Louisville basketball seeks more from Hercy Miller. Will pairing with El Ellis unlock it?

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It takes more than an issue or two to get to 0-7.

The Louisville men’s basketball team isn’t winless entering Sunday’s ACC opener against Miami (7-1) because of one player or a couple of coaching decisions. No lone lineup or singular substitution has caused the Cardinals to lose their past four games by 19 or more points.

And there’s no quick fix for it.

But Kenny Payne has to try something.

And lately, the Cards’ first-year coach has been attempting to attack one of his team’s most flagrant flows — its disastrous turnover problem — with a new solution.

One point guard isn’t cutting it. So why not try two?

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To that end, Payne is trying out lineups with starting point guard El Ellis and backup Hercy Miller on the court together.

“If Hercy Miller can get a little bit more solid — he's heading in the right direction — it takes a lot of pressure off El Ellis,” Payne said. “A lot. And it makes us a better team. I don't need (Miller) to be great. I don't need him to think 'I got to do this, and I got to get this shot and I got to score for us. I got to make this layup.’ I just need him to be solid. If he can be solid for us, it changes the dynamics of this team.”

U of L's Hercy Miller (15) drove against Appalachian State's Xavion Brown during their game at the Yum Center in Louisville, Ky. on Nov. 15, 2022.  The Cardinals lost 61-60.
U of L's Hercy Miller (15) drove against Appalachian State's Xavion Brown during their game at the Yum Center in Louisville, Ky. on Nov. 15, 2022. The Cardinals lost 61-60.

The dynamics need changing.

And playmaking is as good a spot as any to start.

The Cardinals rank last in Division I basketball in assist-to-turnover ratio at less than half an assist per turnover. They end nearly a quarter of their possessions (24.4%) with a turnover, worse than any other power-conference school.

Opponents score an average of 20 points per game off U of L turnovers.

And though the sample size on Ellis-Miller lineups is small, the data suggests at least some improvement.

According to CBBAnalytics.com, Louisville is committing turnovers on 20.7% of its possessions in the 44 minutes this season that Ellis and Miller have been on the court together. Not great, but better than the rate when when Ellis plays without Miller (23.5%).

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And there’s more statistical evidence to imply that the Cards have been better when Miller plays alongside Ellis.

The team’s effective field-goal percentage — a number that takes into account the added value of a 3-point shot compared to a two — jumps from 43.3% when Ellis plays without Miller to 50.9% when they play together.

And Louisville, which is being outscored this season by 22.2 points per 100 possessions, is outscoring its opponents by 2.7 points per 100 in the minutes when Ellis and Miller share the floor.

It’s 44 minutes. Hardly enough to justify a starting lineup change.

But it’s not hard to see why Payne is investigating it.

The 6-foot-3 Ellis is Louisville’s best option to run the offense. But he’s also the Cards’ most gifted scorer and natural freelancer.

When a play breaks down, he can make something happen. He doesn’t always make the best decision, but he can get into the middle of a defense to attack the rim or create space on the perimeter for a jump shot.

U of L’s El Ellis (3) drives againstt Maryland’s Jahmir Young (1) during their game at the Yum Center in Louisville, Ky. on Nov. 29, 2022.
U of L’s El Ellis (3) drives againstt Maryland’s Jahmir Young (1) during their game at the Yum Center in Louisville, Ky. on Nov. 29, 2022.

Miller isn’t nearly as dynamic a threat, and the walk-on wasn’t expected to play a major role this season after transferring from Tennessee State.

But he’s no stranger to high-level basketball, having played his senior year of high school at Minnehaha Academy in Minneapolis alongside future NBA lottery picks Jaylen Suggs and Chet Holmgren, and he arrived with a reputation as a strong on-ball defender.

“He plays hard and gives me 110%,” Payne said. "He wants to do well. He's vocal. Defensively, he's in tune. He knows he has to pressure the ball.”

On the offensive end, playing Miller at point guard frees Ellis to play off the ball. It gives him some catch-and-shoot opportunities and the chance to finish plays without the burden of starting them.

“It's something that Kenny has been doing a lot (more), often,” Miller said. “Even in practice we work together and try to just build our connection with each other. I feel like me and El together is a pretty good duo.”

The numbers hint that he might be right.

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But while Ellis can be explosive offensively, he isn’t always a steadying influence. He plays at a frenetic pace that can result in a spectacular finish around the rim or an ill-advised drive where the ball bounces loose.

Miller doesn’t offer the same potential reward. So to share the court with Ellis he also has to be lower-risk.

“The problem becomes, when things are erratic or things are in a bad way, I need (Miller) calm,” Payne said. “I need you to know that your job isn't to go out and try to get 25. You’re a good player, but your job is to steady the ship. Your job is to be on the floor and not hurt us.”

And Miller is taking steps in that direction.

If he can keep going, it could help smooth the rocky road Louisville’s offense has traveled so far.

“He's done a good job,” Payne said. “I'm so happy with him. There's more he can give us.”

Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brett Dawson at mdawson@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter at @BDawsonWrites.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Why Louisville men's basketball seeks more from walk-on Hercy Miller