A look at what must happen for Heat to avoid play-in and why Miami is very much at risk
The Miami Heat stands very much at risk of being subjected to the NBA’s play-in round, with a difficult remaining schedule and not much margin for error.
At 35-31, the Heat entered Wednesday night standing sixth in the East, one half game ahead of 34-31 Boston, which could move from seventh to sixth — and flip positions with the Heat — with a win at Orlando on Wednesday night.
Teams seeded seventh through 10th must participate in the play-in round, a potential predicament that Heat players shrugged off this week.
Of the four teams jockeying for seeds four through seven, the Heat has the second-most difficult remaining schedule: home against Minnesota, two games at Boston, home to Philadelphia, at Milwaukee and at Detroit.
Assessing the Heat’s chances of upward mobility against those teams:
▪ Boston: The Heat needs to win two games at Boston — on Sunday and Tuesday — to win the tiebreaker between those teams. If the Celtics win both, they almost assuredly will finish ahead of the Heat.
If the teams split, Boston would win the tiebreaker and would be well positioned to finish ahead of the Heat because of an easier remaining schedule: at Orlando on Wednesday, at Chicago, the two games against the Heat, at Cleveland, at Minnesota and at New York.
While the Heat must play two of the Eastern Conference’s elite (Philadelphia, Milwaukee), Boston doesn’t play a top-three seed in either conference.
But the good news for the Heat is that the Celtics’ schedule is road-heavy, and the Celtics are 13-18 away from home this season.
▪ Atlanta: The Heat entered Wednesday one game behind No. 5 Atlanta, with the Hawks owning the tiebreaker by virtue of winning two of three games in the season series.
So the Heat must make up two games against the Hawks, and the odds would be against that considering the difficulty of Miami’s remaining schedule, and the fact Atlanta finishes the season with five games against teams with losing records.
Aside from Wednesday’s late home game against Phoenix, the Hawks play only teams below .500: at Indiana, two home games against surging Washington, home against Orlando and home against Houston.
The Hawks entered Wednesday 20-11 at home and with just one remaining road game.
▪ Knicks: Unless the Heat beats Boston twice on the road in the next week, the Knicks represent the best chance for the Heat to avoid the play-in — but only if New York unravels during a difficult remaining schedule and the Heat plays well.
The Knicks’ arduous remaining schedule includes games late Wednesday at Denver, at Phoenix, at the Clippers, at the Lakers, and then home to San Antonio, Charlotte and Boston.
The fourth-seeded Knicks entered that late Wednesday game in Colorado standing 2.5 games ahead of the Heat, at 37-28. But the Heat owns the tiebreaker with New York.
So let’s say the Knicks go 2-5 in that grueling remaining schedule. In that scenario, the Heat would finish ahead of the Knicks by going 4-2. And by finishing ahead of the Knicks, the Heat would avoid the play-in round.
▪ If Miami struggles badly down the stretch, the Heat stands at some risk of falling below No. 8 Charlotte. The eighth-seeded Hornets entered Wednesday at 32-33, 2.5 games behind the Heat but owning the tiebreaker with Miami.
The Hornets are home for their next five games — against Chicago, Orlando, New Orleans, Denver and the Clippers — and then close at New York and at Washington.
If the Heat finishes seventh and Charlotte eighth, Miami would host the play-in game between the teams, with the winner advancing to the playoffs as the seventh seed and the loser playing the winner of the game between the ninth and 10th seeds, a game that will determine the East’s eighth seed.
If Charlotte finishes seventh and the Heat eighth, the Hornets would host that 7-8 play-in game against Miami.
The odds of the Heat falling to ninth or 10th appear remote. Miami entered Wednesday with a four-game lead over No. 9 Indiana and a 4.5-game lead over No. 10 Washington.
Heat players don’t seem concerned about the play-in scenario.
“It’s not discussed in the locker room,” Trevor Ariza said. “It really doesn’t matter. Wherever you are seeded is going to be tough. Worrying about play-in or not play-in, I don’t think it makes much sense… Whatever happens, happens. If we end up there, we have got to deal with that when we get there.”
Goran Dragic also downplayed the play-in scenario, noting “I’m motivated to be as high as possible. As long as there is going to be opportunity to reach those higher seeds. We definitely want to have home-court advantage if possible.”
Dragic conceded that the Heat “is tired. But that’s no excuse. Everybody has similar schedules. We need to deal with it.”
Erik Spoelstra gave his team off Wednesday. Miami will practice Thursday before it plays host to Minnesota on Friday.
THIS AND THAT
Tim Hardaway Jr. hit 10 three-pointers in Dallas’ 127-113 dismantling of the Heat on Tuesday at AmericanAirlines Arena. Hardaway, who scored 36, became the third player to hit at least 10 threes against the Heat, joining J.R. Smith and Paul George.
“They picked us apart,” Ariza said.
Dragic bemoaned being “constantly late in our rotations.”
▪ Hardaway said it was “special” to play on the court below his father’s retired Heat jersey: “I know it’s there forever. It’s an honor and privilege to play under that jersey up there in the rafters.”
▪ Heat center Dewayne Dedmon is averaging 16.1 rebounds per 36 minutes in his 11 games. That’s fourth in the NBA (minimum 10 games), behind Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond and Alize Johnson. Conversely, Bam Adebayo is averaging 9.8 rebounds per 36 minutes.
