Will KU hoops defeat defending national champion UConn? Here’s a prediction (and odds)

Shreyas Laddha
·4 min read

The No. 5-ranked University of Kansas men’s basketball team will host No. 4 UConn at Allen Fieldhouse on Friday.

The Jayhawks (6-1) escaped with a win against Eastern Illinois on Tuesday, while the Huskies demolished New Hampshire.

KU is 3-0 all-time against UConn.

Here’s our scouting report and prediction for Friday night’s game:

No. 5 Kansas vs. No. 4 UConn

When/where: 8 p.m. Central Time at Allen Fieldhouse

TV/streaming: ESPN2

Opponent’s record: 7-0

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: 345

Betting line: Kansas is a two-point favorite.

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

UConn Team Strengths

  • Elite offense: The Huskies rank No. 6 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (120.3), points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. Plus, they are No. 14 in effective field-goal percentage (57.8).

  • Inside the arc shotmakers: UConn is second in the nation in two-point percentage (65.9%).

  • Offensive glass savants: The Huskies are excellent at getting second-chance opportunities, ranking No. 6 in offensive rebounding percentage (42.1).

UConn Team Weaknesses

  • Deep-ball issues: Their roster is filled with formidable shooters, but the Huskies have struggled from deep, shooting just 30.9% from 3-point range.

  • Perimeter defense: UConn hasn’t been stout in defending teams from beyond the arc, either, allowing opponents to shoot 34.1%. That ranks No. 229 overall.

  • Inferior competition: So far, the Huskies haven’t exactly faced the most formidable opponents. Their strength of schedule ranks No. 349 overall.

UConn Name to Know

6-foot-5 senior guard Tristen Newton (No. 2)

+ Quality scorer (15.5 ppg)

+ Elite rebounder for a guard (8.1 per game)

- Good facilitator (6.9 assists per game)

- Struggles from deep (29% from 3-point range)

Tale of the Tape

UConn has elite rim protection, with opponents shooting just 48.3% at the rim and getting blocked 20.5% of the time.

In a recent in-game sequence, the Huskies demonstrated how their stellar interior defense leads to easy offense. UConn’s Samson Johnson blocked a shot, Newton got the rebound and then it was off to the races. He found a streaking teammate, who passed inside to guard Cam Spencer, who drew a foul.

Between Donovan Clingan and Samson Johnson, the Huskies have two elite shot blockers. The Jayhawks should be wary of them. KU needs to protect the ball on drives, too. If a Jayhawk’s shot is blocked, everyone must hustle back in transition to prevent fast-break points for UConn.

Newton is fearless when driving to the basket. And he’s efficient, too, shooting 62.1% at the rim.

KU guards Dajuan Harris and Elmarko Jackson have their work cut out for them against Newton. The key will be staying in front of him when possible and forcing him to shoot 3-pointers. That’s better than letting him take it to the rim, as he’s shooting just 29.6% from deep.

Game Prediction

UConn might be the most formidable opponent Kansas faces all year.

On the offensive end, Dickinson has to win his matchup against Clingan. On top of that, the Jayhawks need to hit more 3-pointers than they did against Eastern Illinois (when they made just three).

On the defensive end, KU must defend the paint well and keep the Huskies off the board. It’ll be a tall task for KU to win the rebounding battle, but at the very least, the Jayhawks can’t let UConn dominate them on the boards.

Allen Fieldhouse will likely play a factor, helping Kansas against this young UConn team.

I think Kansas wins in a close one.

Kansas 78, UConn 75

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-2)

Shreyas’ season record: 5-1

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 5-1

KU Player to watch: Dajuan Harris

Harris will be a pivotal player on both ends for the Jayhawks.

Defensively, he must limit one of UConn’s two leading scorers (Cam Spencer or Newton).

Offensively, he can’t be hesitant to shoot the ball. The Huskies will dare him to do so, and Harris should oblige — ideally, with success. Otherwise, added pressure falls on Dickinson and/or Kevin McCullar against this talented Huskies squad.