AT LARGE: Democrats face tough, but not impossible, task in midterm elections
With polls chronically underwater and the tides of history seemingly against them, Democrats appear destined to lose control of Congress in next year's midterm elections.
The party that prevailed in the previous presidential election almost always loses seats in the next election. Right now, the Democrats have a scant eight-seat majority in the 435-seat House of Representatives and are tied 50-50 in the Senate (with Vice President Kamala Harris casting tie-breaking votes). But things do not look good for them going into 2022.
Chances for Democrats are complicated by the gerrymandering now underway across the country in the wake of the 2020 Census, which mandated congressional redistricting of seats in all 50 states. Legislatures in states controlled by Republicans, which are the majority of them, are busy creating more and more districts favorable to their party and everything else being equal (which they aren't), that would be enough to swing the four seats needed for the GOP to take over the House.
Things for the Democrats in the Senate are somewhat less dire with gerrymandering not being a factor in statewide elections. Also, Republican retirements and competitive races will give the Democrats a fighting chance to retain control. We have one such race here in Alabama with longtime U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby retiring. But his seat is almost certainly to be won by a Republican in this ruby-red state.
The national economy almost always plays a major role in the outcomes of national elections and here we have a rather ironic situation in that the economy seems to be roaring back from its pandemic lows, but most voters are seemingly unaware of that fact.
Unemployment is at 4.2 percent, nearing historic lows and millions of new jobs have been created since President Joe Biden was sworn in 11 months ago. But polls show that most members of the electorate are unaware of that, or at least don't seem to care. The economic strength is likely to continue, and even accelerate, into the election year but it remains to be seen if that will make a difference in the elections.
Looming over the coming elections is, of course, the COVID-19 pandemic, which has claimed nearly 800,000 lives and could gain new energy as we enter the winter months. If the Biden administration is able to gain the upper hand on the pandemic by next summer and fall – and there is a good chance it will – that could put points on the board for the Democrats in the 2022 midterms.
But the wild card in next year's elections will be abortion. That is, the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in the case from Mississippi limiting legal abortion to the first 15 weeks of pregnancy. In a recent hearing before the court, a majority of the justices seemed willing to let the Mississippi law stand, which would be a potentially mortal blow to the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling of nearly a half century ago which legalized abortion in the United States.
A final ruling in the case is expected to be handed down in July, which will be right in the middle of the election season. If, as expected, the court overrules Roe, the fallout could be catastrophic for Republicans, the so-called pro-life party.
Here in the Heart of Dixie, of course, the demise of Roe would be applauded, but across the nation it would give Democrats, especially in swing districts and states, a potent campaign issue against Republicans, who could be portrayed as the court-packing, anti-women party.
Whether or not Democrats would be willing to make abortion a centerpiece in their election campaigns is an open question; the Dems have often not shown themselves to be willing to engage in the down-and-dirty kind of fight that would require.
But one can imagine the power of such a fight in the suburban districts of Philadelphia, Detroit and, yes, even Atlanta would have.
It would indeed be ironic if the legal end of abortion, which the right wing and Republicans have so long pined for, were to be the issue that turned the tide in the 2022 elections.
But, with deft handling by Democrats next year and strong backlash against the death of Roe, that could very well be the case.
Tommy Stevenson is retired associate editor of The Tuscaloosa News. Reach him at tommystevenson45@gmail.com or 205-292-2236.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: AT LARGE: Democrats face tough, but not impossible, task in 2022
