Liberatore shines against Milwaukee. When will St. Louis Cardinals hurler pitch again?

Matt Liberatore’s five innings of shutout ball Wednesday night led the Cardinals to a series win against Milwaukee, saw him outduel Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes and were sufficiently strong for the Cardinals to trust him with at least one more start on their coming road trip with two stops in Ohio.

When he makes that start will be determined in part by need. How he pitches in it could determine what the makeup of their starting rotation looks like in the weeks ahead.

“He’ll have another outing,” manager Oliver Marmol said Thursday. “We’re trying to figure out how we want to line that up moving forward before the two off days we have coming up.”

Liberatore’s first Major League start of 2023 came Wednesday in the sixth game of a stretch of 18 games in 18 days which ends after a home matchup May 30 with Kansas City. The new wrinkle to the MLB schedule which sees every team play every other team at least once has resulted in some quirks of the calendar, including consecutive off days on May 31 and June 1. That will allow the Cardinals to reset their rotation, and also provides an opportunity for a natural evaluative break.

A regular starter’s schedule would see Liberatore throw a full effort bullpen session this weekend on either Saturday or Sunday. Marmol allowed for the possibility the Cardinals could apply that mid-start work to a game setting, potentially using Liberatore in the bullpen on either of those two days.

Should that come to pass, the Cardinals could slot him to start toward the end of the road trip during their series in Cleveland. If he’s not needed this weekend, he would start in Cincinnati, the first stop on the trip.

Bottom line: he pitched well and he’ll pitch again. What’s unsaid, for now, is that impact that decision will have on the other pitchers in the rotation.

“We don’t have to make a decision on that just yet,” Marmol said. “He can (pitch from the bullpen) if needed.”

What the Cardinals need are innings and outs. Liberatore, their top starting pitching prospect, could not reliably provide them with either during his debut 2022 season.

With his fastball lagging in velocity, he found himself unwilling or unable to throw the pitch in the strike zone. That allowed hitters to disregard it as a threat, sapping the effectiveness of his best pitch, his curveball.

His four-seam fastball averaged 93.7 miles per hour in MLB in 2022 and his sinker averaged 92.8. On Wednesday night, those numbers were 95.2 and 95.6, respectively. In that smallest of sample sizes, he doubled his percentage of fastballs which generated swings and misses.

This version of his stuff plays. Last year’s version pushed him to the fringe.

“I came in (to spring training) a little bit heavier, so I feel like I don’t have to exert myself as much to try and throw that hard and reach back for it,” Liberatore said Wednesday after his start.

“The legs feed the wolf. Being able to carry that velo deep into games and have that sustained velo across the season definitely comes from having a solid foundation. Can’t shoot a cannon out of a canoe.”

Liberatore’s offseason work saw him consume 4300 calories every day in conjunction with his leg workouts, putting on approximately 20 pounds of muscle. For a pitcher, those 20 pounds are important in generating drive and power, as well as taking stress off the arm. And staying healthy will allow him to generate additional opportunities.

The Cardinals saw this opportunity coming several weeks in advance. The quirks in the schedule loomed as a challenge for covering innings even if the rotation had been in its best form; with some early season struggles, it became even more imperative to see whether Liberatore’s early minor league success would translate directly.

Despite his recent pitching lines at Memphis appearing to sag, that came with a logic. There was prescribed work that made him easier for minor league hitters to handle, but showed off some of the progress he needed to display in the big leagues.

“The things that you’re looking to see, you’re looking to see them every time out, and not just once or twice,” Liberatore said. “My goal is to go out and win every game, and when I take the mound that day, regardless of what the goal is, you’ve got to compete with what you’ve got.”

After three years of watching Randy Arozarena — for whom Liberatore was traded — star for the Tampa Bay Rays, the Cardinals are eager now to see the lefty compete here. His opportunity may have arisen out of uneven performances from starters in the early going, but its shape will be determined by how much he can manage to hold.

Those possibilities are coming now at a higher velocity. Liberatore hopes he’s done the work to be able to match.