Lake Mead swelled with winter runoff, but states will still bank Colorado River water

Water levels at Lake Mead are rebounding after a rare wet and snowy winter in the Colorado River's headwaters and should start 2024 nearly 18 feet higher than last January, government forecasters said Tuesday.

In years past, Arizona water users might have celebrated by diverting more river water into their canals and irrigating more land, because that elevation behind Hoover Dam eases the state’s mandatory shortage under federal guidelines negotiated in 2007.

Instead, with an eye toward arresting the reservoir’s long-term drying trend and avoiding disaster if drought roars back this winter, federal officials are paying tribes, farmers and cities to leave more water behind.

“I anticipate even less water coming out of Lake Mead,” Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke said.

Lake Mead's Jan. 1 water level is projected to reach more than 1,065 feet above sea level, and so on Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation said it would operate the river and its reservoirs under Level 1 shortage conditions in 2024, a step down from the Level 2 conditions imposed in 2023. Even so, next year's releases from Lake Mead to downstream users would be the lowest in 30 years, and about 1.5 million acre-feet lower than in an average year.

That’s because Arizona joined California and Nevada in proposing new cuts of 3 million acre-feet over the next three years, and federal programs funded under the Inflation Reduction Act are expected to reward users for saving 360,000 acre-feet of it next year in Arizona alone.

The bureau, which manages the river's water delivery system, intends to rewrite the shortage guidelines by 2026, when the current rules expire. The agency had asked the states to come up with at least 2 million acre-feet per year, which would be enough water for several million households.

For now, the states offered about half that amount and expect tough negotiations about who will take more cuts beginning in 2026. Winter snows that at least temporarily reversed Mead’s decline bought the states a buffer after what appeared to be crunch time a year ago.

That’s when Reclamation announced water-level projections that triggered “urgent action” under the 2007 guidelines, increasing Arizona’s reductions in Colorado River water from 512,000 acre-feet in 2022 to 592,000 acre-feet this year.

Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest reservoirs, now hold about 36% of their capacity, after having been essentially full in the late 1990s.

“As we experience a warmer, drier west due to a prolonged drought, accelerated by climate change, Reclamation is committed to leading inclusive and transparent efforts to develop the next-generation framework for managing the river system,” Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton said in a writte statement Tuesday.

Did Colorado River reservoirs rise above shortage levels?

If not for the compensated conservation programs for 2024, Lake Mead’s projected elevation would have allowed Arizona to claw back 80,000 acre-feet next year. Instead, Buschatzke said he expects Arizona to leave about 880,000 acre-feet behind in Lake Mead.

In a previously normal year, before two decades of regional drought, Arizona’s full share of the river was 2.8 million acre-feet. The cuts since then have fallen on users of the Central Arizona Project canal, including Pinal County farmers who have had to shift to groundwater or plant less acreage.

Lake Powell, upstream of Mead, likewise has risen out of the immediate danger zone in which dam managers feared the loss of hydropower production. At CAP’s Aug. 3 meeting, the agency’s river policy analyst, Orestes Morfin, told board members it appeared the water flowing into Lake Powell would finish this runoff season about 45% above its 30-year average. Flows from smaller sources between Powell and Mead, such as the Virgin and Muddy rivers, were also up sharply, he said.

“It’s not going to get us out of the tight spot that we’re in in the long run,” Morfin said, “but it certainly helps out in the short run.”

Two environmental groups that track Colorado River water issues, the Great Basin Water Network and Living Rivers, released a joint statement warning that without further reductions in water use, the region's warming will bring the system back to the brink soon enough. Money alone won't solve the problem when a warming climate is causing aridification, they warned.

“Climate change gives us very little breathing room to refill reservoirs,” said Kyle Roerink, who directs Great Basin Water Network. "More pain is coming for plant life, wildlife and human life, and I have little faith that water managers will take the proper long-term course to mitigate the hardship.”

The Gila River Indian Community announced last fall that it would conserve up to 125,000 acre-feet a year for three years in exchange for $400 an acre-foot from the federal government. “We can only survive this crisis if we put the entire system first, not our own interests,” GRIC President Stephen Roe Lewis said at that time.

Phoenix, Tucson, the Colorado River Indian Tribes and others also signed on, but GRIC’s commitment remains by far the largest, Buschatzke said. The money comes from a $4 billion pot from the Inflation Reduction Act that both of Arizona’s senators at the time said they had secured in that law’s passage.

Although a big chunk of that money — half or more — will go to short-term conservation payments, Buschatzke expects billions will be left to fund important water-saving and recycling projects for the long term.

To date, according to a Reclamation statement about the latest batch of investments on Monday, the IRA and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law have directed hundreds of millions of dollars to the cause, including $281 million for 21 water recycling projects.

Why Las Vegas is still targeting ornamental lawns

In metro Las Vegas, where there’s little farmland to fallow, the Southern Nevada Water Authority said it accelerating progress on reducing urban uses, especially on decorative grass.

The agency that governs Nevada’s share of the Colorado used 19% less water this year through July than it had in the same months last year, spokesman Bronson Mack said.

“We did have a mild June, which helped reduce outdoor water demands, so that certainly influenced this year’s usage,” Mack said. “However, we have a lot of grass being replaced in accordance with Nevada law, higher compliance with the watering schedule, golf courses removing grass, and new limits on evaporative cooling.”

Now the hard work begins to negotiate the deeper cutbacks that likely await in 2026. Arizona and Nevada officials told The Arizona Republic that the seven states that share the river were working on a joint letter to send Reclamation by the end of Tuesday, when the agency’s initial comment period in that process closes.

“Collectively, we need to turn our focus toward using less water and implementing new rules that can better adjust to what Mother Nature throws at us,” said Haley Paul, the Audubon Society’s Arizona policy director and co-chair of the Water for Arizona Coalition.

Besides splitting up water among the states, she said, the negotiations must grant tribes their rightful role in making decision about their water, and negotiators must seek to manage the river in ways that allow restoration of bird habitats in places like the Grand Canyon, the Lower Colorado River and the Colorado River Delta, she said.

“It’s a tall order, but we can do it,” Paul said in an emailed statement. “We have an opportunity to invest in water solutions like never before, thanks to federal and state recognition of the scale of the problem.”

Brandon Loomis covers environmental and climate issues for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Reach him at brandon.loomis@arizonarepublic.com or follow him on Twitter @brandonloomis.

Environmental coverage on azcentral.com and in The Arizona Republic is supported by a grant from the Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust. Follow The Republic's environmental reporting team at environment.azcentral.com and @azcenvironment on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

You can support environmental journalism in Arizona by subscribing to azcentral.com today.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Colorado River reservoirs gained storage, but states will still bank water