KU Jayhawks will be tested by elite defense in top-10 game vs. Tennessee: Prediction

The No. 1-ranked University of Kansas men’s basketball team — at least for now — will play No. 7 Tennessee for third place in the Maui Invitational on Wednesday.

The Jayhawks (4-1) lost badly to Marquette on Tuesday. It was the Jayhawks’ first loss of the year and came to a familiar foe in coach Shaka Smart.

On the other side of the bracket, Tennessee fell to Purdue, preventing a matchup between National Player of the Year candidates in big men Hunter Dickinson (Kansas) and Zach Edey (Purdue).

Below is a scouting report and prediction of Wednesday’s game.

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 7 Tennessee

When/where: 1:30 p.m. Central, Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu

TV/Streaming: ESPN

Opponent’s record: 4-1

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) ranking: No. 7

Betting line: Kansas -1.5

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Tennessee team strengths

• Elite defense: Tennessee ranks first in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (86.5), points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent.

• Stellar perimeter defense: The Vols have held opponents to 25.9% shooting from deep, ranking No. 38 nationally.

• Plenty of veterans: Tennessee ranks No. 25 in Division I experience (2.74 years on average).

Tennessee team weaknesses

• Struggles on the glass: Tennessee ranks No. 156 in offensive rebounding percentage (30.6%)

• Scoring issues inside the arc: The Vols shoot 48.6% on 2-point shots, good for No. 216 in the country.

• Foul issues: Tennessee tends to foul opposing teams a lot, with opposing teams having a 40.4% free throw rate. That ranks No. 280 in the country.

Tennessee name to know

6-foot-6 senior guard Dalton Knecht (No. 3)

+ Team-leading scorer (18.4 points per game)

+ Sharpshooter (43.5% from deep)

- Not much of a passer (1.6 APG)

- Turnover prone (2.0 turnovers per game)

Tale of the Tape

If there’s one area Knecht likes to shoot, it’s at the rim — nearly half of his shot attempts come at the rim (46%). According to Hoop-Math.com, he’s shooting 65.2% in that area.

In this instance, the Vols star came off a nice screen, caught a pass and cut through the center of the paint to make a tough layup. Kansas’ biggest worry will be to make sure Knecht’s defender doesn’t fall asleep. KU’s big men will also need to step up defending the rim, something Purdue struggled with at times.

Also of note, Kansas struggled limiting its turnovers vs. Marquette, and it won’t get any easier vs. the Vols. Tennessee ranks No. 54 in steal percentage (7.1). Here, Vols guard Zakai Zeigler quickly blew up a sloppy pass and turned it into a fast-break bucket.

It’s something the Vols do often.

What the numbers say: Tennessee records a field-goal attempt at the rim 57.1% of the time within the first 10 seconds after a steal. So that means KU must get back in transition to defend the rim. It’s a safe bet the Volunteers will go for an easy layup instead of shooting a 3-pointer.

Game prediction

This game will test KU’s offense. Kansas has struggled to produce outside of its core four players (KJ Adams, Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris and Kevin McCullar), but against Tennessee, the Jayhawks will need a fifth player to step up.

Expect each offensive possession for Kansas to be a challenge. KU needs to get the Vols, who struggle playing defense without fouling, into foul trouble.

That could help Kansas get to the rim more freely.

Conversely, KU’s defense must force an inefficient UT team to score over shot contests inside the arc. For that, Kansas should win this game, because I don’t think Tennessee has the offense to match its stellar defense.

Prediction: Kansas 74, Tennessee 68

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas

Shreyas’ season record: 3-1

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 3-1

KU Player to watch: Johnny Furphy

Out of KU’s bench players, Johnny Furphy has the highest potential. He’s shown flashes of being a good player but has yet to put it all together.

Well, it’s time for Furphy to showcase his scoring prowess. Kansas desperately needs a fifth guy to step up, and right now the Australian national looks more ready to contribute than fellow freshman Elmarko Jackson.

If Furphy can splash a couple of 3s and make the right basketball decisions, it’ll go a long way to secure a victory for Kansas. Not to mention, it’ll earn him more rotation minutes.