a relatively steady crop of support, along with a healthy group of undecided voters that were yet to make up their minds.

That's despite a notorious tenure as secretary of state, including a federal judge ordering him to take continuing legal education classes in 2018 as part of a failed attempt to defend a law requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote.

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"Kobach has a base similar to former President Trump's base," said Michael Smith, a professor of political science at Emporia State University. "They're with him win or lose."

There were signs Kobach was less brash in his campaigning — he did not, for instance, flash replica guns on the back of a Jeep during parades, like he did during his 2018 campaign for governor. And while his policy positions remain conservative, he was often matched in his viewpoints by either Warren or Mattivi, or both.

Still, Kobach's campaign treasurer was Laura Tawater, chair of the 1st Congressional District Republicans, who the Kansas Reflector reported was in Washington on the day of the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

And his platform included several unique flourishes, most notably a civil litigation team specifically tasked with suing President Joe Biden's administration. It is modeled on a similar idea in Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's office.

Bob Beatty, a professor of political science at Washburn University, noted that while the result was relatively close, Kobach will ultimately be unbothered by the end result.

"He's a battler," he said.

Democrats pin their hopes on Chris Mann in general election

But Democrats have been pinning their hopes in the race on exploiting Kobach's potential weaknesses.

Indeed, the intense political warfare between Kobach and Warren could feed directly into Democrat Chris Mann's strategy.

"It wouldn't surprise me ... just based upon legal competence and ability if a lot of moderate Republicans and responsible establishment Republican lawyers and their friends end up voting for Chris Mann," said Rep. John Carmichael, D-Wichita. "Because indeed, the Republican Party has shot themselves in the foot in the primary."

Mann, a private practice attorney in Lawrence who also worked as a police officer and prosecutor outraised every Republican candidate in the most recent campaign finance reporting window and he won't have had to exhaust those funds, as he lacked a primary opponent.

"Kansans will have a clear choice for Attorney General this fall, between a politician and a public servant,” Mann said in a statement Tuesday night. “The stakes are too high to entrust the top law enforcement office in Kansas to a politician."

Smith said he expected Mann to start splashing the cash to take on Kobach very quickly.

"You're gonna see the Democratic candidate jump in at that point and just try to almost create a continuity between Warren's message and their own, with very little time loss," he said.

But Arnold said he expected Republicans to have no trouble coalescing around Kobach in time for the general election.

"By November, we will be united. We hope, for the Republican Party, that we do that," he said. "We do not want to have a Democrat attorney general. That would be not assuming the best interest of what we believe Kansas values are."

Andrew Bahl is a senior statehouse reporter for the Topeka Capital-Journal. He can be reached at abahl@gannett.com or by phone at 443-979-6100.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kris Kobach won Kansas' Republican attorney general primary election