Looking to win big money on the Kentucky Derby? Here are the best long shots to consider.
Last year, the Kentucky Derby was the scene of a shocker — an 80-1 upset in the form of surprise winner Rich Strike.
Could lightning strike twice?
Probably not. While the sight of long shots wearing the roses has become more common over the past 20 years or so — Mine That Bird, Country House and Giacomo all pulled similar upsets — the truth remains that the Derby winner is typically one with much shorter odds.
But even if one of the top choices hits the finish line first Saturday at Churchill Downs, that doesn’t mean you can’t cash in on some major Derby winnings.
All it takes is one bomber in the trifecta to put up big numbers on the tote board, and that’s happened more often than not in recent years. Each of the past four Derbys has featured a horse with odds of longer than 25-1 in the top three. Twelve of the past 15 runnings of the race have included enough big prices to result in trifecta payouts of more than $1,000 on a $1 bet.
So, even if you like Angel of Empire or Tapit Trice at the top of your ticket, don’t fret. There’s still a good chance that some serious money can be made this weekend.
The key, of course, is finding the correct long shot to include in your exotic wagers.
Which of those horses should you pick? And who should you avoid?
Here’s a look at five Derby contenders with morning-line odds of 20-1 or longer that warrant a close look when planning out your bets Saturday.
4. Confidence Game (20-1)
One of the biggest unknowns going into the big race, Confidence Game hasn’t competed on the track in 10 weeks — a staggering layoff for a Kentucky Derby starter. In fact, it would be the longest break for any Derby winner in modern history, if he can pull the upset. It’s unlikely that he’ll hit the wire first Saturday, but there’s enough mystery — and talent — here to warrant consideration for your trifecta bets.
Last time out, Confidence Game put in an impressive rally to win the Rebel Stakes with a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. That was the best of his career by a good margin — the tops previously was an 83 in November — and it was also his first start on a sloppy track. Was the Rebel a result of the off surface or an indication that Confidence Game was making major strides as a racehorse? That’s one question. How he comes back from that 10-week layoff is another, but trainer Keith Desormeaux has been adamant that the break should be a help — not a hindrance — to his colt’s chances.
It’s worth noting that the son of Candy Ride has impressed onlookers at Churchill Downs over the past few weeks. And his final timed workout last week was a doozy: 5 furlongs in :59 flat, the fastest of 54 works at the distance that day and enough to generate even more buzz around him.
It certainly looks like he’ll be raring to go Saturday evening.
7. Reincarnate (50-1)
Of the five 50-1 shots in this 20-horse field, Reincarnate is the most intriguing.
The only contender this year formerly trained by suspended Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, he was switched to the barn of Tim Yakteen in February in order to accrue Derby qualifying points. The results have been less than stellar. First, a third-place finish in the aforementioned Rebel Stakes. Then, a third-place finish at 3-1 odds in the Arkansas Derby.
Perhaps some excuses are warranted for those two races. The Rebel — over that sloppy Oaklawn Park track — was his first race outside of sunny California. And he didn’t look all that bad in the Arkansas Derby; he was just simply no match for Angel of Empire, who turned in one of the most impressive performances of the entire spring that day, beating Reincarnate by 4¾ lengths at the end.
What makes this horse so interesting is the fact that three-time Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez will be aboard, coupled with the fact that Reincarnate has typically shown a preference for racing on the lead. He wasn’t quick enough out of the gate to get there in the Rebel Stakes, and Velazquez kept him just off the pacesetter in the Arkansas Derby.
In a Kentucky Derby seemingly lacking early speed, it will be worth watching what Reincarnate does out of the gate. Velazquez unexpectedly wired the Derby field with 12-1 shot Medina Spirit two years ago, and though that horse was later DQ’d, it’s a strategy that could fit again this weekend.
This isn’t a prediction that Reincarnate will be able to achieve the same on-track result. He’s 50-1 for a reason. But if Velazquez can get him in a good position early — perhaps even go straight for the lead — he might just have enough to hang on in the stretch.
Fun fact here: His sire is 2018 Derby runner-up Good Magic, and his damsire is Scat Daddy, the father of Justify, who won that same 2018 Derby before capturing the Triple Crown.
11. Disarm (30-1)
A year ago, Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen looked like he was finally going to get his Kentucky Derby victory with favorite Epicenter, who looked like the winner in the Churchill Downs stretch before Rich Strike came flying out of nowhere to pull the upset. As a result, Asmussen now has 24 Derby starters to his name without a win — most in history.
Asmussen is back this year with Disarm, who has the same owner (Winchell Thoroughbreds) and jockey (Joel Rosario) as Epicenter did last year. Disarm’s résumé doesn’t jump off the page. He has just one win in five starts. He finished second to Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby — his stakes debut in March — before wheeling back after three weeks to run third in the Lexington Stakes, a last-ditch-and-successful bid to accrue enough qualifying points to make the Kentucky Derby field.
His Louisiana Derby effort was better than it looks. No one was catching Kingsbarns, who got loose on the lead, ran slow fractions and never looked back. Disarm did well to hold on for second and was still running at the end of the 1 3/16-mile race. The Lexington Stakes wasn’t exactly encouraging, but his connections did what was needed to get here, and there seems to be plenty left in the tank for Saturday’s race. Disarm put in a bullet workout just nine days later at Churchill Downs.
A son of Horse of the Year Gun Runner (also trained by Asmussen and owned by Winchell) with Tapit for his damsire, Disarm should be fine with the Derby distance this weekend. He’ll need to take a step forward to hit the board, but he’s one who’s worth taking a shot on.
18. Rocket Can (30-1)
The impressive winner of the Holy Bull Stakes to begin his 3-year-old campaign, Rocket Can ran into the reigning champ next time out — losing by 4 ½ lengths to Kentucky Derby favorite Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. (Forte was scratched from the Derby on Saturday morning.) Instead of a rematch, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott sent Rocket Can to Oaklawn Park, where he ran into another formidable foe, Angel of Empire, who turned in a career-best effort and beat the gray colt by nearly 5 lengths in the Arkansas Derby.
Rocket Can finished fourth that day, but he looked fine doing it and was simply no match for the winner, who is now the third choice on the Derby morning line. His return to the track after that race resulted in a bullet workout at Churchill Downs, and he’s been looking good there ever since, continuing to impress with his training in the days leading up to this weekend’s Derby.
Mott is also adding blinkers to the 30-1 shot for Saturday’s race.
“Visually, for me, they appear to be helping,” he said. “We had worked him before in blinkers and we had thought that they didn’t make an extreme amount of difference. But if they help just a little bit, that’s what you need.”
Rocket Can is a son of reigning and four-time leading sire Into Mischief, and his damsire is three-time leading sire Tapit. The long shot also broke his maiden on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last fall before finishing a close second to Confidence Game there a few weeks later.
22. Mandarin Hero (20-1)
It’s not often that one of the “also-eligibles” for the Derby draws into the race and actually causes a stir among handicappers. Yes, Rich Strike was in the same boat last year — only getting into the race after a late scratch — but his 80-1 post-time odds tell the story of what bettors thought of him at the time. Mandarin Hero will be a different situation.
This Japanese colt — now in the field following the Thursday scratch of Wood Memorial winner Lord Miles — won all four races in his home country at 2 years old before getting beat by a neck in a stakes race in his 2023 debut in February. That showing was enough to convince his connections to take a shot at the Kentucky Derby trail, and the son of Shanghai Bobby — a former 2-year-old champion in America — was sent to the Santa Anita Derby, where he unleashed a furious rally in the stretch and almost knocked off favorite Practical Move, coming up just a nose short at the wire.
Mandarin Hero earned a 100 Beyer for that run, and that represents the fastest number on dirt of any horse in the Derby field. Fellow Japanese contender Derma Sotogake was more highly regarded back home — and Derma did defeat the horse that ultimately ended Mandarin Hero’s perfect record in February by more than four lengths a couple of months earlier — but Mandarin Hero has already proven he can make the trip across the ocean and turn in a big race in America. That’s still a question mark for Derma Sotogake, with both colts now looking to become the first Japanese contender to finish in the money on Derby Day.
Even a mere repeat of his performance last month at Santa Anita would likely put Mandarin Hero right in the thick of things in the final moments of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. A step forward from that showing might be enough to make history.
Other Derby long shots
Six other horses in the 2023 Kentucky Derby field have odds of 30-1 or longer on the morning line. Here’s a quick look at each of those contenders:
1. Hit Show (30-1): The barely beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial has improved his Beyer Speed Figures over all five career starts: 60-71-82-91-93, and he had to overcome an unfortunate wide post in his last race. He’d be more intriguing if he weren’t in that No. 1 post, which remains a sub-optimal spot even with the new Derby starting gate that was recently introduced to level the playing field for those on the extreme inside.
12. Jace’s Road (50-1): One of the likeliest contenders for the early lead in Saturday’s race, he’s shown little to indicate he’s capable of holding on out front for 1 ¼ miles. Now that Continuar has been scratched, he should probably be the longest shot in this field.
13. Sun Thunder (50-1): Trained by Lexington’s Kenny McPeek, this son of Into Mischief always seems to be running at the end, and that’s one plus when trying to find a long shot to hit the Derby board. But the results just haven’t been there, and he’s lost to a total of six different horses he’ll see Saturday over his past three races.
16. Raise Cain (50-1): If the skies open up and it rains Saturday, take a closer look. He romped in the mud to win the Gotham Stakes in March, but that was a one-turn race against a less-than-stellar field. He faces a much tougher task here.
21. Cyclone Mischief (30-1): Drew into the race when Practical Move was scratched, and while he’s not the worst pick in this section, he hasn’t shown much to think he’ll be a factor. Finished third behind Forte in his last two starts and was seventh behind Rocket Can before that. His last start (the Florida Derby) was probably his best effort — getting a 91 Beyer with a wide trip that day. He does add four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who was originally slated to ride Forte.
23. King Russell (50-1): Another late entry following the scratch of Continuar on Thursday night, King Russell has just one win in six starts, and his career-best Beyer of 89 is the lowest in this field, but don’t completely dismiss him. His move from the back of the pack to finish second behind Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby last time out indicates he might be able to pick off some horses in the stretch Saturday. Enough to hit the board? It’s not out of the question.
Note: Skinner (20-1) was originally included among the best long shots to bet here, but he was scratched from the Derby on Friday morning due to an elevated temperature.
Kentucky Derby betting note
It’s important to note while piecing together your trifecta tickets (and other exotic bets) that the odds you see Saturday are for the win pool only. And there are different pools for the exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagering. So, for example, two horses with odds of 20-1 on the board wouldn’t necessarily lead to the same payouts if they finished, say, third in a trifecta wager.
But, the win odds do offer a decent snapshot of a horse’s popularity across other wagers.
It’s also worth following the live odds throughout the day. They will change, and some will change quite drastically.
Two horses to watch that had morning-line odds too short for this list are Kingsbarns (12-1) and Mage (15-1) — both colts with just three career starts who didn’t race at 2 years old.
Kingsbarns, in particular, has a running style that should fit well in the Kentucky Derby, and he’s worth a look for a win bet at 12-1 or longer (and a good play in all the exotics). Mage has appeared to be a little greener in his starts, but there’s a ton of talent there, and he’s also worthy of consideration at the betting window.
Recent history says a long shot will hit the board Saturday evening. Good luck on picking the right one.
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