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The Loop Fantasy Football Preview: Our non-favorites for 2022

kevin cusick, pioneer press
·6 min read
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It’s hard to knock Cooper Kupp, the possession receiver-turned superstar who almost single-handedly lifted the Los Angeles Rams to a Super Bowl championship in February.

Few receivers in NFL history have ever posted numbers like the former Eastern Washington standout did last season. Sixteen touchdown catches, with 145 catches for nearly 2,000 yards.

Gaudy stats, for sure, which is why Kupp has risen from the middle of the receiving pack to be the No. 1 pass catcher on fantasy draft boards, even going first in some PPR leagues (point per reception).

Had you tried to predict this last summer, though, you’d be laughed out of your draft room. That’s because Kupp had never before topped 94 catches, or even reached 1,200 yards. And he had only ONE season where he topped six touchdowns.

Which Cooper Kupp will show up this season? We’re guessing the less-than-All-World guy he was before his breakout year. Might even be surpassed by the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson or the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase.

Two big reasons for our slightly less rosy outlook: One, quarterback Matthew Stafford is dealing with elbow pain this summer. Never a good sign. He’ll fall short of the 4,886 yards he threw for last season, and that will put a damper on Kupp’s numbers.

Reason two is the arrival of Allen Robinson III after a hugely disappointing season in Chicago. Just one TD catch. We’re guessing he bounces back with defenses focusing on Kupp.

Kupp isn’t the only star who will fall short of the loftiest preseason projections:

OVERRATED RUNNING BACKS
Najee Harris (Steelers) — The ex-Alabama star was the unquestioned top rookie runner last season with more than 1,600 total yards and 10 TDs. But that was with an offense with a veteran QB (Ben Roethlisberger). With either rookie Kenny Pickett or retread Mitchell Trubisky at the helm this year, defenses will be cheating to stop the run. That will diminish Harris from a first-round no-brainer into a second-round talent.

Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers) — Despite the influence of his quarterback Tom Brady, Fournette mixed in remarkably few salads during the offseason. Showed up at camp, shall we say, larger than life. So we’d be hesitant to grab him until at least the third round despite his 2021 revival with nearly 1,300 total yards and 10 touchdowns.

Antonio Gibson (Commanders) — The Washington incumbent may not even make it to the start of the season as the No. 1 He’s likely to be surpassed by Alabama rookie Brian Robinson, a third-round pick who the Commanders’ brass have raved about. Ball security will be key for coach Ron Rivera. Gibson has a knack for fumbling. Robinson does not.

Alvin Kamara (Saints) — We’re not a big fan of drafting players with criminal cases hanging over their head, even if they’re former first-round standouts. While Kamara’s likely to avoid a trial, or suspension, for the rest of 2022, he’s still not a safe early choice. He managed only four TDs last year, and he’s still suffering from Drew Brees withdrawal. He doesn’t have quite the connection with successor Jameis Winston.

Travis Etienne (Jaguars) — He was great at Clemson, and he’s pairing up with his college teammate Trevor Lawrence. While Etienne looks healthy again after missing all of last season, he’s likely to share the workload with Jacksonville holdover James Robinson. Because of the latter’s likelihood of getting a lot of goal-line chances, Etienne is overpriced, going in the fifth round of many drafts.

OVERRATED RECEIVERS
Amari Cooper (Browns) — One of the biggest football casualties of the Deshaun Watson fiasco in Cleveland is the star receiver who came over from Dallas to be his No. 1 target. Cooper has been plummeting down draft boards since Watson’s suspension was upped to 11 games, which means Cooper will spend the majority of his season in Jacoby Brissett Hell. T’will be a long autumn along Lake Erie.

D.K. Metcalf (Seahawks) – Speaking of quarterbacking nightmares, the exit of Russell Wilson has left a gaping hole in Seattle. Drew Lock? Geno Smith? Are you kidding? Metcalf is still very talented and was fourth in the league with 12 TD catches last season. So someone in your league who doesn’t have good Internet access is likely to draft him way, way too soon.

Tyler Lockett (Seahawks) — Speaking of once-draftable Seahawks, Lockett has always been very inconsistent. But he’s always good for a couple of two- or three-touchdown games per year. He’s more likely this year to have two- or three-reception games until Seattle finds an adequate quarterback, probably in next year’s draft.

Allen Lazard (Packers) — Aaron Rodgers called him a “hall of famer” last month, and you KNOW the Packers’ QB is full of it. While many expect Lazard to be the new No. 1 with Davante Adams off in Las Vegas, that does not mean he will post anywhere near Adams’ numbers. We’d rather pass on Lazard and take a shot later on rookies Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson.

Marquise Brown (Cardinals) — The former Oklahoma wideout is reuniting with his Sooners quarterback in Arizona, and many are expecting his numbers to blossom. But Brown is being taken too early for a guy who has not scored a touchdown since October 24. Hollywood could have his breakout season, sure. But there are safer bets you can grab in the fifth round.

OVERRATED QUARTERBACKS
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) — It’s probably not a good sign when your team insists on you doing four hours of “independent study” per week so that you actually know what’s in the playbook. Or that your top receiver (DeAndre Hopkins) is suspended for the first six games. Murray managed multiple TD passes in just two of his last eight games, which means there are at least eight quarterbacks who are safer bets this season.

Justin Herbert (Chargers) — The third-year Pro Bowler is coming off his first 5,000-yard season, with 38 TD passes. Nice. But not nice enough to be drafted ahead of several quarterbacks who are MUCH more likely to score rushing touchdowns. He’ll likely run even less now as the Chargers protect their investment in him, so that should push him below Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts on your draft board.

OTHER NON-FAVES
Trey Lance (49ers QB), Cam Akers (Rams RB), Matthew Stafford (Rams QB), Mark Andrews (Ravens TE), Pat Freiermuth (Steelers TE)

NEXT WEEK
The spirit of Nipsey Russell will be with us all on Sept. 4 when we present the “Match Game” legend-inspired NFL preview. There’ll be plenty of rhyme and reason for all.

You can hear Kevin Cusick on Wednesdays on Bob Sansevere’s “BS Show” podcast on iTunes. You can follow Kevin on Twitter — @theloopnow. He can be reached at kcusick@pioneerpress.com.

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