The risks and rewards of Nancy Mace’s shocking McCarthy vote

South Carolina’s Nancy Mace was the most unlikely among a small group of Republicans who rebelled against their party in a historic House leadership ouster. With the dust still anything but settled in Congress — confusion swirls concerning how the lower chamber will move forward in replacing now-former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — questions hang over the outspoken congresswoman from the Lowcountry:

Why would Mace risk alienating herself from more than 200 colleagues in her own party? Was it all for attention? Has she doomed herself as an outcast, or somehow propelled herself higher up the political ladder?

Her biggest risk is to be lonely in Washington, a fate many politicians fear, which South Carolina political experts zeroed in on. At the end of the day, was Mace’s decision worth the risk?

“If you’re a politician, one thing you don’t want to be is lonely,” Katon Dawson, a former South Carolina Republican Party chairman, said. “We’ll see if this is a good Washington move for Nancy.”

Since her successful vote, Mace has been nothing but adamant about her resentment toward McCarthy and his “unkept promises,” specifically regarding the passage of federal legislation on rape and gun laws. That’s why she voted him out, she says.

But among some political watchers in her home state, theories have formed that Mace’s vote wasn’t just about McCarthy’s promises and policies — it was a media grab, some say.

After all, she made national headlines and was on Fox News just a few hours after she voted. Also following her vote, Mace sent out a statement and fundraising message, writing that her decision wasn’t about the “right” or “left” but about “trust and keeping your word.”

Other reasoning has led politicos to believe Mace truly isn’t willing to work with others in Congress and doesn’t necessarily care about doing so. She’s going to make a decision if she wants to without considering social consequences, some said.

Mace said this herself in a South Carolina press call after the vote and added she “owed no one in DC anything.”

“Those of you that have been covering me since I was a state lawmaker will know that I will represent my constituents, and that I march the beat of my own drum,” Mace said during the press call.

Multiple political watchers related this strategy to one that has been associated with U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, alluding to the fact that both of the South Carolina Republicans want to be relevant and don’t care what people will say of them.

More than that, bad press is still press, and any press is good.

In the days leading up to the vote, Mace had gone on “The View” and told reporters that she wasn’t sure how she would vote but that she wasn’t happy with McCarthy and could understand the frustration of Rep. Matt Gaetz, the Florida Republican who led the effort to oust the speaker.

However, on a South Carolina press call, Mace told reporters she had been leaning to vote him out for a “few weeks.”

Others speculate that Mace is trying to climb the political ladder, and making news like the McCarthy vote will only boost her political potential. Another Palmetto State analyst said maybe there was other turmoil, that she and McCarthy may have had personality or personal clashes, like many speculate McCarthy had with Gaetz. Some even added that while less likely, Mace may voted the way she did because of unkept promises, exactly as she has said to the media.

The “why” behind Mace’s unexpected vote could be a mix of multiple theories, but regardless, Mace made a jump that many others would be fearful of — and, some add, for good reason.

‘A political animal’

Mace has positioned herself as an “independent thinker” in the Republican Party. She has worked on legislation and joint proposals that were supported by some Democrats and has prided herself in pushing for what she wants to get done, not just what her party wants.

She sponsored and has been vocal about two bills concerning women and rape and one bill on gun violence.

“Nancy is a very calculated politician. Nancy’s a savvy politician” Dawson said. “That move wasn’t made until she knew it would matter. She can take the pounding if she makes a mistake. Nancy is a political animal.”

Dawson, however, noted that you have to have people who trust you in Washington.

Dawson added that whatever way Mace’s decision plays out among her colleagues, her constituents in South Carolina may not know or even care that she made the vote to oust McCarthy.

“I’m not sure it matters to anyone in that district who the speaker of the House is. In her district, voting a speaker out is probably pretty popular,” Dawson said. “Nancy lives and breathes her district.”

Mace has been a constant in the news since she was first elected to the U.S. House in 2020, defeating Democratic incumbent Joe Cunningham. However, the attention on her has created some unrest among her colleagues. There aren’t many people in politics who weren’t talking about Nancy Mace, even before she decided to oust McCarthy.

Jamie Lovegrove, a South Carolina political analyst and former politics reporter, said from his understanding of conversations with South Carolina politicos or D.C. representatives, a good few have not been very fond of Mace, even before last week’s speaker vote. In some ways, she has been isolated for a while.

“It is certainly my understanding from conversations that a lot of other members of the delegation do not like Nancy Mace very much,” Lovegrove said.

There are a few reasons cited for other lawmakers’ distaste for Mace, one of which is frustration about how often she is in the spotlight.

“She comes in, basically overnight, and has become a constant figure on Fox News, a constant figure in all manner of news outlets across the country,” Lovegrove said. “There may be an added layer of jealousy from some of these other Republicans because she has developed fame. But there is also a lot of frustration about the ways she has gone about doing that.”

For instance, her decision to vote out McCarthy.

When asked to comment on speculation that she made the decision for media purposes, Mace’s team did not respond.

After the vote, McCarthy told reporters that he called Mace’s chief of staff and said, “’Can you please tell me, I don’t understand? Where have I not kept my word?’” McCarthy said. “Chief of staff said, ‘You have kept your word 100%.’”

Risk and reward — was it worth it?

While South Carolina political watchers are skeptical of Mace’s intentions on the vote, they said Mace made a “calculated” decision, knowing exactly what she was doing when she made it.

Mace has never been seen as a part of the “hard-right” side of the party, like Florida’s Gaetz. And a leap like the McCarthy vote is not being taken lightly by fellow Republicans and was a definite risk no matter what her reasoning was.

“Nancy Mace has been flying pretty close to the sun for a very long time, and I think a lot of people wonder, surely, eventually one way or another, she’s going to get burnt,” Lovegrove said. “The question is, is this that moment?”

If the Republican party loses the House majority in the next election, the anger toward Mace and the hard-right faction may only to worsen from party members.

“I think all eight of the members who voted the way they did are going to get a lot of heat from their colleagues, and I think she has a particular risk, because for the other seven, they were already kind of seen on the fringe of the party, and she was not,” Lovegrove said. “I think she probably still had opportunities to work together with some of these folks and I think that may be in jeopardy now.

“She’s weighing the risk and reward here because she may be thinking, ‘The risk is maybe low because people will forget, forgive me, and the reward is that people will give me attention,’” Lovegrove said.

A few hours after the vote, Mace went on Fox News with U.S. Rep. Andy Barr, a Kentucky Republican who voted to keep McCarthy in the position. Barr said while trust is important, last Tuesday was a “sad day” for the Republican Party. He voiced his frustration with policies that would fall through the cracks during the time representatives will spend electing a speaker.

“Joining with Democrats to defeat conservative bills is not advancing the conservative cause. This has been a very successful year for Republicans until today,” Barr said.

On the press call with South Carolina reporters, Mace said no one in the delegation had given her heat for the decision.

However, Politico reported that “knives are out,” for Mace.

“It’s disgraceful,” Rep. Steve Womack, R-Arkansas, a longtime McCarthy ally, told Politico. “If the purpose is because it’s going to help me build my brand and gonna bring a little bit more money to my campaign,” Womack added of Mace, “then I think you need to question why you’re here.”

But if other lawmakers continue to sling mud on Mace, it may only increase her popularity, Lovegrove noted. Receiving attention can be a “valuable” way to influence the political conversation, and supporters could argue she is doing her job effectively in this way.

However, she has to remember that she needs to keep her job, if she wants it.

By potentially alienating her party, Mace risks not only struggling to pass legislation she cares about, but having to campaign for and by herself.

The consensus is, a lot of people may be angry with Mace, but more than that, people are greatly concerned about the perception of politics right now.

“It shows the Republican Party is completely dysfunctional,” Dawson said. “I blame all of them, every one of them. On a day where people trusted Republicans to trust us, we kicked the speaker out.”

Dawson said when you look at this decision, you wonder if it looks sane, and does it look in control?

“It doesn’t look sane, and it certainly does not look functioning,” he added.

The presidential contest will put the McCarthy news into the shadows over time, but that doesn’t mean Mace’s colleagues will forget, South Carolina political watchers noted.

“In politics, you need friends. It was eight Republicans against 202. I do not think I’d want to be one of those eight, I’d be extremely lonely. That speaks volumes about who those people are, and I’d say, you better enjoy the company you keep,” one state political watcher said.