Low projected turnout for runoff election makes inspiring voters vital, officials say

Jun. 5—Turnout for the June 21 runoff elections is expected to be lower than for last month's primaries, and officials say that'll make it even more important for candidates to motivate supporters to vote.

Morgan County Probate Judge Greg Cain predicts voter turnout in the county will be between 15% and 18%. It was 25% for last month's primary election. He said inspiring people to come out and vote will be a decisive factor in the runoff.

"In reality, it's just which candidate can get their people to the polls and vote," Cain said. "Usually in a runoff election, what you'll see is the person most successful in getting their supporters back out to the polls are the ones who are going to win the runoff."

In the most high-profile runoff, Katie Britt, who led U.S. Senate voting statewide in the May 24 primary, will face U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks for the Republican nomination in the race to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby.

The Democratic party also has a statewide runoff between Yolanda Flowers and Malika Fortier for its gubernatorial nomination to oppose Gov. Kay Ivey, who won the Republican nomination last month.

Cameron Mixon, spokesman for Secretary of State John Merrill, said Merrill predicts voter turnout statewide for the runoff will be between 10% and 15%. Turnout was 23% for last month's primary.

Limestone County Probate Judge Charles Woodruff said not every candidate who leads in a primary can translate that into a runoff victory.

"Having run for office in two cycles ... from what I've seen in the nine-plus years I've been here, the key to candidates being successful in a runoff is getting your people back out to vote," Woodruff said. "That's the burden and driving force of runoff elections as a candidate. Statistics show that candidates routinely do not get as many voters back out as they did in the primaries."

Alabama doesn't allow crossover voting between the primary election and runoff. That means voters who cast a ballot in the May 24 primary must vote in the same party's primary runoff June 21. Those who didn't vote in May can choose to vote in either party's runoff election.

Woodruff and Lawrence County Probate Judge Greg Dutton said they do not expect the ban on crossover voting to create confusion among voters because the guideline isn't new.

Woodruff predicts Limestone County voter turnout to be between 12% and 20%, a range he said they usually see in every runoff election. Turnout was 29% in the county last month.

"I think most of the time in a runoff, you lose some of your main core (voters)," Woodruff said. "They go vote because they feel it's their civic duty and political obligation to go, but sometimes in a runoff, it's just the people that are going to support a particular candidate and particular race. That's pretty much been our trend going back for years."

The runoff for the Republican 5th Congressional District nomination between primary front-runner Dale Strong and runner-up Casey Wardynski will be on ballots in Limestone and Morgan counties. Portions of Limestone County also will be involved in runoffs for Republican nominations in two state House races.

State House District 4, which covers portions of Morgan, Limestone and Madison counties, has a runoff between incumbent Parker Moore and challenger Patrick Johnson. State House District 2, which covers western Limestone and eastern Lauderdale counties will also involve a runoff. Jason Black and Ben Harrison were the top two finishers in unofficial results in District 2, but the state Republican Party said it had received a challenge to the results.

Dutton predicts Lawrence County's voter turnout to be between 18% and 25% and said it could possibly go higher than that because of a contested County Commission Republican nomination in District 5 between Ned Thomas Jones and Nathan Kitchens.

"I think the percentage of voters will be larger in (Lawrence) District 5 than there will be in the other four county districts," Dutton said. "I'm expecting more than the state average since we do have that local contested District 5 race."

— wesley.tomlinson@decaturdaily.com or 256-340-2438.