Latest COVID-19 variant less severe for Oregonians than prior variants

Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations have increased steadily in Oregon since the end of April as the omicron BA.2 subvariant wave swept the state, but state health officers say the severity of cases is much lower than during previous variants — and that is borne out in hospitalization data.

During the delta variant wave, which peaked in late summer 2021, daily cases peaked at about 2,600 with nearly 1,200 peak hospitalizations. Of those, more than 300 patients were in the ICU and 200 required ventilators. During January's omicron BA.1 variant wave, daily cases peaked at more than 9,600 and daily hospitalizations at more than 1,100. Of those, about 200 patients required ICU care and about 100 needed ventilators.

However, on Friday, during this current omicron BA.2 wave, hospitalizations were at about 300 with about 30 patients in the ICU and five on ventilators.

"It's really notable ... unlike every other past surge, we are not seeing significant increases in people in the ICU and especially people on ventilators," Oregon Health Authority Director Pat Allen told lawmakers during a legislative committee hearing Friday. "We are now really at that place where numbers of cases have really diverged from serious illness in the community, and that's really great news."

Allen said modeling from Oregon Health and Science University indicates as many as half of current COVID-19 hospitalizations are "incidental" cases, i.e. an individual comes to the hospital for a non-coronavirus reason, but tests positive for the disease while there.

"That's not free, because those patients still need to be dealt with in an advanced infection control environment, so there is a higher rate of consumption of PPE and all those kinds of things, but it's not as indicative of serious illness," Allen said.

There are several factors health officials attribute to likely having an impact on the lower number of ICU hospitalizations during the current wave, including: more widespread vaccination use; more individuals having been exposed to COVID-19 during a previous wave; and the BA.2 variant possibly being a less-dangerous version of COVID-19.

Officials said other variants have popped up around the nation and the world, but it's still too early to know how they might impact case counts, hospitalizations or deaths in Oregon.

Case numbers difficult to track

While hospitalization numbers are consistently accurate, overall case numbers have been more difficult to track during the current wave.

Actual coronavirus case numbers could be four to 10 times higher than what is being reflected in state data, largely due to the prevalence of at-home tests, the results of which are mostly not being reported publicly, Allen said.

"We know that we're not capturing most cases by a large degree," Allen said. "What does remain accurate is these numbers can be used to tell what direction we're going."

Allen said the rate of newly reported cases has slowed over the past two weeks, and while he stopped short of declaring that cases had reached a peak (in part because the Memorial Day weekend's impact on tests conducted and reported), he suggested the state could be moving toward a different phase of the wave.

New forecasting from OHSU released Friday shows COVID-19 hospitalizations should peak around the end of next week at approximately 329 active cases.

Forecaster Peter Graven, lead data scientist at OHSU's Business Intelligence unit, said deaths are also much lower during the BA.2 wave compared to previous waves.

"When I'm thinking about positive news, that's what I'm looking at," Graven said. "Our number of deaths, and certainly deaths-per-symptom ... is really low."

Local impact at Salem Health

Statewide coronavirus trends are also being reflected locally in the Salem area and at Salem Health, with hospitalizations increasing, though neither at the same level as during omicron BA.1 or delta waves, nor with as much need for ICU treatment.

"In terms of the patients themselves, they certainly aren't as sick as in prior variants," said Sarah Horn, chief nursing operations officer at Salem Health.

Horn said the hospital got to as few as two total coronavirus cases in the hospital in April, but case counts have increased since then. There have been between 24 and 41 patients with coronavirus, Horn said, with the peak occurring last week.

By comparison, the hospital had a one-day peak during the previous omicron BA.1 wave in January of 122 patients.

However, Horn noted that while the lower number of coronavirus patients is positive, having two dozen to three dozen additional patients is essentially a workload enough for one or two nursing units. This continues to put pressure on hospital staffing and capacity.

As of Thursday, Salem Health was at 113% occupancy, with patients needing to share private rooms and a lack of space in the emergency department. However, the hospital says it still has the capacity to treat patients who have emergencies and patients should not delay scheduled care.

Dr. Jasmin Chaudhary, medical director of Infection Prevention and Antibiotic Stewardship at Salem Health, said cases and hospitalization increases in Salem area similar to what Portland and other metro areas in the state are experiencing.

"We're not seeing the huge numbers that we saw in January, and we're not seeing the level of severity that we saw with delta," Chaudhary said. "I think we're headed in the right direction."

Reporter Connor Radnovich covers the Oregon Legislature and state government. Contact him at cradnovich@statesmanjournal.com or 503-508-6131, or follow him on Twitter at @CDRadnovich.

This article originally appeared on Salem Statesman Journal: Omicron BA.2 coronavirus variant less severe in Oregon than Delta, BA.1