KU basketball prediction & odds: Why Dajuan Harris could step up vs. Oklahoma State

The No. 8-ranked University of Kansas men’s basketball team will host Oklahoma State on Tuesday.

The Jayhawks (16-4, 4-3 Big 12) lost to Iowa State on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Cowboys beat West Virginia.

Kansas has a 124-60 record all-time against OSU. KU beat Oklahoma State 90-66 earlier this month.

Below is a scouting report and prediction of Tuesday’s game...

No. 8 Kansas vs. Oklahoma State

When/where: 8 p.m. Tuesday, Allen Fieldhouse (Lawrence)

TV/Streaming: ESPN

Opponent’s record: 9-11, 1-6 Big 12

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 118

Betting line: KU -16.5

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Oklahoma State Team Strengths

• Quality defense: OSU ranks No. 85 in adjusted defensive efficiency (101.3). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the amount of points given up per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. By comparison, Kansas ranks No. 25 in the same category.

• Limit fouls: The Cowboys are great at playing defense without fouling, with an opposition free-throw rate of (28.7%), ranking No. 71 overall.

• Two-point makers: Oklahoma State ranks No. 101 in 2-point percentage (52.3).

Oklahoma State Team Weaknesses

• Turnover galore: OSU ranks No. 303 in turnover percentage (19.5).

• Free-throw struggles: The Cowboys are shooting an abysmal 67.3% at the line, ranking No. 313. Meanwhile, KU ranks No. 78 in the same category.

• Minutes turnover: OSU didn’t bring back many familiar faces, with the team ranking No. 269 in minutes continuity percentage (27.5%).

Oklahoma State Name to Know

6–foot-3 junior guard Javon Small (No. 12)

+ Leading scorer (13.9 ppg)

+ Elite rebounder for his size (5.4 rebounds per game)

+ Facilitator (4.6 APG)

+ Good shooter (shooting 40.6% from deep)

+ Quick hands (1 steal per game)

- Turnover prone (2.8 per game)

Tale of the Tape

This OSU team loves to shoot 3-pointers, ranking No. 37 in 3-point rate (45.1%).

Here, the ball was passed to Jarius Hicklen, who pump-faked a WVU defender to create space and drained the 3-pointer.

Hicklen is shooting 42.1% from deep, so KU needs to get in his airspace and not fall for his pump fakes; otherwise, he could make Kansas pay.

The key for the Jayhawks will be to call out ball screens and run him off the line whenever possible. This is especially notable coming on the heels of a loss in which Kansas allowed Iowa State to shoot 14-for-30 (46.7%) from 3.

Game prediction

This game should be over midway through the second half.

Although OSU looks better than it did in the first meeting with Kansas, it’ll be an uphill battle for the Cowboys to upset the Jayhawks. KU’s defense will be an issue for a Cowboys offense that turns the ball over a lot and doesn’t convert free throws.

As for Kansas’ offense, the key will be to control the pace and limit turnovers.

Overall, OSU lacks the offensive firepower to compete with the Jayhawks. The first meeting was a 24-point blowout win for KU in Stillwater. Once again, I think KU wins in a blowout.

Kansas 71, Oklahoma State 59

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: OSU (+16.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 13-5

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 10-8

KU Player to watch: Dajuan Harris

Kansas point guard Dajuan Harris hasn’t had the best season so far; he even admitted so on Monday.

“The best is still yet to come. I’m ready for the best to come. I’ve got to continue to be ready to play my game and be ready to step up for my teammates,” Harris said.

He had arguably his second-best game of the season against Iowa State, when he dropped nine points on 4-of-6 shooting with seven assists, two turnovers and two steals in 38 minutes.

KU needs that version of Harris to show up more often — the version who isn’t afraid to shoot and be aggressive offensively. Let’s see if he can do it again on Tuesday night.