A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Polaris Media ASA (OB:POL)

Simply Wall St

How far off is Polaris Media ASA (OB:POL) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Want to participate in a short research study? Help shape the future of investing tools and you could win a $250 gift card!

Check out our latest analysis for Polaris Media

The model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Levered FCF (NOK, Millions) NOK98.78 NOK104.37 NOK109.06 NOK113.06 NOK116.57 NOK119.71 NOK122.60 NOK125.32 NOK127.93 NOK130.47
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 7.33% Est @ 5.66% Est @ 4.49% Est @ 3.67% Est @ 3.1% Est @ 2.7% Est @ 2.42% Est @ 2.22% Est @ 2.08% Est @ 1.98%
Present Value (NOK, Millions) Discounted @ 7.97% NOK91.49 NOK89.53 NOK86.65 NOK83.20 NOK79.44 NOK75.56 NOK71.67 NOK67.86 NOK64.15 NOK60.60

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= NOK770.14m

"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = øre130m × (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (8% – 1.8%) = øre2.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = NOKøre2.1b ÷ ( 1 + 8%)10 = NOK992.91m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is NOK1.76b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of NOK36.16. Relative to the current share price of NOK29.2, the company appears about fair value at a 19% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

OB:POL Intrinsic value, May 22nd 2019

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Polaris Media as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.042. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Polaris Media, I've put together three essential factors you should look at:

  1. Financial Health: Does POL have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of POL? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every NO stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.