Can Liz Truss Survive?

Kitty Donaldson
·6 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Liz Truss is only in the fifth week of her premiership but doubts are growing about whether she can survive the year, let alone lead the UK Conservatives into the next general election due by January 2025.

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She has already been forced into reversing her headline pledge to cut income tax for the highest earners, and her officials are now looking at how they can roll back other parts of her plan to overhaul the UK economy that has triggered turmoil in financial markets.

Many politicians in her party say Truss’s economic project is over before it’s even started. But whether and how to remove her, so soon after Boris Johnson was ousted, is complicated. Below are some of the dynamics in play:

How Much Trouble Is She In?

Extremely serious. The atmosphere among Conservative MPs is febrile, with demands intensifying for a complete change of course. But Truss has spent years calling for a low-tax, small-state transformation of Britain and came to power promising to deliver it. If her MPs can’t stomach it -- and polls suggest voters can’t, either -- what is the point of keeping her in 10 Downing Street?

That brings the question of a leadership change to the forefront. Some MPs think it’s better to move on from Truss as soon as possible before more damage is done -- especially those with an eye on the turmoil in bond markets and the shredding of the Tory self-image for sound economic management.

The Counter-Argument

Changing leader is complicated. Even some Conservatives who oppose her think it would trigger more derision among voters. Given the criticism that the Tories don’t have a mandate for her economic vision, a major fear is that installing yet another new leader would inevitably then require a snap general election.

Opinion polls indicate that would lead to an electoral wipe out for the Conservatives, with Keir Starmer’s Labour Party consistently holding a huge lead in recent surveys. Opinion is split on what that means: stick with Truss while watering down her proposals, or take the gamble with a new leader -- and hope they can stave off a general election for as long as possible.

Can the Tories Actually Get Rid of Her Now?

Yes. Party rules should mean Truss is in theory immune from a leadership challenge for a year. But political realities make things fluid, and the rules can be changed in an afternoon if enough MPs urge the executive of the backbench 1922 Committee -- which oversees leadership issues -- to do so.

While some MPs have said they have written to its veteran chairman Graham Brady to urge a change, much will depend on the pressure reaching a critical mass. For now, there are still some Tory MPs saying publicly she should be given a chance to prove herself and turn the opinion polls around.

Some of Truss’s Top Team Say Her Project May Already Be Over

Beyond a formal vote on her leadership, an avalanche of Cabinet and ministerial resignations could also bring her down. That’s what happened with Johnson in July, but the odds are slim for a new leader especially as she has stuffed her top team with political allies.

Who Are the Leading Tory Plotters?

The plotting ranges from muttered private conversations between MPs and off-record briefings to journalists, to public attacks from former Cabinet big beasts including Michael Gove. Former Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has been out with a spreadsheet collating dissent.

To compound the problem, MPs complain of a cult-like approach from a Downing Street that only listens to an inner circle. Truss has taken steps to reach out to colleagues, but a clear-the-air meeting on Wednesday backfired when some MPs accused her of trashing the party’s reputation.

Beware the Poisoned Chalice

A successful plot would likely require a consensus on who would take over, given Tory MPs recognize the need to try to prevent the selection falling to grassroots members, a process that would take weeks.

Ben Wallace is touted although he has said he’s happy as defense secretary. Shapps would like the job, and Truss’s early leadership rival Penny Mordaunt is already positioning herself for life after Truss.

A major problem is the deficit in the polls and the risk that taking the job now would mean relinquishing it after the next election. One thing most MPs agree on is that Truss would also have to own the big U-turn on economic policy before she is removed, to allow her successor a proper fresh start.

Could Truss Sacrifice Kwarteng to Try to Bolster Her Position?

The ConHome website, which is influential among Conservative members, raised that prospect this week. The argument is that firing the chancellor could provide political cover for a U-turn on the tax cuts he announced on Sept. 23.

But Truss and Kwarteng are regarded as a political double act in the Tory party, ideologically aligned on their program of low taxes and deregulation. The prime minister herself has described the pair as moving in lockstep.

It means if Truss does cast Kwarteng aside in a bid to save her premiership, she would still take the political hit for the economic turbulence they triggered. It seems more likely Truss would try to strengthen her position by empowering a big-hitter from another party faction. She has overruled Kwarteng already, on the choice of the most senior civil secretary at the Treasury.

“I’m not going anywhere,” Kwarteng said in a pooled interview Thursday.

Might Truss Call a General Election?

This would be the nuclear -- and unlikely -- option. The argument for one is that Truss recognizes she is boxed in and unable to deliver the economic program she’s spent a political career pursuing. If Tory MPs are blocking her, why not roll the dice on getting a mandate from voters?

But the Tory party is not election-ready, and Truss’s personal rating in opinion polls is dire. Instead of seeking an election, she could decide to press ahead with her economic plans and dare her MPs to defy her. But if she loses, an election -- or change of leader -- becomes likely anyway.

Having appeased them already on income tax, she will struggle to avoid doing the same on other contentious issues. There are looming problems, and a cold winter with high energy bills and soaring interest rates could cost Truss and her Tories even more support.

If she survives until the spring, a bad performance in local elections would likely see jostling in the Conservative Party to take her place.

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