MacKinnon line makes chess match impossible for Calgary

The way the Calgary Flames roared into the playoffs was stunning.

We knew they were good, but maybe not that good. They were 4-0 winners in Game 1, and honestly, the scoreline made the Avs look better than they were. Colorado couldn’t kill a penalty, couldn’t get particularly close to the net, and looked as though they had no answer for the Flames in any way.

It figured to be a quick series. But a closer look showed that what really did Colorado in at the start of this series was taking too many penalties. They didn’t play particularly well in Game 1, but it wasn’t a walkover, either. In all situations, the Flames still gave up 2.1 expected goals and generated just 2.3 of their own; not a huge difference and certainly the kind you can overcome when you have overwhelming skill.

Which the Avs do. In Games 2 through 4, that skill has been in evidence. Mikko Rantanen went off for 3-3-6, Nathan MacKinnon put together a 3-2-5 line. After that initial shutout, that line alone accounts for seven of the team’s 12 goals. Which is what anyone might have expected, given that this always struck even MacKinnon himself as something of a one-and-a-half-line team. It’s nice that Matt Nieto and JT Compher have chipped in two goals of their own, but that’s not what you go into an Avs game counting on; you just hope you can hold on until the MacKinnon and Rantanen come out again.

And while the Avs aren’t scoring a ton with the big line out there — believe me, five goals in four games from your bottom three lines isn’t going to get the job done for you — it’s worth noting that they’re also not holding on for dear life. By all-situations expected-goals percentage, only four guys — Patrik Nemeth, Ian Cole, Matt Calvert, and Nieto — are under 52 per cent, meaning the team as a whole is putting together a lot more quality looks than the Flames. And for Nieto’s part, he has those two goals to make up for his foibles, even if he’s getting a bit lucky.

Put another way, the Avs are straight-up controlling games at 5-on-5 — they have the second-best xGF% at full strength in these playoffs — and in all other situations as well. And they’re doing it not by limiting shots or chances, per se. That would have never been their forte, but in all honesty they’re fine at it. Instead, they’re just emptying the ammo depot on Mike Smith and the Calgary defence. “Just” 2.7 expected goals in Game 2 gave way to a stunning 5.5 in Game 3 and 4.5 the next time out.

Colorado has 12 goals in the last three games, and haven’t been even remotely lucky to get it. Their on-ice shooting percentage for the series is under seven, ahead of only both teams that got swept and a Nashville team going up against the goalie who finished first in save percentage in the regular season.

But remember, it wasn’t supposed to be this way. The Flames were the better, deeper team and the concern was always that goaltending would sink them. Even if you thought MacKinnon and Co. would be fine against the Flames’ shutdown group (the 3M line and the Giordano/Brodie pairing), you couldn’t have foreseen them getting over this much in Games 1 and 2, even with the consideration that they held everyone off the scoresheet the first time out.

Once the series headed back to Colorado, Jared Bednar did all he could to keep MacKinnon away from the shutdown guys, preferring to run him out against Travis Hamonic to great effect (3.57-0.6 xGF, 4-0 in actual goals). In Game 4, Bill Peters did a slightly better matchup job but MacKinnon to get Giordano and Brodie out there against him more, but if the 3Ms weren’t also out there, it got ugly in a hurry.

The other thing, obviously, is that Calgary’s high-scoring top line hasn’t really been involved in the offence at all. Matt Tkachuk leads all goal scorers with two, while the top line of Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Elias Lindholm have just two goals, one in Game 2 (Monahan) and one in Game 4 (Lindholm). Colin Wilson, Carl Soderberg, and Alex Kerfoot are doing a very good job of shutting that top line down at 5-on-5 and also creating on the counterattack, though not getting much to show for it.

And that, frankly, is all the Avs ever needed. MacKinnon and Rantanen can run wild on anybody, even one of the best lockdown quintets in the league, if you give them half a chance, and the Flames definitely have. But at the same time, the rest of the lineup seems pretty much content to limit the Flames’ transition, take away the middle of the ice, and otherwise just wait for a chance to counterattack. And they’re doing it unlike anyone has all season.

Combine that with the fact that Philipp Grubauer, who went .955 in his last 15 regular-season games, continues to be very much On One. And, since that poor showing by the whole team in Game 1, he’s .942. That’s gonna win you some games. Probably, at this point, an entire round.

But after Calgary, there’s (probably) Vegas, and well… Let’s just say you have to worry about a lot more than one or two lines and Mike Smith.

Ryan Lambert is a Yahoo! Sports hockey columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

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