Latest COVID-19 variant less severe for Oregonians than prior variants

Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations have increased steadily in Oregon since the end of April as the omicron BA.2 subvariant wave swept the state, but state health officers say the severity of cases is much lower than during previous variants — and that is borne out in hospitalization data.

During the delta variant wave, which peaked in late summer 2021, daily cases peaked at about 2,600 with nearly 1,200 peak hospitalizations. Of those, more than 300 patients were in the ICU and 200 required ventilators. During January's omicron BA.1 variant wave, daily cases peaked at more than 9,600 and daily hospitalizations at more than 1,100. Of those, about 200 patients required ICU care and about 100 needed ventilators.

However, on Friday, during this current omicron BA.2 wave, hospitalizations were at about 300 with about 30 patients in the ICU and five on ventilators.

"It's really notable ... unlike every other past surge, we are not seeing significant increases in people in the ICU and especially people on ventilators," Oregon Health Authority Director Pat Allen told lawmakers during a legislative committee hearing Friday. "We are now really at that place where numbers of cases have really diverged from serious illness in the community, and that's really great news."

Allen said modeling from Oregon Health and Science University indicates as many as half of current COVID-19 hospitalizations are "incidental" cases, i.e. an individual comes to the hospital for a non-coronavirus reason, but tests positive for the disease while there.

"That's not free, because those patients still need to be dealt with in an advanced infection control environment, so there is a higher rate of consumption of PPE and all those kinds of things, but it's not as indicative of serious illness," Allen said.

There are several factors health officials attribute to likely having an impact on the lower number of ICU hospitalizations during the current wave, including: more widespread vaccination use; more individuals having been exposed to COVID-19 during a previous wave; and the BA.2 variant possibly being a less-dangerous version of COVID-19.

Officials said other variants have popped up around the nation and the world, but it's still too early to know how they might impact case counts, hospitalizations or deaths in Oregon.

In Lane County, BA.2 continues to be detected in the sewage of Cottage Grove, Florence and Eugene, but BA.3, BA.4 and BA.5 have yet to be detected

Case numbers difficult to track

While hospitalization numbers are consistently accurate, overall case numbers have been more difficult to track during the current wave.

Actual coronavirus case numbers could be four to 10 times higher than what is being reflected in state data, largely due to the prevalence of at-home tests, the results of which are mostly not being reported publicly, Allen said.

"We know that we're not capturing most cases by a large degree," Allen said. "What does remain accurate is these numbers can be used to tell what direction we're going."

Allen said the rate of newly reported cases has slowed over the past two weeks, and while he stopped short of declaring that cases had reached a peak (in part because the Memorial Day weekend's impact on tests conducted and reported), he suggested the state could be moving toward a different phase of the wave.

New forecasting from OHSU released Friday shows COVID-19 hospitalizations should peak around the end of next week at approximately 329 active cases.

Forecaster Peter Graven, lead data scientist at OHSU's Business Intelligence unit, said deaths are also much lower during the BA.2 wave compared to previous waves.

"When I'm thinking about positive news, that's what I'm looking at," Graven said. "Our number of deaths, and certainly deaths-per-symptom ... is really low."

Lane County may have reached its BA.2 peak

Lane County is mostly reflecting statewide trends. Last week, the county saw 1,009 cases, according to Lane County Public Health. Lane County's Senior Public Health Officer Dr. Patrick Luedtke said cases have been steadily climbing since April, but last week case numbers appeared to drop slightly.

"You never really know if you've peaked until it's in the rearview mirror. It may be that we are at least at a bit of a plateau, or maybe a little bit of a peak with regard to BA.2, the second sub variant of omicron," Luedtke said.

Two weeks ago, Lane County had 300 cases per 100,000. Last week that number dropped to 265.

"That's a fairly significant drop of about 10 percent, which is good," Luedtke said. "Hopefully the following week will be another 10 percent drop."

When the first omicron variant hit the county, cases peaked at 1,400. If cases drop for two consecutive weeks, then the area will have likely passed its peak, which would be 302, according to Luedtke. However, those who are not vaccinated, 65 or older, have a weakened immune system, underlying medical conditions or live with anyone in theses categories should continue to use caution and avoid the virus as much as possible.

Staffing shortages make it so hospitals are still struggling with the case load although area hospitals have fewer COVID-19 patients than previous variants dealt them. Right now, less than 30 are hospitalized for the virus. When delta peaked last fall, hospitals saw a peak of 142 people because of the virus.

"Part of that is because people have immunity because they got infected before, people have higher vaccine rates and now we have better treatments," Luedke said.

This wave seems to have a lesser impact than previous ones, but there's still risk posed in getting the virus. Many questions remain about long COVID, but experts estimate that about 30% of people who get hospitalized continue to struggle with long COVID. Those who get the virus but are not hospitalized have a lower, but still significant, chance of dealing with long COVID. The odds for this group are in the 10 percent to 20 percent range, Luedtke said.

Reporter Connor Radnovich covers the Oregon Legislature and state government. Contact him at cradnovich@statesmanjournal.com or 503-508-6131, or follow him on Twitter at @CDRadnovich.

Contact reporter Tatiana Parafiniuk-Talesnick at Tatiana@registerguard.com or 541-521-7512, and follow her on Twitter @TatianaSophiaPT.

This article originally appeared on Salem Statesman Journal: Omicron BA.2 coronavirus variant less severe in Oregon than Delta, BA.1