Kyrsten Sinema has worst fundraising quarter in 3 years, raising doubts about reelection

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema ended 2023 with her worst fundraising quarter in three years, spending more than she took in and showing few signs of a campaign gearing up for reelection.

Sinema, I-Ariz., collected $595,000, a figure that was her lowest since the beginning of 2021 and lower than any quarter during her first Senate campaign in 2017 and 2018, when donation limits were lower than they are now.

In the final three months of 2023, her campaign spent $797,000, much of it on travel and security, not polling and outreach expenses.

The numbers filed late Tuesday may only deepen doubts about her viability in a race where Sinema hasn’t formally said whether she will run again, and polling generally shows her 20 percentage points behind her challengers. She has until April to gather 42,000 signatures to qualify for the November ballot and has not yet filed preliminary paperwork to begin doing so.

"Kyrsten remains laser focused on continuing her work making a meaningful impact in the lives of Arizonans across the state — not on campaign politics," a Sinema spokesperson said. "She has the resources to keep delivering lasting results for Arizona."

For months, she has been centrally involved in the bipartisan negotiations for legislation related to border security and immigration changes, as well as funding for Ukraine in its war with Russia. House Republicans, along with former President Donald Trump, have signaled little interest in passing such a bill.

'It's a choice': Sinema-led border security deal heats up Arizona's Senate race

Perhaps the clearest expenses for a potential campaign were $26,000 spent on video production and a voter file subscription. By contrast, Sinema’s campaign reported $94,000 in travel and lodging costs and $189,000 in security expenses.

The campaign spent $125,000 on fundraising expenses, such as catering and consulting. It spent $141,000 on digital advertising.

Overall, Sinema’s cash total dipped slightly to $10.6 million, which likely tops all three of her prominent challengers, but has changed little over the past nine months.

Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., the only prominent Democrat in the race, has topped Sinema every quarter of the year since he entered the race. Republican front-runner Kari Lake also topped Sinema in her first quarter in the contest.

Gallego’s campaign said earlier this month he collected $3.3 million, about what his campaign has averaged each quarter in the first three reporting periods. He finished with $6.5 million in cash.

Lake took in $2.1 million in her first quarter in the race, a figure that ranks second nationally for Republican Senate challengers. She did not include her cash total.

Neither Gallego nor Lake had formally filed their fundraising reports, which are due Wednesday.

Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, another Republican in the race, has yet to report his fourth quarter numbers.

Once again, Sinema’s campaign was especially dependent on money from political action committees, a source she scarcely tapped at all during her 2018 campaign. Throughout that election cycle, Sinema took in about $3,500 from PACs.

In the final three months of 2023, Sinema collected $152,000 from them.

A full year since leaving the Democratic Party, Sinema’s once-stellar donor base has atrophied.

At the end of 2017 — the period comparable to the most recent quarter now — Sinema pulled in $1.3 million from individual donors and $314,000 of it came from those giving her less than $200.

This time, she raised $272,000 from individuals and $14,000 from small donors.

At the end of 2017, when Sinema’s campaign was moving ahead on a statewide run, she listed 11 paid employees who collectively received $111,000 during the final quarter of that year.

This time, she has four paid employees who took in less than $8,000.

Sinema’s $4 million cash advantage over Gallego likely needs to soar quickly if she intends to compete in November because the cost of Senate races in Arizona has mushroomed in recent years.

The late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., won his sixth and final term in 2016 in a race that cost all involved $31.7 million.

In 2018, Sinema and her Republican challenger, Martha McSally, each spent $25 million. Independent expenditures raised overall spending in that race to $115 million.

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., spent $93 million to win reelection in 2022 and overall spending in that race topped $309 million.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Is Kyrsten Sinema running for reelection? Fundraising may fuel doubts