Pacifist Japan Embraces Strong Military in World of Threats

Isabel Reynolds
·5 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Japan is distancing itself from the pacifist stance it’s embraced since its World War II defeat, in a historic shift met by little of the outrage that’s marked security policy changes in the past.

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Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has cast aside a decades-old defense spending cap, aiming to bolster outlays by 60% over the next five years. Last week’s new national security strategy enshrined a decision to obtain precision cruise missiles capable of striking neighboring China, North Korea and Russia.

“It’s unprecedented in the post-World War II era,” said Christopher Johnstone, a former US National Security Council director for East Asia, and now senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adding that the planned defense spending increase “shatters the norm established decades ago.”

Following Beijing’s clampdown on Hong Kong, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of tensions over Taiwan — including Chinese missiles lobbed into waters near Japan’s southwestern islands — public opinion has shifted. Now people openly opposed to a military build-up are in the minority, according to opinion surveys. Politicians have wrangled over how to fund the changes, rather than whether they violate the war-renouncing constitution.

“To be frank, the status quo isn’t sufficient,” Kishida said Friday, as he laid out his plans for Japan’s biggest increase in defense spending since the end of World War II. The overhaul comes as many worry that the threats posed by the country’s nuclear-armed neighbors have become more imminent and ominous.

A survey carried out by the Mainichi newspaper on Dec. 17-18 found that 48% of respondents were in favor of the military expansion, compared with 41% against. A separate poll by the Asahi newspaper found 56% in favor of Japan gaining the capability to launch counterstrikes against missile attacks.

Under the constitution drafted by occupying US forces after the war, Japan focused on economic development, relying on its sole treaty ally for a “nuclear umbrella” to fend off threats from its neighbors. Its so-called Self-Defense Forces haven’t killed a single person in battle since their formation.

The government began making changes to its security stance after it was accused of “checkbook diplomacy” during the 1990-91 Gulf War for contributing $13 billion but no troops to the U.S.-led effort to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait.

Each step toward becoming a “normal” country met with alarm and sometimes huge public demonstrations — including tens of thousands who took to the streets in 2015 to oppose laws aimed at making it easier for Japan to defend an ally. This time’s different.

“It’s a hard time to be a pacifist,” said Koichi Nakano, a professor of political science at Sophia University in Tokyo and critic of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. “It’s not just Japan, it’s Sweden, it’s Germany, it’s Finland, joining NATO or reinforcing commitments to NATO.”

Long held back by its own historical baggage, Germany aims to hike defense spending to more than 2% of gross domestic product annually, in line with North Atlantic Treaty Organization targets, although procurement issues currently look set to hamper that effort. Sweden and Finland are both seeking to join NATO, in a break with their more neutral tradition.

Kishida’s low-key style may be helping the public to swallow the plans, even though they’re in some ways more ambitious than those his hawkish former boss, Shinzo Abe, pushed through during his record term as premier. Abe increased defense spending modestly, but made scant progress on a plan to change the pacifist Article Nine of the constitution — a founding principle of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party — before he stepped down in August 2020. He continued to campaign for more defense spending until his assassination in July.

“Kishida is not Abe,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, specializing in Japanese security policy. “Abe for better or worse had a certain reputation as a hawkish, right-wing guy. Kishida came into office and people thought he was more from the dovish faction of the LDP. So there’s not that sense of skepticism.”

Opponents of the policy blamed the absence of major protests on the way the government has framed the issue, as well as the lack of any parliamentary debate that could have fired up public opinion. The strategy was formulated by the ruling parties and officials and doesn’t require parliamentary approval.

“They are saying Japan may be attacked in a one-sided way, but Japan is also carrying out military exercises with the US and South Korea,” said Nahoko Hishiyama, 33, as she took part in a small demonstration outside parliament Thursday. “We are taking provocative actions. No one reports about that.”

Polls show public opposition is focused on the prospect of tax rises to fund the expansion — with 69% of respondents to the Mainichi poll saying they were against such a move. Amid wrangling over the tax, Kishida’s voter support fell to new lows in the Mainichi and Asahi polls.

Japan’s Ruling Party Considers Corporate Tax Hike for Defense

The US, which has long pressed Japan to bolster its defenses, has welcomed the changes. China protested its depiction as an “unprecedented” challenge in the new strategy. Foreign ministry officials in South Korea — under a conservative president who is seeking to mend ties with Japan — said discussions on counterstrike capability should be transparent and conducted in a way that contributes to regional stability, Yonhap News Agency reported.

Two days after the policy was unveiled, North Korea fired off two suspected ballistic missiles thought to be capable of reaching any part of Japan, adding to its tally of scores of missile launches this year.

“Even if you say you are against war and you want to opt for diplomacy, sometimes the other party comes and punches you,” said Itsunori Onodera, a former defense minister who currently serves as head of an LDP panel on security policy. “So there’s no choice but to prepare for what might come.”

--With assistance from Yuki Hagiwara, Yasutaka Tamura and Winnie Hsu.

(Updates with poll in fourth-from-last paragraph.)

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