LSU football vs. Arkansas: Score prediction and scouting report from Golden Boot rivalry
BATON ROUGE – No. 7 LSU football is riding a high heading into its matchup against Arkansas in Fayetteville this Saturday (11 a.m., ESPN).
LSU (7-2, 5-1 SEC) is coming off an emotional win over No. 9 Alabama last weekend, defeating the Crimson Tide on a two-point conversion in overtime. Quarterback Jayden Daniels' throw to Mason Taylor sent Tiger Stadium into a frenzy, as the Tigers (No. 8 AFCA Coaches/No. 7 AP) defeated Alabama in Baton Rouge for the first time since 2010.
Arkansas (5-4, 2-3) had a very different experience last Saturday, falling to Liberty at home, 21-19.
Here's a score prediction and a closer look at Saturday's matchup, one that will determine the winner of the annual Golden Boot trophy.
How LSU's defense can use experience from Florida game for Arkansas
LSU's defense had trouble containing Florida's physical, downhill rushing attack four weeks ago. The Tigers surrendered 210 rushing yards and 6.4 yards per attempt, as the Gators had 39-yard and 81-yard touchdown runs from running back Montrell Johnson and quarterback Anthony Richardson, respectively.
That lackluster performance from LSU's run defense is relevant this week against an Arkansas offense that, like Florida, also plays with a physical running quarterback (KJ Jefferson), uses multiple running backs, plays in condensed formations, has a strong offensive line and relies on its run game more than its passing attack.
LSU's run defense has been better in recent weeks, limiting big plays and holding both Ole Miss and Alabama to under 140 yards on the ground. But LSU will need to learn from the mistakes it made against Florida four weeks ago if it wants to escape Fayetteville with a win.
Jayden Daniels, LSU's passing attack can take advantage of Arkansas secondary
Here's where the Razorbacks' pass defense ranks in the SEC in these three major statistical categories:
Opponents completion percentage allowed: 10th
Passing yards allowed per game: 13th
Passing first downs allowed per game: 11th
None of that is good. And given how much better Daniels and the Tigers' passing attack has been since the Florida game, LSU's passing attack should be a mismatch against Arkansas struggling secondary.
Since completing only 8-of-20 passes for 80 yards against Auburn, Daniels has thrown eight touchdown passes and has connected on over 71% of his throws in the four games since LSU's ugly performance in The Plains.
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Player to watch: Jadon Haselwood
Haselwood – a wide receiver and Oklahoma transfer – has had a solid year. He's second on the Razorbacks in receiving yards and first in receptions with 44 catches for 553 yards. But given how often and effectively Arkansas runs the ball, it's second in the SEC in rushing attempts per game and fifth in yards per attempt, Haselwood hasn't been the focal point of the attack despite his five-star talent.
So if LSU's defense keys in on Arkansas' rushing attack, Haselwood will have to step up into that larger role against the Tigers' secondary and provide more balance to the Razorback's offense.
Score prediction: LSU 35, Arkansas 24
This has the makings of a trap game for LSU, given the colder conditions, road environment and emotional win over Alabama last Saturday. But the Tigers are still the better team, on both sides of the ball, and should be able to throw all over the Razorback's lacking secondary.
Koki Riley covers LSU sports for The Daily Advertiser and the USA TODAY Sports South Region. Email him at kriley@theadvertiser.com and follow him on Twitter at @KokiRiley.
This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: LSU football vs. Arkansas: Score prediction, scouting report
