Latest COVID-19 subvariant BA.5 is sweeping through Louisville. Here's what to know

The BA.5 subvariant of COVID-19's omicron variant is the dominant strain in Louisville's wastewater, data from June 30 shows.

But though COVID-19 levels in the wastewater are near those reached during the worst of omicron's surge, hospitalizations remain relatively low.

Since March 12, weekly death totals have stayed mostly below 10, the lowest since last July.

Here's the latest on COVID-19 in Louisville and Kentucky as of July 7:

What?! Another variant?

Omicron's BA.5 variant is now the dominant strain not only in Louisville, but across the U.S., according to July numbers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The variant of concern is an offshoot of omicron, which itself is an offshoot of COVID-19, said Dr. Mark Burns, an assistant professor of medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University of Louisville.

Wastewater data shows BA.5 is in Louisville and has highest concentrations in Floyd's Fork.

"Viruses are smart," Burns said. "They know when they're being attacked and they do what they can to change whatever so they can survive."

COVID-19 has done that many times.

"It's to the point now, where this particular variant is actually starting to get pretty good at evading our vaccines and our protections," Burns said.

More: Potential case of monkeypox reported in Kentucky pending CDC identification

The BA.5 variant is more contagious than past renditions of the virus, Burns added. COVID-19 cases are up statewide, and he said we could see more hospitalization increases, as well, in the near future.

For now, CDC data shows relatively low hospital admissions for COVID-19 around the state. Omicron has generally caused less severe COVID-19 cases, but has been much more transmissible, the CDC has reported.

During the week of June 30, more than 40 of Kentucky's 120 counties had slipped into the red, or worst, zone. Guidance for people in red counties includes wearing masks indoors and limiting in-person indoor activities.

Where do Kentucky hospitalizations stand?

From the week of May 2 to the week of July 4, COVID-19 -related hospitalizations across the state gradually increased from 187 to 405.

For context, hospitalization admissions during the duration of the omicron surge hovered well above 1,000 every day from November 2021 to February. Weekly totals from May to early July have fallen well below those daily totals.

Gov. Andy Beshear said Thursday that reported cases have "somewhat stabilized," though not all tests are counted.

Take-home tests, for example, do not factor into the state's 15.75% positivity rate.

"If you're vaccinated, get boosted," Beshear said. "If you have all that, good, consider wearing the mask."

And, Beshear added, despite hospitalizations "ticking up" lately: "We don't see anything like any of the escalations that we have seen in the past."

Intensive care units are still seeing among the lowest totals of the whole pandemic as  are ventilator numbers.

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Dr. Ted Smith, the director of U of L's Center for Healthy Air, Water and Soil in the Envirome Institute, pointed out that Louisville is "not a community of fresh targets" for COVID-19.

The city has reported a total of 253,696 cases in the past two years and, additionally, 589,162 have at least a single vaccine dose of protection.

What the wastewater testing, which has been going on for two years, shows, Smith added, is an "uncoupling of acute infection ... from overall infection."

"We can have high levels, lots of people sick, but they're not very sick," he pointed out.

Louisville's COVID-19 dashboard shows weekly death totals have been under 10, with one exception, since March 26.

What about Kentucky vaccine rates?

As of July 5, 66% of Kentucky's population had received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, with 57% fully vaccinated and 26% with booster shots. Most vaccinated Kentuckians have received Pfizer shots.

In Louisville, 77% of people have received at least one dose of vaccine and 66% are fully vaccinated. 

Vaccines are still the best protection against COVID-19 in all its forms, Burns said, though protection from the shots "is really waning." Vaccines provide better protection, he said, than a prior infection of COVID-19.

Burns expects to see a new booster recommended sometime in the fall, but for now, he said, people should get vaccinated if they haven't done so.

"People who are fully vaccinated and boosted are the ones most protected," Burns said, "which means those are the ones that are more likely to not be hospitalized and not die."

More: Louisville researchers spoke with 34 moms who recently had a baby. Here's what they found.

If about 90% of the population had gotten vaccinated when the shots were first available, Burns said, the pandemic landscape would look very different now.

"I still believe if we had gotten enough people vaccinated in the beginning ... we wouldn't be at this point right now," he said. "I would be so confident to say that this virus would be in the rearview mirror and we would all be moving forward."

Reach health reporter Sarah Ladd at sladd@courier-journal.com. Follow her on Twitter at @ladd_sarah.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Latest COVID subvariant BA.5 is the dominant strain in Louisville