The Loop NFL Picks: Week 1

Packers at Vikings (+2½):
It’s a huge NFC Central opener between two of the NFL’s most famously unvaccinated quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins. While there will be more than 66,000 people in attendance at U.S. Bank Stadium, the Packers’ QB is certain, as always, that he’ll be the smartest person in the room.
Pick: Packers by 3

Buccaneers at Cowboys (+2½):
Seven-time Super Bowl champ Tom Brady is back from his brief retirement to start his 22nd season opener. The Buccaneers’ veteran quarterback’s return has been greeted warmly by the millions of Tampa-area fans to whom he is not currently married.
Pick: Buccaneers by 3

Broncos at Seahawks (+4½):
New Denver QB Russell Wilson should be fired up after getting a new $245 million deal from the Broncos. It’s pretty surprising in that most NFL observers believe it’s Wilson who should be paying big bucks for the privilege of getting out of Seattle.
Pick: Broncos by 8

Browns at Panthers (+1½):
Former Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, showing unusual modesty, denied a report that he planned to “(expletive) them up” in the reunion with his old team in Charlotte. The former Heisman Trophy winner has landed in Carolina, mostly because Cleveland preferred a quarterback with much more flexible massage policies.
Pick: Panthers by 7

Chiefs at Cardinals (+2½):
Arizona opens up the season with a huge game against the perennial AFC Super Bowl contenders. Kyler Murray is so committed to playing well in his matchup against former Most Valuable Player Patrick Mahomes that he’s expected to spend several minutes studying the Cardinals’ playbook.
Pick: Chiefs by 3

Eagles at Lions (+4½):
Dan Campbell’s Lions should get a rousing home welcome after their star turn on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” this summer. This could be the start of a magical time in the Motor City, and it may be several weeks before Detroit fans are reminded that the Lions still suck.
Pick: Lions by 3

Patriots at Dolphins (-2½):
Bill Belichick says it’s a “combination of factors,” not just the tropical heat, that led him to take his Patriots down to South Florida five days early. This big opening matchup between AFC East contenders could be tough for Belichick, who has lost many times in Miami with much more talented teams.
Pick: Dolphins by 3

49ers at Bears (+6½):
San Francisco sophomore quarterback Trey Lance reportedly was “a little annoyed” that Jimmy Garoppolo wound up staying with the 49ers. He’ll be even more perturbed, some time in the next month or so, the first time he gets replaced mid-game by the veteran QB.
Pick: 49ers by 3

Steelers at Bengals (-6½):
Cincinnati should be thrilled to begin defense of its AFC championship against a team led by Mitchell Trubisky. It’s the same kind of thrill folks used to get when they saw they were starting their season against the Bengals.
Pick: Bengals by 3

Jaguars at Commanders (-3½):
It’s a whole new opening weekend for the new look Jaguars Nation. While Jacksonville’s new crew will be battling in its Washington opener, former coach Urban Meyer will be up north in some Columbus sports bar, camped out on a bar stool and scouting co-eds.
Pick: Jaguars by 3

Ravens at Jets (+5½):
Super Bowl XLVII hero Joe Flacco is back on the field and starting against his old team. His appearance will be noted by the tiny fraction of Baltimore fans who remember that he once played for the Ravens.
Pick: Ravens by 11

OTHER GAMES
Colts at Texans (+8½):
Pick: Colts by 7

Saints at Falcons (+5½):
Pick: Saints by 7

Raiders at Chargers (-3½):
Pick: Chargers by 3

Giants at Titans (-6½):
Pick: Titans by 7

RECORD
Last season
186-98-1 straight up (.653)
153-130-2 vs. spread (.541)
All-time (2003-22)
3271-1814-11 straight up (.643)
2485-2467-144 vs. spread (.502)

Point spreads through Thursday. You can hear Kevin Cusick on Wednesdays on Bob Sansevere’s “BS Show” podcast on iTunes. You can follow Kevin on Twitter — @theloopnow. He can be reached at kcusick@pioneerpress.com.

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