Let’s get wild, week four: Statistical predictions for Notre Dame at UNC
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The Irish finally got the monkey off their backs and won their first game of the Marcus Freeman era last week and look to start a winning streak. They won’t get an easy opponent as the host Tar Heels can score with the best teams in the country. Notre Dame has gotten better each week and will need to continue that trend in order for them to get their first road victory of the 2022 season. Here are five statistical guesses for the Irish today.
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They hold the Notre Carolina offense under their season averages for points and yards
Sep 3, 2022; Boone, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) during the second half against the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kidd Brewer Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
The Heels have yet to face a defense with a pulse and this will most likely cause them the have more than a few struggles against the Irish. They enter the contest as the fifth-best team in total offense with 547.3 yards-per-game and also the fifth-best scoring offense with 39.3 points-per-game. The Irish on the other hand have allowed 351.7 yards-per-game and 21.3 points-per-game, something has to give. I think it will be the younger UNC offense, led by redshirt-freshman Drake Maye, as the Irish hold them closer the what their defensive averages are.
Chris Tyree gets over 20-touches and over 150-yards
Sep 17, 2022; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Chris Tyree (25) scores a touchdown in front of California Bears safety Daniel Scott (2) in the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
For the first time all season, offensive coordinator Tommy Rees went with a heavy Tyree approach and it payed off. The junior had his best game of the young season, getting 17 rushes for 64-yards and catching 5 passes for 44-yards and a score. He did plenty of heaving lifting in the first half, but wavered a bit in the second. This time Rees evens out his usage between the halves and a much fresher Tyree in the later stages of the game rips off a few big plays.
The Irish finally force a turnover
Sep 3, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Brandon Joseph (16) reacts to the missed field goal during the second quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
It’s a bit mind boggling that through three games this Irish defense has yet to force a turnover. It’s just not normal at all, they should have at least lucked into one but here we are. The Tar Heels have been fairly good with the ball, throwing just one interception and losing three fumbles. No doubt that defensive coordinator Al Golden has been focusing on this during the week. That focus pays off as the Irish take the ball away once through the air and another as they force and recover a fumble.
Drew Pyne post a career-high in passing yards
Sep 17, 2022; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Drew Pyne (10) signals before the snap in the first quarter against the California Bearsat Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
The first-time starter set a career-high in passing yards against Cal, but that number isn’t very high at just 150-yards. Pyne shows some improvement from his “week one” to the second as he continues to get more comfortable at the Irish’s starter. His completion percentage was very good at 73.9% but his long was just 36-yards. Rees knows that the Irish need to push the ball down the field to open up running lanes for Tyree and Audric Estime. Pyne will help as he forces the safeties to back off from the box and respect the passing game as he puts up over 200-yards through the air.
A wide receiver finally goes over 100-yards
Sep 3, 2022; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Lorenzo Styles (4) catches a pass and runs up the sideline ahead of Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Steele Chambers (22) during the first quarter of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports
If Pyne is going to have a big game, someone has to be the benefactor of his performance and my guess is it will be Lorenzo Styles due to teams trying to stop star tight end Michael Mayer. Styles leads the team in receiving-yards but has been a bit inconsistent catching the ball. Many thought that he would break out after his performance in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl, but that has yet to materialize. It does this week as Styles gets multiple touches en route to the biggest game for a receiver this season.
