Live Election Results: CA's Most Contested Congressional Races
LOS ANGELES, CA — The Polls are closed, deciding the fate of Congressional races up and down the state, including eight closely contested races. It will soon be apparent if the Republicans' good fortune will continue to decline in liberal California, Or if 2020 will be their comeback year after the state's GOP delegation was decimated in the blue wave of 2018.
As of 9 a.m. Wednesday seven of the state's eight competitive races are too close to call. Only one of the competitive races had been called with the Associated press declaring Democratic incumbent Rep. Josh Harder victorious over his Republican challenger in the 10th District. Two other races in Orange County were each nail-biters with less than 2,000 votes separating the candidates. As of 9 a.m., Rep. Harley Rouda trailed his Republican challenger Michelle Steel by less than 2,000 votes. In the 39th District Rep. Gil Cisneros' trailed Republican challenger former Assemblywoman Young Kim by about 1,200 votes. In both cases, the races are too close to call because the tally of mail-in ballots could flip the race.
In all, California’s 4th, 10th, 21st, 22nd, 25th, 39th, 48th, and 50th Congressional Districts are all rated competitive. Even before Election Day dawned, it was an uphill battle for Republicans. Democratic voters dwarfed Republican voters in early voting and returned ballots in record turnout.
According to Political Data Inc., 12,087,163 ballots — or 55 percent of all mail-in ballots sent out in California — had already been returned as the clock struck midnight on the eve of the election.
About 51 percent of the ballots returned were from registered Democrats and the remainder were evenly split between Republican and Independent or other party voters. The statewide trend is consistent with the national trend in that voter turnout is expected to set modern records nationwide Tuesday.
According to the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll released this week, 50 percent of Republican voters and those who lean right of center plan to vote on election day, compared to 34% of Democrats and left leaners and 48% of Independents.
Looked at another way, the results indicate that just under half of the voters showing up at the polls on election day will be Republicans, more than a quarter will be Democrats and another one in five will be independents.
LIVE CALIFORNIA CONGRESSIONAL RACE RESULTS IN COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS
District 4
Representing the sprawling rural and suburban edge of the Sacramento Valley.
District 10
Representing northern San Joaquin Valley
District 21
Representing San Joaquin Valley and includes Kings County and portions of Fresno, Kern, and Tulare counties
District 22
Representing the San Joaquin Valley, including parts of Fresno and Tulare counties.
District 25
Representing the northern edge of Los Angeles County and eastern Ventura County
District 39
Representing parts of Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties.
District 48
Representing coastal Orange County
District 50
Representing portions of San Diego and Riverside counties
Democrats swept into the House majority in 2018 in what was dubbed the blue wave, but in California it was really more of a blood bath. Back then, Democrats cut the Golden State’s GOP delegation almost in half by wrestling away six seats long held by Republicans. But what a difference two years makes!
Allegations of sexual misconduct chased a star freshman Democrat from office in the 25th District while the Republican congressman in the 50th District is headed to prison for misusing campaign funds. Now the races to fill both seats are competitive. And despite the political headwinds facing Republicans nationwide and in California, Republicans have a real shot at wrestling back some of the seats that flipped two years ago. Democrats are favored in the polls to retain the House and take the Senate along with 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but state Republican officials believe 2020 could be a comeback year in California.
But don’t expect to know every outcome on Election Day. In 2018, a handful of the closest races took days and even weeks for all votes to be tallied. With record voter turnout — the one outcome that is all but certain this election season — it may take several days for tight races to be called.
SEE ALSO: California’s 2020 Propositions Explained
The 48th and 39th
Once again, Republicans and Democrats find themselves wrestling for the soul of Orange County with two very close congressional races in the famously conservative county. The county went for Clinton in 2016 (the first Democrat favored in Orange County since Roosevelt), and the whole county flipped blue in 2018. However, the GOP considered that a fluke. The party put considerable money into the races to flip two of those seats back. Unlike 2018, they had the president’s coattails to ride on this election season. The bet was that Trump voters will help prop up Young Kim in the 39th and Michelle Steel in the 48th.
In the coastal 48th District, incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda fought for another term against Republican Michelle Steel, the chairwoman of the Orange County Board of Supervisors.
In the coastal 48th District, early returns flipped from a lead for incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda to an advantage for Republican Michelle Steel, the chairwoman of the Orange County Board of Supervisors. Just after midnight, Steel held just over 50% of the vote, after lagging Rouda earlier by a much wider margin. The race, however, remained too close to call.
Rouda touted his achievements in Congress, insisting he can work across the aisle to reach consensus agreements. He said he wants to "continue our work to lower prescription drug costs, protect our coastline, and stand up to the insiders and special interests that run Washington."
Steel said during her campaign that she was running to provide a "strong voice in Washington, D.C., who will honor promises made and stand up for us and our values." She pointed to her work on the Board of Supervisors, saying she fought higher taxes while working to reduce traffic congestion and "ensuring our bays and coastlines are clean."
It was expected to be a close race, insiders say. Democrats returned 110,223 mail-in ballots, compared with 115,949 for Republicans. Undeclared and voters from other parties returned 76,985 ballots.
"The Harley Rouda race, we are watching closely," said Ada Briceno, chairwoman of the Orange County Democratic Party, acknowledging it will likely be a nail biter.
Another Orange County congressional race being closely watched is Rep. Gil Cisneros' battle with former Assemblywoman Young Kim in the 39th District. It is a rematch of 2018, when Cisneros defeated the former Rep. Ed Royce's protege.
Cisnero seemed poised to win based on early vote totals showing him with 53.6% and Kim lagging with 46.4%, but the race tightened into the early morning hours Wednesday with the two candidates splitting the total nearly equally around midnight.
Two years ago, Kim was leading and even traveled to Washington, D.C., for orientation for newly elected congressional representatives, only to be overtaken by Cisneros in late-arriving ballots in a district that has residents in Orange, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino counties.
Fred Smoller, professor of political science at Chapman University, predicted the incumbents would prevail.
“All the Democrats will be re-elected,” he predicted.
According to Smoller, the president is so unpopular in California, he’s likely to be a drag on congressional candidates.
“The Republicans are tied to Trump, and they’re also tied to the pandemic,” Smoller said.
A prime example is Steel, he said. As an Orange County Supervisor, Steel voted against an ordinance to require masks in the food industry, businesses and pharmacies, and she was a vocal proponent of the summer’s reopen movement epicentered in Huntington Beach.
“Donald Trump has a very strong, intense base here, but they are a minority group,” Smoller said. “They are loud. They are vocal, but they only get to vote once.”
Places such as Orange County saw unprecedented turnout among early voters, and that favors Democrats, said Smoller. With one week before the election, about two thirds of the ballots returned in Orange County were from Democrats, he said.
But OC Republican party chairman Fred Whitaker told Voice of OC the Trump base is fired up and will help take back the seats lost in 2018.
“In our Congressional races and our legislative races, the President being on the ballot drives the base … even though the president lost Orange County (in 2016), we won all the Congressional and legislative seats,” Whitaker told Voice of OC.
He also said voters in Orange County blame Democrats for the coronavirus shutdown.
“It’s a self-inflicted economic wound here in California and somebody’s going to have to pay the price, and that’s going to be the Democrats,” Whitaker told Voice of OC.
The Cook Political Report had the Orange County’s 48th District leaning in Rouda’s favor and the 39th District as likely to go for Democratic incumbent Gil Cisneros.
The Tumultuous 25th
Christy Smith held a small lead over Mike Garcia in early returns Tuesday evening, garnering 51.7% of the vote to Garcia's 48.3% in their rematch to stake a claim to the 25th Congressional District.
Those numbers represent a margin of less than 8,000 votes.
Smith is hoping to avenge an earlier loss to the Republican Garcia and take back the seat for the Democratic Party.
It was technically the fourth time in nine months the duo faced off at the ballot box. In March, Smith and Garcia finished one-two in a special election to fill out the term of Rep. Katie Hill, who resigned following the online release of salacious photos and allegations of an extramarital affair with a staff member.
On that same ballot, Smith and Garcia also topped essentially the same field of candidates in a separate primary race to fill Hill's seat for the next two years.
In May, Smith and Garcia squared off in the runoff of the March special election to complete Hill's original term, and Garcia emerged victorious and was sworn into Congress.
The winner in the current race will take over the seat for the next two years.
The 25th District stretches from the Antelope Valley into Ventura County. It was one of several Southland districts targeted by Republicans after sweeping losses the party suffered in 2018.
Smith was endorsed by many of the area's biggest Democratic names and by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Her campaign website touted a variety of priority issues, led by improving public education, ending "corruption in Washington," boosting support for first responders and ensuring access to affordable health care.
Garcia is a former Navy pilot who said he was inspired to vie for the post because Hill "did not represent our moderate district. I have the choice to stand on the sidelines and see what happens but that is not in my DNA. This is an extension of my desire to serve, this time to fight for my district."
Courting the Right In The 50th
In San Diego and Riverside counties, the Republican candidate to fill former Rep. Duncan Hunter's seat in the 50th District, is no rookie. For nearly 20 years Darrell Issa represented the nearby 49th District, which included parts of Orange County. Confronted with the blue wave 2018, he opted not to run for re-election. But he returned to run in the 50th, where the race was leaning Republican, according to The Cook Report. But was a surprisingly competitive race for a district that has long been conservative.
Former Obama White House intern Ammar Campa-Najjar ran in the 50th two years after losing to Hunter by four percentage points. Though running as Democrat, he courted conservatives, promising to uphold conservative values including 2nd Amendment rights and border security. The strategy seemed to be working over the summer when polls had the two candidates running neck-and-neck, but a poll released Tuesday by the San Diego Union-Tribune and 10News, had Issa running away with the race by 11 percentage points.
The Rematch In The 21st
One of the tightest races was in the rural 21st District just outside of Fresno. Democratic Rep TJ Cox unseated three-term Republican David Valadao in 2018 by less than 1,000 votes. It was a stunning victory that came weeks after election day when Valadao was up by more than 4,000 votes. But as the mail-in ballots were counted Cox pulled ahead. This year, Republicans fought to flip the seat they saw as one of their best chances for a gain. It was a brutal campaign the Los Angeles Times described as “parental discretion advised for political ugliness.”
The district is majority Latino and working class. Major voting issues in the region focus on agricultural water rights and immigration.
Like many of his fellow Democratic candidates, Cox tied Valadao to the president.
“You have a president that has absolutely no respect for the Latino community,” Cox told the Los Angeles Times. “He insults them at every turn, calls them rapists and murderers. ... The Donald and David show was hurting people of the valley. They stood up and made their voices heard in 2018, and they’re going to do it again in 2020.”
Valadao largely steered clear of the president, telling ABC30, if he gets his old job back, he’ll focus on "Making sure we have a clean, reliable water supply for our communities, for our farmers. It's something that we struggle through no matter what. Common sense business policy, good immigration policy."
The race was rated a toss-up by The Cook Political Report.
Tempting Targets In the 22nd And 4th Districts
The remaining two competitive races were rated “Likely Republican.” They’re perennial temptations for the Democratic party, but they’ve long remained just out of reach.
In the 22nd District, Rep Devin Nunes (R-Tulare) led Democratic challenger Phil Arballo in the polls the entire election season by as much as 14 points and as little as 5 points. But more than any member of the House, he is seen as a Trump attack dog, making him a tempting target for liberals in California. It’s also made him something of a hero on the right, earning him votes in the Republican leaning district as well as a massive campaign warchest. This election cycle, he raised $23,622,000 compared to Arballo’s $4,390,937, according to OpenSecrets.org.
Similarly, Democrats competed in the 4th District, which runs deep red. Longtime Rep. Tom McClintock was leading in the polls, but not by much. Active in state Republican politics since the 70s, McClintock has solid name recognition, and Democrats were itching to turn his sprawling rural district including the suburban edge of the Sacramento Valley blue. Democratic challenger Brynne Kennedy outspent McClintock $2,429, 403 to $1,578,308, according to OpenSecrets.org.
With 86 percent of precincts reporting, McClintock held a roughly 20,000 vote lead Wednesday morning. He garnered 172,936 votes (53 percent) compared to challengers Brynne Kennedy's 153,644 votes (47 percent).
The 10th District
Rep. Josh Harder defeated his Republican opponent Tuesday night. The Associated Press called the race in Harder's favor. With 67 percent of precincts reporting Hader garnered 59.3 percent of the vote
Swept into office in 2018 on the blue wave, Harder, a venture capitalist, was in a tight race to keep his seat in the northern San Joaquin Valley. The race had been surprisingly tight given an explosive report by Politico in May centered on Republican challenger Ted Howze’s social media posts denigrating Muslims, DREAMERS, and a school shooting survivor while also accusing prominent female Democratic politicians of murder and drug abuse.
For his part, Howze denied being the author of the posts on his social media account, saying he mistakenly authorized someone else to have access to his accounts. He denounced the posts as "negative and ugly ideas." His supporters don't appear to be holding the issue against him. A Siena College/The New York Times Upshot poll released Oct. 23 showed Harder leading by anywhere from just 2 to 9 points.
Both candidates made healthcare a focal point of the race. Harder said he will continue to fight for more testing and protective gear and a more aggressive strategy for combatting the pandemic than Republicans have put forth. Howze promised to fight for reduced healthcare costs.
City News Service contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on the Across California Patch
