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Latest NCAA Tournament projections for Kentucky basketball after lopsided loss to Arkansas

LEXINGTON, Ky. — Kentucky wasted an opportunity to improve its NCAA Tournament hopes Tuesday, falling to SEC rival (and fellow bubble team) Arkansas, 88-73, at Rupp Arena.

The Wildcats, who had won six straight conference games prior to Tuesday's loss, need every victory they can get. And a win over the Razorbacks would have been crucial: Tuesday was a Quad 1 matchup, the games that figure most prominently when the selection committee begins seeding the bracket come March. UK now is 1-7 in Quad 1 contests this season, with that lone victory on the road at then-No. 5 Tennessee last month.

In nearly every bracket projection, the Wildcats have been predicted to be among the last squads into the 68-team field. After losing to the Razorbacks, the Wildcats' NET rating tumbled to 41. (They were 32nd entering Tuesday.)

After Tuesday's slate of games, BracketWAG.com has Kentucky as a No. 11 seed, with a juicy First Four matchup —against Memphis. John Calipari left Memphis for Kentucky in 2009 and has not faced the Tigers during his time leading the Wildcats. (The two programs have played just once, with Calipari beating his future employer, 80-63, in a third-place game at the Maui Invitational in November 2006.) As of Thursday, Bracket Matrix projects the Wildcats' average seed as 10.47, appearing in 101 of the 105 brackets.

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Here's a look at Kentucky's NCAA projections from a variety of national outlets:

Kentucky’s Cason Wallace makes the basket and gets fouled against Arkansas’ Makhel Mitchell.Feb. 7, 2023
Kentucky’s Cason Wallace makes the basket and gets fouled against Arkansas’ Makhel Mitchell.Feb. 7, 2023

Where ESPN projects Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his latest update Wednesday afternoon. He has the Wildcats among the last four teams in the field, meaning they would head to Dayton, Ohio, for a First Four game. Kentucky isn't the only blue blood Lunardi projects will be in Dayton; North Carolina is in the same boat right now.

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CBS Sports Kentucky bracketology for NCAA Tournament

CBS Sports writer Jerry Palm released his new bracket Tuesday morning. At that point, he slotted Kentucky as a 10-seed, heading to Denver to face seventh-seeded Illinois. Following UK's home loss to Arkansas Palm wrote this in a "Bracketology Bubble Watch" story: "Not beating Kansas at home is a lost opportunity for a splashy win. Not beating Arkansas is simply not taking care of business."

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UK basketball bracketology from The Athletic

Senior college basketball writer Eamon Brennan highlighted the Wildcats as a team with "Work to do" heading into March in his newest "Bubble Watch" article, published prior to Tuesday's Kentucky-Arkansas game.

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Kentucky’s CJ Fredrick is fouled by Arkansas’ Anthony BlackFeb. 7, 2023
Kentucky’s CJ Fredrick is fouled by Arkansas’ Anthony BlackFeb. 7, 2023

What's next for Kentucky

UK has one more game this week: Saturday at Georgia. Beating the Bulldogs, who are 132nd in the NET rankings, will do little to boost the Wildcats' NCAA Tournament chances. A loss, however, would be a devastating blow. Georgia is 14-10 overall, but just 4-7 in SEC play. It's lost three consecutive games, including the most recent: a 78-74 defeat to Ole Miss, at home, on Tuesday. The Rebels were just 1-9 in the league entering the game.

Kentucky's next chance at a Quad 1 triumph is next week, when it hits the road to face Mississippi State at 8:30 p.m. in Starkville, Mississippi.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Latest NCAA Tournament projections for Kentucky basketball after loss