Lightning’s salary cap obstacles appear daunting

TAMPA — Now that the hockey season is over, the focus turns to what is expected to be a busy offseason. The Lightning’s first-round playoff exit allowed the front office the extra time to evaluate players and crunch numbers that it didn’t have the past three seasons playing in the Stanley Cup final.

And general manager Julien BriseBois has a lot of work to do. Can he retain power forward Alex Killorn, or like they did with Ondrej Palat last season, will the Lightning lose another core piece due to salary-cap limitations?

Four members of the Lightning’s 2022-23 final-game lineup — forwards Killorn, Corey Perry and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, and defenseman Ian Cole — can be unrestricted free agents July 1, so there are potentially plenty of holes to fill. Forwards Ross Colton and Tanner Jeannot are tabbed for raises through restricted free agency.

Combine that with a cap number that hasn’t officially been set but is expected to increase by only $1 million from $82.5 million and BriseBois will have to perform his best cap magic yet.

“This is probably the worst offseason we’ve had,” BriseBois said during his season-exit interview last month. “Just the number of roster spots we have to fill and the cap space available to us is probably the most limited we’ve ever had it.”

Here’s what the Lightning face over the next few weeks.

An uncertain cap limit

The reason for the modest cap increase is complicated but revolves around the league’s escrow system spelled out in the collective bargaining agreement.

Players, who have a percentage of their salary withheld and put in escrow, still have to complete escrow payments owed to the owners caused by lost revenue from the pandemic.

The players are close to being paid up, and players, agents and general managers on teams against the cap have muted optimism that the cap might go up by an additional $1 million to $2 million, though it seems unlikely. A player such as Killorn would have benefited more from reaching free agency next summer or the one after.

Commissioner Gary Bettman has boasted that league revenues are up and the cap is expected to go up $10 million to $12 million over the next three years, but the bump might not be significant until next year. Team values are growing — the Lightning reportedly valued the team at $1.4 billion for a pending minority ownership sale — but the cap would have increased just $2 million over the past five seasons if $83.5 million is the limit.

Now more than ever, every million matters, especially for a team such as the Lightning, who have just 17 players under one-way contracts and only about $7.325 million of cap space left, including the final year of retired defenseman Brent Seabrook’s contract, which allows them $6.875 million of cap space through long-term injured reserve.

A mere $1 million bump could also hinder the Lightning from facilitating extensions for forwards Brandon Hagel and Steven Stamkos, who are slated for unrestricted free agency after next season. According to statistics website Evolving Hockey, Hagel is projected for a five-year, $6.071 million average annual value extension and Stamkos a three-year, $7.647 million extension.

64% in six players

The Lightning’s payroll is as top heavy as it has ever been, and that’s the cost of keeping a championship-caliber club together year after year.

If the salary cap ends up at $83.5 million, six players — Stamkos, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Mikhail Sergachev and Victor Hedman — will account for 64% of the Lightning’s cap cost, according to salary website CapFriendly.

Most of those players have been taking significant chunks of the payroll for years. Point’s $9.5 million average annual value extension began last season, and Sergachev’s eight-year extension, which makes him the team’s highest-paid defenseman with an $8.5 million average annual value, kicks in next season. His hit now accounts for 10.2% of the team’s cap threshold.

Also, the raises that two-way center Anthony Cirelli (a $1.45 million bump to $6.25 million) and top right-shot defenseman Erik Cernak (a $2.25 million bump to $5.2 million) will receive next season as their eight-year extensions kick in aren’t insignificant, especially considering the modest cap increase.

Altogether, Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak will receive $7.4 million in raises, more than the $6.75 million cap hit the Lightning saved by trading defenseman Ryan McDonagh last summer.

There will be no apologies for such a top-heavy payroll, and there shouldn’t be. It’s the price of winning with elite players. Of the six players taking up the 64% of the cap, all are homegrown with the exception of Sergachev, who was acquired in a trade with Montreal six summers ago as a 19-year-old, and as they progress in their careers, they command top dollar. It’s the reason BriseBois has the win-now mentality. It’s rare to have a core group of this caliber.

Forced to make a trade?

At the end of the season, BriseBois said he didn’t foresee having to trade a player under contract, like what happened last year with McDonagh. Still, the Lightning could be forced to move a big piece.

Though he is under team control as an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent, Colton could become another homegrown cap casualty. He is coming off a 16-goal, 32-point season, a dropoff from his 22-goal, 39-point rookie campaign, but he is due a significant raise after completing a two-year deal with a $1.125 million average annual value.

Trade-deadline acquisition Jeannot is the Lightning’s other potential restricted free agent. He is arbitration eligible and projected for a two-year, $2.105 million average annual value by Evolving Hockey. Given the bounty the Lightning gave up to acquire him from the Predators — their 2025 first-round draft pick, their 2024 second-round pick, and this year’s third-, fourth- and fifth-round picks, and defenseman Cal Foote — the team will certainly tender him a qualifying offer.

The Lightning could try to move Colton before the June 28-29 draft for a pick — their first selection doesn’t come until the sixth round — especially if they have any realistic hope of keeping Killorn. Losing both would be a major hit to their forward depth, taking away two of their top three left wings. The Lightning have only eight forwards under one-way contracts, and Jeannot would make nine.

According to Evolving Hockey, Colton is in line for a four-year, $3.351 million average annual value deal, which could make him a luxury under the Lightning’s cap limitations.

The qualifying-offer deadline is July 6. By then, the Lightning will better know where their roster stands.

Contact Eduardo A. Encina at eencina@tampabay.com. Follow @EddieintheYard.

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