LGBTQ representation in House could take a hit in midterms

With just hours to go before polls close, the fate of multiple openly LGBTQ House incumbents is up in the air, potentially spelling trouble for the group’s representation in the next Congress.

Openly gay Democratic Reps. Angie Craig (Minn.), Chris Pappas (N.H.) and Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.) are each facing tight races in Tuesday’s midterm elections, the outcome of which will determine whether LGBTQ representation in the House continues to trend upward or declines for the first time since 2018.

All three races are considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, and while the rematch between Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.), the first LGBTQ Native American elected to Congress, and Republican Amanda Adkins leans in Davids’s favor, the race is considered competitive.

“For the first time ever, LGBTQ+ people this year are on the ballot in every state across the country, and we’ll see an openly lesbian woman elected as governor for the first time,” Joni Madison, interim president of the Human Rights Campaign, said in a Monday statement, referring to governor’s races in Massachusetts and Oregon.

“This year, LGBTQ+ people will make up a bigger proportion of the American electorate than ever before, turning out to vote in support of pro-equality, pro-democracy, and pro-choice candidates,” Madison added.

A record-breaking 11 openly LGBTQ legislators currently hold seats in Congress, nine of them in the House.

Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), the first openly LGBTQ person elected to the Senate, and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), the upper chamber’s first bisexual member, do not face reelection for another two years.

The House seats held by openly LGBTQ Democratic Reps. David Cicilline (R.I.), Mark Pocan (Wis.), Mark Takano (Calif.) and Ritchie Torres (N.Y.) are all considered safe, while Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), one of the first openly gay Black men elected to Congress, lost an August primary to Levi Strauss heir Dan Goldman.

In the event that all four at-risk incumbents win their races, LGBTQ representation in the House would tick up to at least 11, with Democrats Becca Balint of Vermont and Robert Garcia of California considered shoo-ins in their races, and two openly gay candidates — Democrat Robert Zimmerman and Republican George Santos — vying for an open seat in New York’s 3rd Congressional District.

That number could climb even higher, with the race for Illinois’ 17th between Democrat Eric Sorensen, a gay man, and Republican Esther Joy King considered a toss-up.

Will Rollins, a Democrat running to represent California’s 41st District, and Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who is fighting for an open seat in Oregon’s 5th, are locked in races that lean Republican but are still considered competitive.

Democrats Jasmine Beach-Ferrara of North Carolina and Heather Mizeur of Maryland, both openly gay women, are not projected to win their House races.

A hit to the relatively small group could have long-term effects on federal legislation related to LGBTQ issues and identities.

More than 30 House Republicans have already signed on to a bill to prohibit federal dollars from going toward programs or events for children that contain “sexually-oriented material,” which the measure defines as depictions of sexual acts, human anatomy or “any topic involving gender identity, gender dysphoria, transgenderism, sexual orientation, or related subjects.”

In August, far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) introduced legislation to make it a felony — punishable by up to 25 years in prison — to provide gender-affirming health care to a minor. The bill, titled the “Protect Children’s Innocence Act,” has the backing of 49 House Republicans.

And House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has pledged to bring up a bill that prohibits transgender women and girls from competing on female sports teams if Republicans win the majority.

Any loss of LGBTQ representation in Congress increases the likelihood that these measures move forward, Albert Fujii, press secretary of the LGBTQ Victory Fund, which works to elect LGBTQ candidates to public office, told The Hill.

“By moving these bills forward — even just in committee — it’s setting the groundwork for them to be reintroduced and potentially passed in either the next Congress or even farther down the road in 2024,” Fuiji said.

So far this year, LGBTQ members have punched above their weight to pass measures such as the Equality Act and the Respect for Marriage Act, Fuiji said.

The measure was handled with fresh urgency after the Supreme Court in June overturned Roe v. Wade and with it the federal right to an abortion, with Justice Clarence Thomas indicating that gay marriage could also face the chopping block.

Despite more than 7 percent of the U.S. population identifying as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender, just 2.1 percent of the current Congress is openly LGBTQ, according to Victory Fund data released earlier this year.

In Congress’s 232-year history, only 17 openly LGBTQ people have been elected to the House and just two to the Senate.

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