Leeds vs Derby: Can Marcelo Bielsa's injury-hit side limp closer to the Premier League?

As The Independent knows well, Marcelo Bielsa does not think much of the theory that his teams ‘burn out’ as the season progresses. Even though he was not asked a question specifically on that subject before this semi-final second leg against Derby County, into which Leeds United take a 1-0 lead, he was still deconstructing and dismissing it.

“You've heard that my teams usually arrive at this point of the season tired from a physical and mental point of view,” he told journalists in his pre-match press conference at Thorp Arch earlier this week. “The game against Derby [on Saturday] was the game where we ran most in the whole season.” And yet despite all that running, if Leeds are to reach the final at Wembley, it may be with a limp.

Bielsa has seldom had a clean bill of health since arriving at Elland Road. Injuries have undermined this promotion bid from the start and could yet undo it. Tonight, Pontus Jansson is doubt with an ankle issue. Ruptured knee ligaments put paid to Barry Douglas’s season some time ago. Adam Forshaw, Tyler Roberts, Ezgjan Alioski are all unavailable for this second leg and unlikely to appear in any playoff final.

Kemar Roofe, scorer of the only goal at the iPro on Saturday, may be the greatest loss. His calf injury - announced to some surprise on Monday - is not a serious problem but it will sideline him for Wednesday. Patrick Bamford returns from a two-match suspension just in time to replace Roofe and fittingly so. Bielsa has spent two-thirds of the season without one striker or the other, if not both.

A small, depleted first-team squad must now be bolstered by youngsters. Forshaw, for example, will be replaced by the teenage Jamie Shackleton - a spirited, tenacious midfielder, who added much to Leeds’ game on Saturday. He has made plenty of appearances as a substitute this past year but only three league starts, all of them as a right-back. Just last week, he was playing with the Under-23s in the Professional Development League.

And though only 19 years-old, Shackleton will be a senior when compared with those who remain on the bench. Three fellow teenagers - Pascal Struijk, Mateusz Bogusz and Robbie Gotts - are all yet to make senior appearances but will be part of the match-day squad. The exciting Jack Clarke has contributed enough to be named Leeds’ Young Player of the Year and could have an impact but is just 18. There is talent but little experience.

Leeds’s saving grace is that they are playing Derby. Saturday was the third meeting between the two clubs this season and the third which resulted in Frank Lampard’s side being dominated and defeated by Bielsa’s. Derby, at home, failed to register a single shot on target. They managed only one at Elland Road in January. Their goal in a 4-1 defeat at the iPro in August was from a direct free-kick.

Leeds v Derby

Kick-off: 7.45pm, Wednesday 15 May

TV channel: Sky Sports Football/Main Event

Turning this semi-final around is far from an impossible task. But it will require Lampard - who has injury concerns of his own - to find a way through an opponent that has bested him at every opportunity thus far. And though it is harder to quantify than what has happened out on the pitch, there is also effect of Spygate. Has that incident and its long, protracted fallout given Derby a complex about Bielsa’s Leeds that cannot be easily shaken, nor stirred?

Perhaps Lampard’s best hope is that the theory runs true: that, at this decisive point of the season, with injured team-mates piling up behind them, Bielsa’s players collapse under a coach whose philosophy is said to demand the impossible. It was, after all, around this time of year when Ander Herrera, a player in Bielsa’s Athletic Club side, felt as if he could no longer run. “Our legs said stop,” he later recalled. “We were physically f***ed.”

But this is still a Leeds side which took approximately 30 per cent of its 83 points from losing positions. No team in the Championship scored more than the eight goals Leeds managed after the 90-minute mark. And though preventable muscle injuries mount, there were few signs of fatigue at the iPro on Saturday, when a composed and professional display helped recover from three defeats in four.

Bielsa is now one game away from taking a small, unremarkable and largely unchanged squad of players from mid-table mediocrity to the playoff final. He will then be one further game away from promotion and successfully negotiating one of world football’s most competitive and physically-demanding divisions while staying true to his methods. It could all still crash and burn, or they may only crawl over the finish line. But of all the playoff contenders, Leeds look likeliest.