Love him or hate him, Ron DeSantis is Republican Party's best shot at moving past Trump

Editor's note: This is the seventh in a series of columns exploring the future of the Republican Party and the conservative movement. 

Ron DeSantis created a firestorm in September when he sent two plane loads of migrants from Texas to Martha's Vineyard, the wealthy island playground for many celebrity Democrats, including the Obamas and Clintons.

Yet that’s not all Florida's Republican governor succeeded in doing. He got the nation talking about the immigration crisis (the country in August surpassed a record 2 million undocumented migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border for fiscal year 2022).

DeSantis also got the country talking about him. He knows how to push liberals’ buttons, and his ability to dominate a news cycle and start debates is rivaled only by former President Donald Trump, who set a new standard for combative politics. DeSantis has even been described as “out-Trumping” Trump.

When DeSantis speaks, 'that becomes the conversation'

“All those people in D.C. and New York were beating their chests when Trump was president, saying they were so proud to be sanctuary jurisdictions, saying how bad it was to have a secure border,” DeSantis said during a September news conference. “The minute even a small fraction of what those border towns deal with every day is brought to their front door, they all of a sudden go berserk and they’re so upset that this is happening.”

Republican border state governors have bused thousands of migrants to northern cities, in protest of the Biden administration’s failure to address securing the border. When DeSantis flew 50 migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, however, he got outsize attention.

“What’s pretty notable about him is when he speaks, that becomes the conversation,” says Cassie Smedile, executive director of America Rising, which produces opposition research on Democrats. “He's doing that job better than virtually anyone else.”

The rise of DeSantis also helps answer the question many Americans have pondered: If not Trump as the Republican presidential nominee in 2024, then who?

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DeSantis vs. Trump

Trump has succeeded in staying in the news, but for all the wrong reasons. His legal troubles are serious and never-ending, and his obsession with the 2020 election has many conservatives searching for a new leader. While Trump’s popularity among the Republican base shouldn’t be underestimated, there seems to be an opening for someone new.

Enter DeSantis. The 44-year-old first-term governor, former congressman and Harvard Law grad has keenly picked up Trump’s traits that resonated with voters (Trump has noticed, by the way).

He has taken on the fighter persona. His staff constantly pushes back against the news media, something Trump’s supporters loved about him. DeSantis has also freely criticized the press, yet it’s unlikely you’ll hear him say the media is the “enemy of the people,” as Trump did. DeSantis avoids the bombastic rhetoric and name-calling that Trump revels in.

Many Republicans liked Trump’s policies, but weren’t thrilled with the never-ending drama of his antics on Twitter or bluster at rallies.

“Ron DeSantis comes across as a palatable version,” Smedile says. “He's willing to go to the line, he's a fighter, he's willing to get in on the issues that we want people out there talking about from the conservative perspective – without the tweets.”

And he has raised his profile without Trump by his side.

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As much as he's vilified in the mainstream media and by Democrats, DeSantis remains fairly popular in his home state. As he has advanced his national image, he has done so while focusing on Florida. Whether parental rights in education or allowing businesses and schools to reopen during COVID-19, these are issues important to his state that also resonate across the country.

A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from Florida (which is also Trump's home state) shows DeSantis is solidly up over Trump in a hypothetical presidential contest, an 8-point swing in the governor’s favor since January.

Even though DeSantis has his eye on 2024, he is still running for reelection as governor in November, and Real Clear Politics' poll average shows him leading that contest against Democrat Charlie Crist by almost 8 percentage points.

Republican base demands a fighter

One strategist I spoke with described DeSantis as custom made for this political moment, combining smart policy and conservative ideology with the swagger and style that attracted voters to Trump.

Winning in 2024 will require firing up the base and voters want a fighter, says Saul Anuzis, a Republican consultant who served as a senior adviser to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz during his 2016 presidential campaign.

“They still are very anti-swamp, anti-D.C. and anti-establishment,” Anuzis says.

Until Trump makes a decision on a 2024 run, GOP presidential hopefuls are in a difficult position. All they can do is make a name for themselves and build a following.

“I think that the DeSantises of the world, the Youngkins of the world and the Nikki Haleys of the world are doing exactly what they should be doing,” Anuzis says. “Which is find venues to support other Republicans, engage in policy debates where possible, cause controversy that appeals to the base and gives them an opportunity to tell their story and exhibit their abilities both with regard to political savviness, as well as reaching out to potential supporters who would say, if not Trump, then who?”

Governors make good presidential candidates

DeSantis has risen in notoriety this year for his culture war fights, but his record as governor extends far beyond that.

During his tenure, he has cut taxes, expanded school choice and ensured some of the least intrusive COVID-19 lockdowns in the country.

He has even championed the preservation of the Everglades, a fact that earned him the endorsement of the Everglades Trust.

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There are good reasons Florida is one of the fastest growing states, even as other states lose residents, and DeSantis can hold that up as a success.

“I  think the advantage governors have when they get into these presidential races is that they've got, for better or worse, records that they can point to,” says John Engler, former three-term Republican governor of Michigan.

“A Reagan, a Bush, a Clinton, they all had things they could point to plus they had a well of experience to draw from. They knew the problems with the welfare system and they knew there were challenges in the education system and they knew that often Washington was overreaching in terms of its regulatory reach, and they had a pretty firm grasp on public safety.”

Too anti-woke?

There is much that DeSantis has done right. Yet, in his desire to raise his profile, he should be careful not to push culture war issues too far.

For instance, the Stop WOKE Act he signed this year is designed to fight political correctness and an obsession with race at schools and private companies. The law has already faced a partial injunction and a lawsuit from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, which stands for free speech and free thought.

Conservatives have long been defenders of the First Amendment, so it’s uncomfortable to see a Republican involve the government in such a broad, heavy-handed way.

Despite these concerns, the consensus among the GOP operatives I spoke with is that DeSantis is doing what he must in this moment.

“If you go through the most newly elected members of Congress, the Senate or governors across the states, many of them are kind of in a MAGA-lite perspective of coming in as fighters, people willing to take on the establishment, challenge the status quo, do something different,” Anuzis says.

As conservatives mull whom to support if Trump doesn’t run – or even if he does – the  choice is increasingly the Florida governor.

Ingrid Jacques is a columnist at USA TODAY. Contact her at ijacques@usatoday.com or on Twitter: @Ingrid_Jacques 

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump vs DeSantis 2024? Florida governor vies to lead Republican Party