Louisiana football vs. Troy: Score prediction, scouting report
For just the second time in the last five seasons, Louisiana is a home underdog.
Troy (6-2, 4-1) rolls into Cajun Field on Saturday (4 p.m., ESPN+) on a five-game win streak and leading the Sun Belt Conference West Division, where UL has spent much of the last five years.
It's been a topsy-turvy season for the Ragin' Cajuns (4-4, 2-3), who have lost games at Rice and Louisiana-Monroe but won in a really tough environment at Marshall. Quarterbacks Chandler Fields and Ben Wooldridge have rotated in and out of games, before Fields went down a few weeks ago with an injury and Wooldridge became "exceptional" to earn full-time playing duties.
Wooldridge will need another exceptional performance against Troy's defense that allows just 17.6 points per game, tied for 16th best in FBS.
NO ROTATING QBSDespite healthy quarterback room, Louisiana football won't plan to rotate QBs vs. Troy
NO UNDERDOG MENTALITYAs rare home underdog, it's 'business as usual' for Louisiana football against Troy
HOW UL MELTED DOWN AT USMLouisiana football lost at Southern Miss due to what it usually does best: turnovers
First to 20 points wins?
While the Trojans give up 17 points a game, Louisiana's defense is just as good as opponents manage 21.5 points per game.
As effective as both teams' defenses have been at not giving up the big play, i.e. Troy, or creating a monsoon of turnovers, i.e. the Cajuns, their respective offenses have been anemic through the first two months of the season.
Against the best defenses in the Sun Belt they've faced so far, South Alabama and Marshall, UL has put up 17 and 23 points, respectively. Expect that kind of a slugfest between Louisiana and the Trojans Saturday.
Where will the points come from?
The biggest key for UL's offense going up against Troy's defense will be to finish drives with points. Doesn't matter if it is 6 points of 3, the Ragin' Cajuns must take points any time they can Saturday.
Offenses have been able to move the ball against the Trojans. It's not like they are an immovable object as opponents have tacked off 329 yards per game. And Troy allows teams to convert 42% of their third downs. The difference has been the lack of ability to finish drives.
Finishing has been a bit of a bugaboo for Louisiana this season. But with the reemergence of Kenneth Almendares at place kicker and his knack for making 50-plus yard field goals, the Cajuns could have an ace in their pocket.
Win the turnover margin
After the early gut-punch in the 39-24 loss at Southern Miss last week, this should go without saying: UL must take care of the football and win the turnover battle against the Trojans.
Cajuns coughed it up four times at The Rock and the 17 points USM converted those into ended up as the difference in the game.
Troy quarterback Gunnar Watson has been known to throw some interceptions with 10 on the season, so there should be opportunities for senior safety Bralen Trahan, who has a team-leading three picks, and UL defenders on the backend to force some mistakes out of the Trojans' offense.
Sun Belt Conference West division race
A win for the Trojans would all but wrap up the division, with wins over the second, third and fourth best teams. Their last two league games are home against ULM (Nov. 19) and at Arkansas State (Nov. 26), the bottom feeders in the West.
Cajuns desperately need a victory to remain the hunt. A loss would officially eliminate them from SBC West contention and would snap its streak of division championships at four.
Score prediction
Troy 20 Louisiana 13: The Trojans get to that magical 20 number as its defense suffocates Louisiana's offense while their offense makes just plays to pull this one out. The Ragin' Cajuns are officially booted from the divisional title race.
Cory Diaz covers the LSU Tigers and Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns for The Daily Advertiser as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his Tigers and Cajuns coverage on Twitter: @ByCoryDiaz. Got questions regarding LSU/UL athletics? Send them to Cory Diaz at bdiaz@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: Louisiana football vs. Troy: Score prediction, scouting report
