LSU football vs. Georgia: Prediction, scouting report from the SEC Championship Game
BATON ROUGE — No. 14 LSU football will be playing for its third SEC Championship in 11 years against No. 1 Georgia in Atlanta on Saturday (3 p.m., CBS).
The Tigers (9-3) head into the matchup as heavy underdogs following their loss to Texas A&M to close out the regular season. But if LSU (No. 13 AFCA Coaches/No. 11 AP) defeats the Bulldogs (12-0), it will become SEC champions for the 13th time in program history.
LSU's last SEC title also came over Georgia (No. 1 AFCA Coaches/No. 1 AP), as the Tigers defeated the Bulldogs 37-10 in the SEC Championship Game in 2019.
Here's a closer look at Saturday's matchup and a score prediction.
The key for LSU's defense: Forcing third and long and getting stops in the red zone
Georgia's identity has been built around its defense, but its offense has been difficult to stop. The Bulldogs have the No. 4 attack in the nation, according to ESPN's College Football Power Index.
But whenever the offense has struggled this season, it's been scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Georgia only has 43 touchdowns in 66 trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line this year (65.2% success rate). That weakness plays into a strength of LSU's defense, as the Tigers have only surrendered 17 touchdowns on 40 drives that have leaked into the red zone (42.5%).
Besides playing well inside their own 20, LSU's defense will have to force Georgia's offense into situations that allow their pass rushers to make quarterback Stetson Bennett uncomfortable. That will be getting into third and long situations, which requires LSU to be lightyears better than it was last week against the run and more aggressive in coverage on early downs.
When in third and long scenarios, the Tigers have the athletes (Harold Perkins, BJ Ojulari) to make Bennett uncomfortable. And although he is mobile, Bennett has struggled under pressure this season. He has a 40.4% completion percentage and a 51.5 NFL Passer Rating when under duress, according to Pro Football Focus.
LSU must expose Georgia's youth in the secondary
Georgia doesn't have a weakness on its defense. But if one had to be picked, it would be the Bulldogs' secondary.
Among Georgia's top six players in the secondary in terms of snap count in coverage, there's only one junior (Tykee Smith) and one senior (Christopher Smith).
The unit has played well despite its youth, but they haven't faced a receiving corps as deep and talented as LSU's this season. If Jayden Daniels is healthy and at his best, the Tigers have a path to unlock this potential matchup advantage.
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Player to watch: Ladd McConkey
On a roster flooded with former five-stars, McConkey is the rare key contributor on Georgia's roster who wasn't a splashy recruit. McConkey was a former three-star prospect and the No. 121 recruit in the state of Georgia, according to 247Sports Composite.
At wide receiver, his quickness in the slot and the multiple ways in which Georgia uses him will be a curveball for LSU's defense. Besides leading the team with 66 targets and having 46 catches for 606 yards, McConkey also has six carries for 120 yards and two touchdowns this year.
Score prediction: Georgia 35, LSU 13
There's a path for LSU's defense to hold Georgia's offense at bay long enough for its offense to pull through in the second half, similar to what the Tigers did against Alabama in November. But the Bulldogs' defense should be too good to let that happen.
Koki Riley covers LSU sports for The Daily Advertiser and the USA TODAY Sports South Region. Email him at kriley@theadvertiser.com and follow him on Twitter at @KokiRiley.
This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: LSU football score prediction, scouting report for SEC Championship
