What the latest polling numbers tell us about the North Carolina race for governor

There are still a lot of unknowns about how the race for North Carolina governor will shape up in the 2024 general elections, but multiple polls show which candidates voters favor in the primary elections.

Here’s what recent polls among Democrats and Republicans tells us about voters and candidates, and what it means.

GOP primary poll

The largest group of Republican primary voters in a recent East Carolina University poll — almost half — still haven’t decided who they want to win.

The poll was conducted Nov. 29-Dec. 1, before the December candidate filing period. In second place after undecided is Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson with 34%, followed by lawyer and businessman Bill Graham with 8%, State Treasurer Dale Folwell with 7%, and 3% for former state Sen. Andy Wells, who has since left the race.

ECU said its sample of likely Republican primary voters had a “credibility interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error” of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.

Robinson is a MAGA Republican who went to former President Donald Trump’s home at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, this month for an event. He easily won his primary for lieutenant governor in 2020 among a large field of candidates, and appears to be popular with the party base.

Western Carolina University politics professor Chris Cooper said the ECU poll simply shows that people know who Robinson is more than they know who the other Republican gubernatorial candidates are in the primary.

The Republican presidential primary is “crowded and competitive” compared to the Democratic primary, and that could drive primary voters to the polls, he said.

Democratic primary poll

A new December poll from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling has Democrat Josh Stein in the lead for the Democratic primary. The two-term attorney general has been in the race since January and was solo for awhile, until retired N.C. Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan entered the race in September. During December candidate filing, three more Democrats added their names to the ballot: Chrelle Booker, Marcus Williams and Gary Foxx.

Public Policy Polling reports that Stein has more than half of Democratic voters among the candidates, with 56%. Morgan trails with 5%, followed by Williams with 4%, Booker with 3% and Foxx with 1%.

Another 32% were not sure. PPP said the margin of error for the Dec. 15 and 16 survey of 556 likely Democratic voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

The general election

A potential Robinson-Stein matchup polled by ECU has Robinson leading with 44% of votes to Stein’s 40%, and 16% undecided.

The director of the ECU Center for Survey Research said its poll shows uncertainty in the governor’s race.

“While Mark Robinson is certainly the favorite to be the Republican candidate, the fact that so many Republican primary voters are still undecided suggests that the nomination battle is not yet over,” ECU’s Peter Francia said in a statement when the poll was released. “And, no matter who the Republican (presidential) is, the general election for governor should be an extremely competitive election.”

Role of endorsements

The Public Policy Polling poll also asked if an endorsement from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who has an 89% approval rating in the same poll, carries weight with Democratic primary voters. And 64% of them said it would. Cooper, who is beginning the final year of his two terms, has endorsed Stein. The governor told The N&O this week that he doesn’t anticipate getting involved in any other primaries in this election, aside from Stein’s.

Robinson has received two endorsements lately from state party leaders.

Robinson, whose role as lieutenant governor means he is president of the Senate, has been endorsed by Senate leader Phil Berger and House Speaker Tim Moore, the Republican top duo who have controlled the General Assembly together for more than a decade. Moore is leaving at the end of his term and is running for Congress. He will continue to serve as speaker throughout the 2024 legislative session, he told reporters last week, and retains significant power.

U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis endorsed Graham over Robinson, The National Review reported.

Robinson is expected to get Trump’s endorsement, though the former president stopped short of using that word when he complimented Robinson at the Florida event.

What a national poll shows

Reuters/Ipsos released a new national poll in December about the presidential race. Assuming Trump is the nominee against incumbent President Joe Biden, polling shows them in a close race. North Carolina, as a state, has a history of close presidential races, too.

Voters in this state chose President Barack Obama as well as Trump in different elections.

Cooper, the politics professor, said that polls 11 months before the general election can “give you some sense of the mood” of voters. They “are important, and can be meaningful, but they’re not predictive at this point,” because most people aside from “hardcore partisan” voters aren’t paying attention.

“Every time you get closer to the election it’s going to be more predictive, but I think what these polls can do ... is it helps winnow the field,” he said.

So who do polls serve?

They can be a signal to candidates, legislators and policymakers, Cooper said. They can also show if a candidate is a fringe one or a contender. For Robinson, polls showing him in the lead prove “he’s a contender. Take him seriously, because he might win this election. I think that’s really important,” he said.

The North Carolina primary election is March 5.