Louisville vs. Kentucky basketball predictions: Will Kenny Payne win this game?

It may not have the heft of prior battles, but Saturday's clash between the Louisville Cardinals and Kentucky Wildcats men's basketball teams is still an important one.

It's Kenny Payne's first time leading his alma mater against the school he was once a coach for. It's a chance for the Wildcats, who have not been consistent at all this season, to rebound from another painful loss to a team it was expected to beat. Can Payne pull out some tricks against old boss John Calipari, or will Coach Cal show who's still the master and who's the apprentice?

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To break down the Battle of the Bluegrass, we polled Courier Journal beat reporters Brett Dawson and Ryan Black with four questions, including a prediction. Here's how they answered and what you can expect when the game tips off Saturday at noon in Rupp Arena:

Who will be the game's MVP?

Dawson: The safest bet is Cason Wallace, the Kentucky point guard who will be — by a considerable margin — the best NBA prospect on the floor. Wallace is an essential scorer for the Cats, but maybe more importantly he’s UK’s best defender, and he’ll likely spend at least part of the game on Louisville’s El Ellis.

Ellis is the critical Cardinal, the best ballhandler, playmaker and scorer on the roster. U of L’s upset odds are long, but Ellis is the Card most likely to shorten them. He might need a game like he had against Western Kentucky — 30 points, 10 assists, 4-for-7 3-point shooting — to give Louisville a chance to stay in striking distance. If Wallace can contain him — on the ball and off — any chance Louisville has of springing the upset dips dramatically.

Black: No need to overthink this one. Oscar Tshiebwe is the reigning national player of the year for a reason. Expect him to have another one of his patented double-doubles. Here's a prediction for his final line Saturday: 27 points, 22 rebounds, four assists, two blocks and a steal.

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What's one thing you are most looking forward to seeing when Kentucky basketball plays Louisville?

Dawson: In a game lacking marquee matchups, there’s fun stuff to watch in the paint.

Louisville’s surging Sydney Curry has been salvaging his season in recent games, averaging 12.8 points and 9.3 rebounds over his past four games after posting averages of 1.7 points and 3.6 boards in his first nine.

Tshiebwe and the Kentucky front line pose the biggest threat yet to Curry’s resurgence. The Louisville big man saw his effort wane in the team’s 0-9 start. He’s a few pounds down thanks to a new diet, and he’s looked more energetic of late. Curry can’t afford to take plays off against Tshiebwe, who hasn’t captured the magic of his national Player of the Year season but still is an unrelenting force on the backboards, averaging 13 a game, five at the offensive end.

Black: Brett briefly mentioned it earlier, but watching Wallace play on-ball defense is a treat. It will be fun watching his matchup with Ellis throughout Saturday's contest. Will Ellis be able to shake the talented freshman? Or can Wallace put together another stellar defensive outing, perhaps the best since his eight-steal performance against Michigan State that tied a single-game school record?

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Did Kenny Payne, in fact, win those games?

Dawson: Of course not. Even Payne doesn’t think so.

The Louisville head coach had a spectacular run of recruiting and player development in 10 seasons as John Calipari’s assistant at Kentucky, playing his part in a bunch of wins. He was crucial in expanding Anthony Davis’ offensive game, toughening up Karl-Anthony Towns and turning Nick Richards from project to post presence. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

But those guys — and Devin Booker and Julius Randle and Bam Adebayo and on and on and on — won those games. And Calipari deserves the bulk of the coaching credit. He was the recruiting closer, the guy who set starting lineups and finishing fives.

If anything, there’s a case to be made Calipari (and Payne for that matter) misses some of the X-and-O assistance that former assistant John Robic provided.

As for “Kenny Payne Won Those Games,” it’s hilarious. If you’re a Cards fan, put it on a t-shirt. Revel in the beats the Kentucky program has skipped in Payne’s absence.

Just don’t take it too seriously.

“I have heard that phrase,” Payne told The Courier Journal in May. “Don’t say I like it, but I have heard it, and it’s all in fun.”

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Black: It's funny. That's all it is.

Of course, Payne played a part in victories. Every member of a program receives at least a small piece of credit after wins. Ultimately, players deserve the majority of that praise; they're the ones out there actually making the winning plays, after all. Calipari is next in line on the credit totem pole, since he dictates who starts, who subs in and other in-game decisions.

Just because Payne is further down the list when credit is doled out doesn't mean he shouldn't be proud of everything he accomplished during his time in Lexington.

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Are you willing to call the upset? Will Louisville basketball beat Kentucky?

Dawson: Nope.

Look, all the pressure here is on Kentucky. Calipari is under fire from fans. The Cats started the season as title contenders and enter New Year’s Eve with a questionable tournament résumé. And there’s every chance UK is tight, Louisville plays loose and this thing gets interesting.

But the heat on the Cats centers on a consistent issue: An inability to beat quality opponents. Kentucky is 0-3 against Quad 1 teams in the NCAA NET rankings, according to CBBAnalytics.com, and it’s being outscored by 19.3 points per 100 possessions in those games.

Louisville, ranked No. 344 in the NET, is a Quad 4 opponent. And Kentucky has feasted on those, going 5-0 and outscoring them by 45.8 points per 100 possessions.

Let's account for rivalry intensity and assume it's a little closer than that: Kentucky 74, Louisville 59.

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Black: No sir.

Missouri winning in such lopsided fashion over Kentucky on Wednesday might have been the worst outcome possible for Louisville. UK will enter Saturday's contest irritated and ready to take out its frustration. It's not as if the Cardinals needed anything else going against them given their litany of issues this season.

Louisville will keep it within single digits at intermission before Kentucky pulls away in the second half. Kentucky 82, Louisville 64.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville vs UK basketball predictions: Score, analysis and game MVP