Latest jobs number no mistake — and Florida is benefiting

America’s economic recovery is real — and it’s already happening in Florida despite ongoing concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic, economists say.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell unexpectedly in May to 13.3% — still on par with what the nation witnessed during the Great Depression — as states loosened their coronavirus lockdowns and businesses began recalling workers faster than economists had predicted.

The government said Friday that the economy added 2.5 million jobs last month, driving unemployment down from 14.7 percent in April.

Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting, said Friday that the national jobs numbers reflect the economy — and state — being “plugged back in.”

“It reflects the extreme impacts that these public health measures have had on the economy,” he said. “You pull the plug on large sectors of economy and shut them down instantaneously, and in the process hurled millions into unemployment. Now seeing some states like Florida are starting to plug in some of those cords, and, surprise surprise, jobs numbers reflect that.”

He points to the gains seen in U.S. leisure and hospitality jobs, which climbed 1.24 million in May; and in retail, which saw 368,000 jobs come back. Florida had a pre-COVID peak of 1.3 million leisure and hospitality workers in February, while Miami-Dade had about 340,000.

The U.S. had 152.5 million total jobs prior to the pandemic, and now has 133 million.

“Those most impacted by the shutdown are seeing the most sweeping gains as jobs reopen,” Snaith said.

Last month, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Phase 1 of the state’s reopening plan, which included restaurants being allowed to operate at 50 percent capacity. Among companies that announced they’d be rehiring last month was Flanigan’s Seafood Bar and Grill.

“We’ve rehired virtually all of our employees… or at least asked them to come back,” said CEO Jimmy Flanigan in an email. “We are beyond that now… We are now running help wanted ads.”

He added that some employees are choosing to continue to collect jobless benefits rather than come back.

“Some are doing pretty well sticking with unemployment,” he said. “That makes it a little tougher.”

Also coming back online is the Cheesecake Factory, which said one-quarter of its nearly 300 restaurants have reopened, though with limited capacity. Sales are at nearly 75 percent of the levels reached a year ago, the company said.

Meanwhile, airlines are returning to the skies. South Florida-based Spirit Airlines said it was tripling routes thanks to returning demand, while American Airlines announced this week it would fly 55 percent of its U.S. routes in July, up from just 20 percent in May.

The economic crisis continues to have a disproportionate impact on workers of color. While the unemployment rate for white Americans was 12.4 percent in May, it was 17.6 percent for Hispanics and 16.8 percent for Blacks.

Even with the surprising gain in May, it may take months for all those who lost work in April and March to find jobs. Some economists forecast the rate could remain in double digits through the November elections and into next year.

The street protests over George Floyd’s killing that led to vandalism and looting in dozens of cities did not affect Friday’s figures, which were compiled in the middle of May. But business closings related to the unrest could show up in the June report.

Friday’s report made it clear the government continues to struggle with how it classifies millions of workers on temporary layoff. The Labor Department admitted that government household survey-takers mistakenly counted about 4.9 million temporarily laid-off people as employed.

The government doesn’t correct its survey results for fear of the appearance of political manipulation.

Had the mistake been corrected, the unemployment rate would have risen to 16.1 percent in May. But the corrected April figure would have been more than than 19 percent, rather than 14.7 percent.

Florida’s employment situation also continues to defy easy analysis. The state is still seeing thousands of new jobless claims filed each week, and now counts nearly 2 million individuals who have applied for unemployment since March 15.

But it has also seen wild swings in so-called continuing claims, or among those who remain on unemployment after initially claiming it. For the week ended May 23, the most recent week for which data is available, this number climbed by 76,980 to 606,364. But the week before, the figure fell by 1.6 million to 529,384.

The U.S. Department of Labor referred questions to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity which did not respond to request for comment.

Not all economists are in agreement about the effect of the Paycheck Protection Program, which was designed to provide financial assistance to keep employees on the payroll of small businesses.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton LLP, said it has so far only yielded about 2 payrolls per loan — one reason why it is now being revised by Congress to provide more flexibility for business owners.

Still, said Abbey Omodunbi, economist at PNC Financial Services Group, things would have been worse in the program’s absence.

“PPP seems like it’s working,” he said. “As well as fiscal stimulus, which means people have more money to spend, and that means more businesses can stay open and keep hiring.”