Latest school massacre generates a lot of political heat. But here’s why some feel it’s still not enough to bring change.

The Uvalde, Texas, elementary school massacre produced anguished cries of anger along with calls for action 1,500 miles away in South Florida — and a consensus that the deaths of 19 children and two teachers won’t result in new laws and won’t affect this year’s midterm elections.

“Unfortunately, I don’t think so,” said Chris Smith, of Fort Lauderdale, a former state legislator who served as Democratic Party leader in both the Florida Senate and Florida House of Representatives.

“Soon after, there’s outrage,” Smith said. “Everyone will say it now.” But he predicts it won’t last — and certainly not until Election Day in six months.

“We’re used to mass shootings, but we’re not used to $6-a-gallon gas. This shooting is horrific. And we’re going to think about it for the next four or five days until we go fill up again,” Smith said.

Bob Sutton’s views on gun violence are diametrically opposed to Smith’s. But they agree on one thing: The massacre won’t alter the outcome of the 2022 elections.

Sutton, a former chairman of the Broward Republican Party, is now chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus of Broward, a group that holds some of its gatherings at a gun range. At one such gathering this month, the group said on Facebook, one of the activities was signing petitions to get candidates on the ballot for this year’s elections.

“I think the ideology of both parties, pro and anti, will remain the same. It’s difficult to change peoples’ minds,” Sutton said. ”The weapon is an inanimate object. And this shows that evil does walk among us. You can’t restrict evil. An inanimate object is not good or evil. It’s the person.”

Sutton said members of the Republican Liberty Caucus believe that the Second Amendment protects people’s First Amendment rights to free speech and “what happened in Ukraine shows us why we need to maintain our Second Amendment.”

Jared Moskowitz, a Broward County commissioner running for a Democratic nomination for Congress, was a state representative from northwest Broward at the time of the Feb. 14, 2018, Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School massacre.

Moskowitz, who was instrumental in passing a Florida law in response to the Stoneman Douglas shooting, said there are many reasons why so often nothing happens — and why voters don’t react at the ballot box.

“We have a short memory in this country and we have a lot of distractions between TV and social media and everyday lives. And, listen, we have other real problems in this country. We have a war in Ukraine, inflation, gas prices, food prices, rent is unaffordable,” he said.

If the pattern repeats, Moskowitz said, one thing is certain: More people will be killed in mass shootings, including children at their schools.

Calls for action

Democratic candidates in Florida and elsewhere said the carnage in Texas illustrates once again why restrictions on guns — which they always describe as “common sense” measures to improve “gun safety” are vital.

And they resolve to take action — just as they do after every mass shooting — hoping voters will respond.

Congresswoman Val Demings, a former Orlando police chief who is running against U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., said at a Miami rally Monday night that she was “sick and tired of hearing about innocent people being gunned down in innocent places. ... It’s time for the United States Senate to get off their knees and do something about our children being gunned down.”

Rubio’s campaign spokeswoman didn’t respond to a request for comment about the electoral impact of the issue. Writing on Twitter, he said Congress should “act on proposals that can pass & actually make a difference.” Specifically, he called for enactment of a law that would set up a clearinghouse for school safety practices.

He later said expanded background checks for gun buyers would not solve the problem.

Zelden said the issue “gives Demings another line of attack to motivate voters. What she needs is to get all the Democratic voters to show up. Anything that can motivate base voters to take time and come and vote is advantageous. Will it be enough motivation to enough voters to make a difference in the outcome? Right now I don’t think that’s likely.”

Congressman Charlie Crist, a candidate for the Democratic nomination for governor, said on Twitter the way to “stop the epidemic of gun violence in our state” is to “end the sales of assault weapons, enforce gun laws, support survivors and families [and] strengthen community safety, elements of his “Safer Florida For All Plan.”

Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, another Democratic candidate for governor, said in a statement she feels “loss, despair, and frustration. Until we can work together to smother the wildfire of gun violence, hope will remain elusive.”

Doesn’t move votes

The Texas massacre — like many that have come before in schools, houses of worship and retail stores — won’t change what voters do in November, said Charles Zelden, a professor of history and legal studies who specializes in politics and voting at Nova Southeastern University.

“People’s stance on guns is already baked into voting,” Zelden said. “It might motivate some marginal voters to show up and vote, but it can happen on both sides of the equation.”

Offsetting anyone who is concerned enough to vote based on a desire for more restrictions on guns, there’s a similar reaction from people who will vote differently based on a fear their guns will be taken away, Zelden said.

“So it’ll probably end up being a wash in terms of its electoral impact,” he said.

Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University and a research fellow at the university’s Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative, said it will make a difference to “some voters. And it probably will elevate the focus on issues related to gun violence and school safety. History tells us that those tend not to” last long.

“It could make a difference, but November is a long way off,” Wagner said.

At first blush, it doesn’t seem to compute. Public opinion polling has consistently shown that certain limitations, such as expanded background checks, have broad support from voters.

But, Wagner said, “those don’t tend to be motivating issues for voters when compared to things like the economy or inflation or certain social issues.”

On the other side, Wagner said, “for the people who favor Second Amendment rights, that tends to be a very singular issue for them.”

In other words, fending off restrictions is often a powerful motivating force for supporters of gun rights, but isn’t as powerful a single issue for people who want restrictions imposed on guns.

“Until the political leaders believe that people are going to vote on this issue, then I don’t think a lot of things are going to change,” Wager said.

Public polls in Florida and nationally have consistently shown most people want their elected officials to take action to reduce the access to weapons, especially to people who might be dangerous. Policies that enjoy public support include stronger background checks, curbs on assault weapons, allowing courts to order seizure of weapons from people who may be dangerous, and banning high-capacity-ammunition magazines.

Support for gun restrictions is highest in the immediate aftermath of mass shootings, when horrific results dominate the news and are fresh in people’s minds. Then it trails off.

Opinions vary — sometimes dramatically — based on gender, race and political affiliation. Women generally are more supportive of stronger gun laws than men. Black voters are generally more supportive than white voters. And Democrats are far more supportive than Republicans.

New laws

Whenever there’s a tragedy, Democratic elected officials generally call for restrictions, such as expanding background checks for gun buyers. And most Republicans resist change. That’s why Congress, which is closely divided, isn’t able to agree on action, even if it is popular with voters.

A big, notable exception to that pattern was in Florida in the aftermath of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School massacre, in which 17 people were killed and 17 wounded on Feb. 14, 2018.

The Republican-controlled Legislature passed and then-Gov. Rick Scott, now the state’s junior Republican senator, signed the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Public Safety Act, which raised the age to purchase a rifle from 18 to 21 and created a statewide waiting period for long-gun sales.

The measure also included provisions to enhance school safety and improve mental health services for students.

Moskowitz said the so-called “red flag” provision — an “extreme risk protection order” making it easier for law enforcement to seize the firearms of people deemed dangerous to themselves or others — has been used 5,000 times in Florida. That may have prevented more mass shootings, he said.

Moskowitz, a Stoneman Douglas graduate, was widely credited as a major reason why the law was passed. (His work on the legislation earned him an F-minus rating from the National Rifle Association — a grade Moskowitz has said meant he was doing the right thing.)

“I was not going to allow my Republican colleagues to go into their partisan corner and do nothing,” Moskowitz said. “And it’s why I used every lever, every relationship, every argument, everything I could to make them understand that what happened at Douglas can’t be allowed to happen again.”

He said broader action can happen on a national level, but only if there is some bipartisan interest in change.

“Until we talk to each other as parents and not as political enemies, no one is going to feel comfortable moving out of their corner. I didn’t talk to my Republican colleagues as my enemy. I talked to them as parents. They send their kids to school, and if it could happen in my neighborhood, it could happen in their neighborhood.”

Wagner said the massacre was “very visceral to Florida, and there was a belief of the political class of both parties that the failure to do something would have political consequences.” Political leaders in Washington, D.C., don’t see the same political peril to inaction, he said.

One other significant factor, Wagner cited: “The Florida tragedy happened while the Legislature was in session, which gave a lot of pressure to do something in the moment.”

Still there were limits, even in the aftermath of Stoneman Douglas.

At the time, Smith was a member of the state Constitution Revision Commission, which meets every 20 years to put proposed amendments to the state Constitution on the ballot. In the weeks after the massacre, Smith tried to advance a proposal that would have asked Florida voters if they wanted to add a ban on the sale or transfer of assault weapons to the state Constitution.

But other commissioners, almost all of whom were appointed by Republican elected officials, blocked Smith’s move to get the question in front of voters. “This was right after Stoneman Douglas,” Smith said.

Lingering effects

Moskowitz, who flew home from Tallahassee on the day of the massacre, was at the hotel when authorities began to pull parents away to tell them their missing children had been killed. “I didn’t hear crying. I heard screaming. It haunts me,” he said. “There are times throughout the day that I cry about what happened at Douglas.”

The images at the school remain haunting: Bullet holes in walls, abandoned backpacks, scattered homework assignments — and blood.

“I’m heartbroken for these parents. I’ve seen first-hand what it looks like to have to bury your child. I went to countless funerals after the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting. I was passing funerals to go to other funerals.

“All I could think of then is what kind of box do you put your kid in. These are 7- and 8-year-olds. What do you dress a 7- and 8-year-old in when you put your baby in the ground? What do you do with all their stuff when you come back to the house with the empty bedroom?”

“I don’t know how you console these parents and move forward, and quite frankly, I don’t know how you explain to them what happened. In America, we should be able to guarantee to parents when you drop your kid off at school, you get to pick them up alive,” Moskowitz said.

On Wednesday morning, Moskowitz took his children, ages 8 and 5, and waited for them to get home at the end of the day.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com or on Twitter @browardpolitics