Will legal issues stop Trump from beating Biden? What GOP caucusgoers told our Iowa Poll

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Almost two-thirds of likely Republican caucusgoers say Donald Trump can defeat President Joe Biden despite his ongoing legal challenges — an indicator of Trump’s broad support in Iowa even as he faces court trials, testimony from former allies and felony charges across four criminal cases.

A new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll asked likely Republican caucusgoers for their view on the election effects of Trump’s court battles. He faces charges related to the Jan. 6 attack, possible election interference in Georgia, classified documents in Florida and hush money payments in New York.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 65%, say Trump “can win an election against Joe Biden, regardless of his legal challenges.” Another 32% say his legal challenges “will make it nearly impossible for him to win an election against Joe Biden.”

Four percent of respondents say they aren’t sure. The poll of 404 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 22-26 by Selzer and Co. and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Trump — who remains the front-runner as the first-choice pick for 43% of likely Republican caucusgoers — has retained party support in the face of his legal challenges even as a majority say they are open to, or actively seeking, a new leader.

Asked about the role of the former president in the future of the Republican Party, 28% of likely GOP caucusgoers say Trump “was a good president, but it is time to consider other leaders”; and 32% say the party “needs a new leader with better personal behavior and a different approach.”

But Trump maintains a plurality of support as the face of the GOP, with 39% of likely GOP caucusgoers saying the party “should continue to be led by Donald Trump.” That mark is similar to that of August’s Iowa Poll, where 41% of respondents said he should continue to lead the party.

Pollster J. Ann Selzer said the findings could indicate a prevailing “anti-Biden” sentiment among likely Republican caucusgoers, even for some who aren’t backing Trump as their candidate of choice.

“Anybody could beat Joe Biden potentially, is what they may be saying,” Selzer said. “These data would support the idea that ‘Joe Biden’s just not that tough.’ So, regardless of whether there are legal challenges, Donald Trump can beat him.”

Nearly all of those who name Trump as their first choice in the caucuses believe his legal challenges won’t prevent him from winning the general election, with 94% saying he could win against Biden. Among those who do not name Trump as their first choice, 42% believe he could defeat Biden despite his court challenges.

Among supporters of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, more think Trump can win regardless of what’s happening in the courts (53%) than say it’s nearly impossible to win (40%).

Among supporters of United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, the majority (63%) say it’s nearly impossible for Trump to win given legal challenges, with just 35% saying Trump can win against Biden regardless of legal standing.

In August’s Iowa Poll, almost two-thirds of likely Republican caucusgoers said they didn’t believe Trump committed any serious crimes.

Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of likely Republican caucusgoers who list Trump as their first-choice candidate — 86% — say the GOP should continue to be led by the former president.

A majority of those who back DeSantis and Haley are interested in new party leadership: 64% of DeSantis voters say Trump was a good president but it’s time to consider other leaders, and 59% of Haley voters say the party needs a new leader with better personal behavior and a different approach.

William Glosser, a 61-year-old poll respondent from Indianola, said he didn’t “necessarily always like the way Trump conducted himself,” but the former president’s policy agenda has kept his support ahead of the caucuses.

“I think it could impact negatively for him,” Glosser said of Trump’s ongoing court cases. “But I also believe that under the current administration, we’ve gone so far downhill so fast that a lot of people who might have been influenced negatively about these court cases ... that may not overshadow the direction we’re heading.”

But Samantha Stokes, a 19-year-old poll respondent from Sioux City who is supporting DeSantis, said Trump’s “head is in the wrong space.” She believes the former president’s legal battles will prevent him from winning.

“He’s obviously worried about all of his lawsuits, which is reasonable,” Stokes said. “But he’s spending too much of his time and resources fighting lawsuits rather than campaigning. That’s definitely a problem.”

Stokes said she believes Trump’s established personality and reputation will keep him from winning key groups like young voters and independents.

DeSantis, she said, “is more likable all around for people who are independents or undecided.”

Poll respondent Patti Adrian, 71, of Davenport, is supporting Haley — choosing her over Trump in part because she supports her policies and likes “her demeanor better than Trump’s.”

But she believes either could beat Biden, saying Trump’s legal battles are politically motivated.

“They do anything they can to put him into a bad light, and I think that’s part of it,” Adrian said. “I think they’re afraid of him, that he could possibly win again.”

Galen Bacharier covers politics for the Register. Reach him at gbacharier@registermedia.com or (573) 219-7440, and follow him on Twitter @galenbacharier.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 22-26, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 404 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,028 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 404 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Most Iowa GOP caucusgoers say Trump beats Biden despite legal cases