Lula Widens Lead Over Bolsonaro Days Before Vote, Datafolha Says

(Bloomberg) -- Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly widened his lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro just three days before Brazilians cast their vote in the presidential runoff, according to a Datafolha poll.

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Lula would get 53% of valid votes, a measure that pulls out null and blank ballots, up from 52% last week. Bolsonaro would take 47%, down 1 percentage point, according to the survey published Thursday evening. Both movements fell within the poll’s 2 percentage-point margin of error.

The findings are in line with those of other major polling companies this week. They showed Bolsonaro’s momentum fizzling in the wake of campaign gaffes and incidents in the final days of the race. Campaign insiders and analysts say the episodes may have damaged the conservative president’s standing with key demographics ahead of a highly anticipated debate on Friday.

A separate survey published by AtlasIntel earlier on Thursday showed nearly identical results to Datafolha’s poll: Lula leading with 53.2% of valid votes, compared to Bolsonaro’s 46.8%.

Bolsonaro, 67, surprised pollsters with a better-than-expected showing in the first-round vote on Oct. 2. And he since launched a slew of economic measures to help close the gap behind Lula.

But a violent standoff between police and Roberto Jefferson, a onetime lawmaker and staunch supporter of the incumbent, rocked the nation and gave Lula, 77, an opening to capitalize on the Bolsonaro campaign’s blunders. The leftist leader has also tried to calm investors and Brazil’s business community on Thursday, pledging “clear and realistic” rules for fiscal policy if elected to a third term.

Read More: Lula Pledges Fiscal, Social Responsibility on Eve of Vote

The two men will square off in a final televised presidential debate on Friday before Brazilians vote on Oct. 30.

Datafolha interviewed 4,580 people across Brazil between Oct. 25 and 27. AtlasIntel interviewed 7,500 Brazilians between Oct. 21 to Oct. 25, and its poll has a margin of error of 1 percentage point.

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