A Look At The Fair Value Of Midea Real Estate Holding Limited (HKG:3990)

Simply Wall St

Does the April share price for Midea Real Estate Holding Limited (HKG:3990) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Midea Real Estate Holding

The method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow are will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥3.4k CN¥3.4k CN¥3.1k CN¥2.9k CN¥2.9k CN¥2.8k CN¥2.8k CN¥2.8k CN¥2.8k CN¥2.9k
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ -5.04% Est @ -2.93% Est @ -1.45% Est @ -0.41% Est @ 0.31% Est @ 0.82% Est @ 1.17%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 13.92% CN¥3.0k CN¥2.6k CN¥2.1k CN¥1.7k CN¥1.5k CN¥1.3k CN¥1.1k CN¥989 CN¥875 CN¥777

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= CN¥15.96b

"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 13.9%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.9b × (1 + 2%) ÷ (13.9% – 2%) = CN¥24b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = CN¥CN¥24b ÷ ( 1 + 13.9%)10 = CN¥6.65b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥22.62b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate in the company’s reported currency of CN¥19. However, 3990’s primary listing is in China, and 1 share of 3990 in CNY represents 1.17 ( CNY/ HKD) share of SEHK:3990, so the intrinsic value per share in HKD is HK$22.22. Compared to the current share price of HK$22, the company appears about fair value at a 1.0% discount to what it is available for right now. DCFs are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

SEHK:3990 Intrinsic value, April 16th 2019

The assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Midea Real Estate Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 2. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Midea Real Estate Holding, I've compiled three essential factors you should further examine:

  1. Financial Health: Does 3990 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 3990's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of 3990? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the HKG every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.