Kristian Winfield: All eyes on Ben Simmons’ contract as Nets head into free agency with big financial questions

NEW YORK — If the Nets aren’t making a move that firmly puts them back in the championship hunt, they will have to make some difficult decisions to ensure they do not broach the second apron, a new addition to the collective bargaining agreement that stiffens penalties for teams with an exorbitant payroll.

Teams that spend in excess of $180 million in player salaries this season — like the Phoenix Suns, and their new core four of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Deandre Ayton — will be met with severe roster-building handicaps with implications that span multiple seasons.

The handicaps include the inability to trade a draft pick seven years out, the inability to use a mid-level exception, the inability to receive more incoming salary than outgoing in a trade, and the inability to sign a player whose contract worth $12.2 million or more was bought-out.

It’s exactly why a team like the Atlanta Hawks straight-up dumped John Collins, who was on the hook for another $78 million over the next three seasons, in a deal with the Utah Jazz for veteran forward Rudy Gay and a future second-round pick.

The Hawks had $169 million on the payroll before the Collins deal. Now, they have some flexibility with Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Onyeka Okongwu and Saddiq Bey each entering the final year of their respective contracts.

Things are a bit more complicated than a salary dump for the Nets, who continue to hold out hope that Ben Simmons will return back to his All-Star form after two consecutive seasons were derailed by back injuries.

Simmons, who arrived in Brooklyn as part of the 2022 James Harden trade with the Philadelphia 76ers, is on the hook for another $77 million over the next two seasons. He did not play at all, citing back issues, in the season he arrived, then missed the entire second half of this past season due to a nerve impingement in his lower back.

And as expected, he didn’t look like much of a star while he was on the floor. Visibly restricted by his back condition, Simmons averaged just seven points, six rebounds and six assists through 42 games. His numbers were the worst of any player earning at least $30 million last season.

Much like Collins’ production was among the worst of any player earning at least $20 million last season.

So what will the Nets do with Simmons?

Simmons’ trade value has dumped even further since it plummeted after his nightmare playoff series against the Atlanta Hawks. His offensive game remains limited, and last season, the back injury diminished his athletic ability beyond recognition. Back injuries are also fickle: A player can be on the mend one day then out indefinitely the next.

Simmons’ teammate and countryman, Patty Mills, gave an all-too familiar status report over the weekend.

“From what I’ve heard, he’s looking after his body and getting to his shape and health that I think everyone wants and needs him to be,” he told a small group of reporters in Sunset Park on Saturday. “So I think first and foremost for him, it’s just about getting to that part where he can be Ben again.

“Obviously a full offseason of healthy rehab, healthy workouts both in the gym and on the court, I think is what he’s looking at. From what I’ve heard, he’s looking good, feeling good, and we’ll see how we roll out from then. But I think until then, we’ve just gotta wait and see.”

The Nets, however, can ill-afford to “wait and see” given the second apron and its ramifications. If they decide to be patient with Simmons, they must, in turn, be hasty elsewhere on the roster.

As it stands, Brooklyn is entering Friday’s free-agency kickoff with $150.85 million in player salaries for the 2023-24 NBA season. Simply matching a competing offer on restricted free agent Cam Johnson could bring that payroll to $176 million — closer to $180 million if the Detroit Pistons make the reported offer of greater than $25 million in annual salary over a four-year deal.

That’s a lot of money to spend on a team that was swept out of the first round by the Philadelphia 76ers last season.

The Nets, however, must also consider the summer of 2025, a free-agency period in alignment with the expiration of Simmons’ contract. LeBron James, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, Lauri Markkanen, Jrue Holiday and OG Anunoby are all on pace to become unrestricted free agents when Simmons’ cap hit comes off the books, not to mention the projected salary cap spike pending from the broadcast deals set to be renegotiated the same summer.

With a core of Bridges, Johnson, and presumably one more star-caliber player, the Nets could suddenly find themselves with cap space to go after a max free agent like Davis or Markkanen.

Considering Brooklyn’s draft capital, that is a surefire route toward building a contender.

There are other avenues the Nets can and will explore to shed salary to avoid the second apron this summer: Royce O’Neale’s contract is only guaranteed for $2.5 million of his $9.5 million salary before July 10, but if the Nets really wanted to move on from his contract, they would find no shortage of championship-contending suitors willing to offer draft compensation in exchange for his services.

The same can be said for three-and-D wing Dorian Finney-Smith, who has three years worth $44.2 million left on his deal, plus a 5% trade kicker to boot. Finney-Smith could be a valuable piece for a playoff team in need of floor spacing and defensive versatility. The Nets could find a suitor in exchange for draft compensation in a pinch.

The issue with dealing those players, of course, is that losing them categorically makes the Nets a worse team, and the Nets want to remain both entertaining and competitive. Joe Harris is also in the final year of his deal and is due $19.9 million this season, and Spencer Dinwiddie is in the final year of his contract and is owed more than $20 million in guaranteed salary this season. Dinwiddie and his deal would likely be the highlight of any blockbuster trade that brings a lead guard like Damian Lillard to Brooklyn.

And the Nets might not need a star point guard at all if Simmons can be healthy and initiate offense for them.

Whether or not the Nets can afford to be patient with Simmons hinges on the kind of offers Johnson receives on the open market, as well as Brooklyn’s willingness to part ways with battle-tested, proven veterans solely to give Simmons a third opportunity to live up to his contract.