Local congressional race may serve as signal

Jun. 25—TRIAD — On election night Nov. 8, if you want to see what direction the presidential midterms are tilting, you might not have to look that far.

The 6th Congressional District race between freshman Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning and Republican challenger Christian Castelli may offer a signal on whether or how much of a red wave sweeps GOP candidates into Congress, said John Dinan, a Wake Forest University political science professor.

"If in November Kathy Manning is able to hold on to her 6th District seat in a tough political environment for Democrats, that could be a sign that Democratic losses are consistent with and not much greater than traditional midterm losses that can be expected for the party holding the presidency," Dinan said. "But if Manning is not able to win, that would be a sign that the 2022 elections have turned into a wave election of the kind seen in years such as 1994 and 2010, when Democrats suffered very dramatic losses of seats."

The 6th District was redrawn last year to be more competitive for a Republican but still leans Democratic.

But political analysts say Democrats are at particularly high risk of losing seats because of the low popularity rating of President Joe Biden and the bite of higher inflation and gas prices. But that could change because of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Friday overturning the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion.

Manning won the seat two years ago in a district that tilted heavily toward a Democratic candidate. In the 2020 general election, Manning received 62% of the vote against Republican Lee Haywood in a contest for an open seat because Republican incumbent Mark Walker didn't seek another term.

At the time, the district covered all of Guilford County and the southeastern section of Forsyth County.

The redrawn 6th District still covers all of Guilford County and parts of southeastern Forsyth County but also includes all of Rockingham County and virtually all of Caswell County. The latter two are rural but heavily Republican counties, said Martin Kifer, chairman of the Political Science Department at High Point University.

"The 6th District is still drawn as favoring a Democrat but a little bit less than last time around," he said. "There is an advantage there for a Democratic incumbent, but it's possible that you will see a tough challenge to a lot of Democrats on the ballot in the fall."

Manning said she recognizes the significance of her race.

"This election is critical to determining the future of our country, and I'm not taking anything for granted," Manning said. "I'm knocking on doors and meeting with voters at community events to share the work I'm doing for them in Washington."

Castelli couldn't be reached this week by The Enterprise.

If abortion becomes a deciding factor, Manning and Castelli hold sharply opposing views.

Manning said the Supreme Court ruling striking down Roe v. Wade shows the importance for Congress to pass the Women's Health Protection Act, which would codify abortion access into law.

"Today's devastating Supreme Court opinion will set our society back generations," Manning said Friday.

On his campaign website, Castelli condemns abortion.

"As a devout Christian, I will protect the unborn from conception to birth. I believe life begins at conception and we must do everything in our power to protect the defenseless at every stage of life," Castelli's statement said.

The party in control of the White House generally loses seats in presidential midterms. Republicans made substantial gains in the 2010 midterms during the first term of Democratic President Barack Obama, while Democrats posted strong increases in the 2018 midterm election of Republican President Donald Trump.

pjohnson@hpenews.com — 336-888-3528 — @HPEpaul