Larry Hogan, who won Maryland in 2014 and 2018, faces new terrain in the 2024 Senate campaign

In 2018, Larry Hogan followed a seldom-traveled route to become the first Republican in 70 years to be reelected Maryland governor. He prevailed by presenting a low-key brand of moderation to win critically needed, crossover Democratic votes in one of the nation’s bluest states.

Now, Hogan seems poised to adopt a similar approach in his recently announced U.S. Senate campaign, decrying partisan labels and distancing himself from the state Republican Party. But though he is navigating a similar path, the surrounding landscape looks different.

Unlike in 2014 and 2018, Hogan is running in a presidential election year. Analysts say the likely presence on the November ballot of Republican presidential contender Donald Trump — a polarizing figure who lost his 2020 reelection bid — may significantly boost Democratic turnout in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a ratio of more than 2-to-1.

Since Trump captured less than one-third of the vote in losing Maryland to Democrat Joe Biden, Hogan must again hope for large numbers of “ticket splitters,” said Todd Eberly, a St. Mary’s College political science professor.

“In 2018, they did that with him and [Democratic Sen. Ben] Cardin,” Eberly said, referring to voters willing to back candidates of rival parties in the same election.

But running for federal office will expose Hogan on a much broader scale to voter and media questions about such volatile issues as aid to Israel and Ukraine, gun violence, immigration and the southern border, and abortion on the national level.

“He’s not going to be able to skate on the abortion issue. At the national level, it’s an issue for everybody,” said Roger E. Hartley, dean of the University of Baltimore’s College of Public Affairs.

As governor, Hogan often said he was personally opposed to abortion — he vetoed a 2022 measure expanding who can legally perform abortions — but that the right to the procedure was “settled law” in the state. As a senator, he could be asked to vote on measures protecting, restricting or banning abortion nationally. He has said in TV interviews that he opposes a national ban.

“Federal dynamics are tough on things governors don’t have to answer for,” former Maryland lieutenant governor and MSNBC commentator Michael Steele said in an interview with The Baltimore Sun.

But Steele, a former state and national Republican chairman who supports Hogan, said the candidate enters the contest with “good name ID and brand” and “has been tried and tested by the Democratic establishment in this state and the Democratic voters in this state.”

Election 2024: Who’s running for Maryland’s open US Senate seat

Hogan’s entry into the race on Feb. 9 — the last day to file with the state — changed the look of a race that had been dominated by the Democratic primary campaign contest between Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and U.S. Rep. David Trone, the wealthy co-founder of the Total Wine & More retail chain.

An Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday showed Hogan and Trone tied at 42% in a hypothetical general election matchup as of Feb. 12-13. In a second matchup, Hogan held a 7-point lead over Alsobrooks. Her campaign said Thursday that her numbers would rise “when voters get to know Angela.” The survey reached 1,000 Maryland registered voters.

The candidates are vying for the seat Cardin is vacating with his retirement after this year.

John Teichert, a retired U.S. Air Force brigadier general from Anne Arundel County, was among the Republicans running, but dropped out of the race Friday and endorsed Hogan.

The last Republican elected to the U.S. Senate from Maryland was Charles Mathias in 1980.

No former or sitting governor sought a Senate seat in the 2022 elections. The lengthy list of those making the jump before then includes Senate Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Tim Kaine of Virginia, Tom Carper of Delaware, and Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire. Republican former governors in the Senate include Jim Risch of Idaho, John Hoeven of North Dakota and Mike Rounds of South Dakota. Independent Angus King of Maine also made the switch.

But former governors Linda Lingle of Hawaii, Phil Bredesen of Tennessee, and Steve Bullock of Montana all lost Senate bids in the last 12 years. Lingle is a Republican, and Bredesen and Bullock are Democrats.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a political newsletter, upgraded Republicans’ prospects for the open Maryland seat after Hogan entered the campaign. It had previously been scored as “Safe Democratic,” and is now rated as “Likely Democratic.” The newsletter, a nonpartisan service of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said it “has gone from a total snoozer of a race to one that national Democrats at least have to monitor and perhaps even fund, depending on how it develops.”

The national battle for control of the Senate could work against Hogan if Democratic voters believe their party’s majority is at stake, Hartley said.

Democrats hold a 51-49 Senate majority. One Senate Democrat in a red state — Manchin — has announced his retirement, posing a challenge for Democrats, who must also defend a handful of seats in states that Biden narrowly won in 2020.

“It’ll be part of the campaign,” Hartley said. He said either Trone or Alsobrooks, as the Democratic nominee, would likely emphasize that a Hogan victory could cost Democrats the Senate, or at least force the national Democratic Party to divert money to Maryland that it could have spent in other states.

But Hogan’s eight years as governor and anticipated fundraising ability make him formidable, analysts said. He has developed a national reputation as an opponent of Trump who is more moderate and less partisan.

“Larry can raise the money,” Steele said. “And how do the Democrats hold on to the votes they’ll need after what I think will be a very bruising primary?”

Trone, who is largely self-financed, reported spending $23.4 million through Dec. 31, and told The Sun in January that he might spend an additional $30 million before the May 14 primary.

Alsobrooks spent $726,000 in the final quarter of 2023 to bring her total campaign fundraising to $5 million and spending to $1.8 million since May, according to her Federal Election Commission report.

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