What should the Liberals consider when it comes to an election call?

OTTAWA — Spring, summer or fall? The question comes up a lot in Ottawa these days as Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government readies its 2021 Budget.

Is it also preparing for an election? Political watchers are keen to know.

Pollster and podcaster David Herle is guest author of the April 7 edition of Politico’s Corridors newsletter. He suggests summer might extend a winning opportunity to the Liberal government. Not everyone agrees, of course.

What should the government consider when it comes to an election call? Herle, who has advised many Liberal campaigns, asked around. Here is some of what he heard:

Michele Cadario, former campaign director of the Liberal Party of Canada:

The sweet spot to have an election is after vaccinations are well under way and it is clear the promise of all Canadians being fully vaccinated before the end of summer will be met, but before the enormity of the long-term disruption and job dislocation the pandemic will have on our economy is fully understood.

Is there a window where we experience our own century’s Roaring 20s — vaccinated Canadians feel free again and optimistic because Covid is behind us and life can get back to normal?

The “when” is somewhat easier to answer than the “why” and “how.”

Can the upcoming federal budget lay out the foundation for a long-term path for recovery that generates enough debate with the opposition that the government can justify the need to go to Canadians for a mandate for their vision?

Are the differences in approach stark enough or dramatic enough that the government could condition the public to agree that an election is necessary regardless of whether the opposition unite to topple them or not?

Final consideration would be if not this fall, then when? Is there a better argument that can be made for another time. If not, then all efforts should be directed to creating the policy chasm needed to show cause for an election after only 24 months.

Kory Teneyeke, served as senior adviser to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. He managed the Ontario PC Party campaign and is a partner at Rubicon Strategy:

Election timing will be driven by the pandemic. Case levels and vaccine availability will be more important than polling numbers in the short term. Nobody wants another Newfoundland election debacle.

Tim Murphy, served as chief of staff to former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin:

Can we safely hold the election? If we get the framing right can we win a majority?

Will we have enough vaccines in the country for a first shot for everyone with second shots on their way? If the opposition won’t defeat me in the House is there any concern that asking for dissolution and an election will (a) be denied by the governor general (given we don’t have one yet); and (b) create insurmountable problems with the electorate? Are we ready to go and do we have the money?

Andrew Bevan, served as chief of staff to former Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne:

Every responsible national government wants to meet their responsibility to do what's right for the country while also putting themselves in the best position to win a mandate from the people that allows them to continue to implement what they believe Canada needs.

It is crucial that these two disconnected objectives are aligned, not in conflict.

Making a coherent and cogent argument for what is required now, and in the medium to long-term, to get through the pandemic and onto a plan for social recovery are essential to being in a viable position for an election.

If all of that can be brought together sensibly and comprehensively, then presumably Canadians would be willing to go to the polls to cast their ballot on competing visions for a post-pandemic future.

Elly Alboim, Earnscliffe principal, former CBC parliamentary bureau chief, former senior adviser to Martin, Wynne and countless cabinet ministers:

From a civics perspective (and the more important perspective from my view), a decision to provoke an election (likely the only way it can happen at this point) should be calibrated against the need for a fully focused government in the midst of the pandemic.

People have the right to know their government is putting national management of the pandemic above its own political considerations because no matter how engaged the governmental apparatus is on pandemic management, an election will distract senior players in the government and diffuse their efforts.

The discourse of a campaign will emphasize political divisions around the strategies and tactics of Covid management and inevitably undermine confidence and raise the level of anxiety.

The decision to call an election will make the government’s motives suspect — a critical foundation for faith in what government does. The government has the mandate to act now, it does not need confirmation of that. I understand that a majority would give it more authority to act unilaterally but it is by no means a sure thing and an insufficient rationale to proceed into an election at a time of uncertainty and anxiety.

There is little point in proceeding with an election unless the prospect of a majority is overwhelmingly likely. It is unlikely that any minority would be substantially more secure than the current one or give the government any more running room than it has now.