Los Angeles voters to narrow mayoral field under shadow of homeless crisis

Voters in Los Angeles are likely to choose a first-time candidate running as a political outsider and a long-time Democratic Party stalwart as the two candidates to advance beyond Tuesday’s primary election, after months of debate and finger-pointing over who can best handle an exploding homelessness crisis that has taken over America’s second-largest city.

The two leading contenders have both pledged aggressive new plans to tackle the pressing issues facing the city, including a growing number of homeless encampments that dot Angeleno parks, sidewalks and even traffic medians, and a wave of drug, property and violent crime.

“We’ve got to get a handle on crime in this city,” Rick Caruso, the billionaire developer who entered the race in February, said on a recent public affairs show. “The city is dirty. It reads dirty, it feels dirty, it is dirty.”

Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) appeared on the same show detailing her own plans last week alongside Martha Fudge, the secretary of Housing and Urban Development and, like Bass, a former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus.

“There’s no question that the issue of homelessness is really at the top of people’s minds, and it’s not just white Republicans who live in the San Fernando Valley,” said Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist in Los Angeles who has worked on past mayoral campaigns. “You just can’t go anywhere in L.A. without seeing these big, ugly, dirty tent encampments. They’ve taken over underpasses, they’ve taken over sidewalks, they’ve taken over parks, they’ve taken over median strips.”

A survey conducted last week by the University of California-Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found 45 percent of Los Angeles voters calling homelessness one of the most important issues facing the city. Another 34 percent cited crime and public safety, and 26 percent said housing affordability. Among voters most likely to cast a ballot, homelessness and crime were even more likely to be top priorities.

That survey put Bass and Caruso well ahead of the rest of the field. Among likely voters, 38 percent said they would vote for Bass, and 32 percent said they backed Caruso. City councilman Kevin de Leon (D), a former president of the state Senate, finished a distant third at just 6 percent, while 15 percent said they were undecided.

Running any city is a mammoth challenge in the best of times, but Los Angeles has been uniquely unsettled in recent years, made even worse by the coronavirus pandemic.

The current mayor, Eric Garcetti, has been in limbo for months after his nomination to be ambassador to India came under fire when senators evaluating him began investigating what he knew about alleged sexual harassment by a top adviser. Garcetti’s own initiatives to tackle homelessness have achieved little progress.

“L.A. has been a battleground of Democratic priorities gone astray. Even though it’s a progressive and liberal base, when the rubber meets the road you’re not seeing these policies or this type of governance actually have a real effect in people’s daily lives,” said Anthony Reyes, a former adviser to de Leon who is not working on the race. “Even amongst liberal progressive voters who feel like things haven’t been working out, they are open to a more moderate centrist candidate who might approach things differently.”

The sense of an ungovernable city, some observers said, had opened the door to a candidate like Caruso, a wealthy mall developer who has spent more than $34 million of his own money to introduce himself to voters in a seemingly endless string of campaign commercials.

“You can’t watch half an hour of TV here in L.A. without seeing three of his ads,” South said.

Caruso has already begun running negative advertisements against Bass, previewing the showdown likely to come over the next five months. Bass is airing her own ads calling out Caruso’s past as a registered Republican, in a city where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by a 5 to 1 margin.

Caruso is “taking a page straight from the [former President] Trump playbook, running false, ugly ads against Karen Bass, blowing that right-wing dog whistle,” one of Bass’s recent ads says.

Much of the political establishment has lined up behind Bass. She has won support from ten California members of Congress, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a close ally, along with Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D). In a recent campaign swing, Bass appeared with Antonio Villaraigosa, Garcetti’s immediate predecessor.

“The people of this city want a leader that brings us together, that’s willing to challenge the entire city to make the investments that we need to grow together,” Villaraigosa told a television reporter. “L.A. is not for sale.”

Caruso has support from celebrities like Snoop Dog, Kim Kardashian and Maria Shriver, as well as the last wealthy businessman to hold the mayor’s office, Richard Riordan (R). Last week, Elon Musk tweeted his endorsement.

Caruso has also enlisted the help of a prominent San Francisco-area political consulting firm that counts among its other clients Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), Sen. Alex Padilla (D) and Vice President Harris.

Even in a year when Democrats face headwinds nationally, Caruso may face skepticism from voters who are leery about his partisan affiliation. There are nearly 1 million more registered Democrats in Los Angeles than registered Republicans, and this year’s election marks the first time Los Angeles will choose a mayor on the same ballot on which they choose federal candidates, after the city altered its election dates to conform to midterm election contests.

If that alignment puts Angelenos in a partisan mood this fall, Bass is expected to continue equating Caruso with every unpopular Republican around — including Trump.

“People just don’t consider Republicans a viable alternative,” South said. “In a general election, in a two-way race against a legitimate Democrat, I just don’t think he gets away with it.”

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