Once again, Sarasota and Manatee counties “dodged a bullet” and “got really lucky” –  phrases I have heard dozens of times since Hurricane Ian passed through.

Look at the utter devastation of Fort Myers, Port Charlotte and Naples, and think Casey, Siesta, Lido, LBK and Anna Maria Island. Our beaches would be gone, the storm surge of 7-10 feet would have washed over Casey, Siesta and Lido, for sure. How much would our passes have widened or closed due to the storm surge? What would our downtowns look like after 6-12 hours of 120+ mph winds?

While we are humbled by the unspeakable tragedies to our south and our relative minimal damage, we really need to learn the lessons from Lee and Collier counties.

The three big things that will come to bear in post-Ian Florida:

1. The deepening macroeconomic reality of the next 12 months.

2. The huge uncertainty about the financing of the post-hurricane rebuilding.

3. The decisions that are made about changing our energy, zoning and building codes to anticipate the climate crisis-fueled hurricanes that are now part of our reality.

Macroeconomic reality

The deepening macroeconomic reality for the next year will be a harsh one for Florida. All forms of loans – construction and mortgage are just two – will have interest rates that will be more than double or triple what they were a year ago. In addition, the national and state real estate markets are already heading south in what many are already calling a “real estate recession.” Those who bought homes in the last two years during the price run-up are about to see much of their equity evaporate.

Will these people, many who moved here during the pandemic, decide it is no longer a bull market and when confronted with the hurricane-on-steroids reality of Florida and leave? How many homes or land will be put up for sale “as is” as people will just want to walk away when they realize the cost and time it will take to rebuild.

Two of the largest business categories for Florida are agriculture and tourism. Both will clearly take hits in the next 12 months. It is too soon to understand the degree to which Hurricane Ian has devastated agricultural businesses in the state. It is also too soon to fully understand how the ongoing pictures of destruction will affect people’s desire to come here for a vacation. Since Ian hit most of the state, it is not clear that the destruction of Southwest Florida may result in better tourism revenue on the east coast or north of Sarasota on the west coast.

It is safe to say that the damage in dollars will end up being north of $30 billion if not $50 billion. How much of that can be recovered through insurance of any sort is unknown but will not be anywhere near the total amount of damages.

New reality of insurance

The climate crisis has yet to be fully understood by most people relative to insurance. The costs of “once in 500 years” floods, fires, storms happening every few years is a direct result of global warming. In the U.S., in the  previous century, only one year, 1992 (Hurricane Andrew) had disaster damages more than $50 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars. In 2005, it was $250 billion, 2008 $75 billion, 2012 $125 billion, 2017 $375 billion and 2021 more than $150 billion. 2022 might be at the top of this list with the hurricanes, floods and fires.

The insurance industry and federal flood insurance was not set up for this reality. The climate crisis reality that will be the reality for the rest of this century.

To put this in perspective, the total disaster costs from 2017-21 was about $675 billion in the U.S. For just the last four years. The Inflation Reduction Act that was passed by the Biden administration had $369 billion for facing the climate crisis, over 10 years. This was regarded as a huge amount of money, but in fact will be less than half of the disaster costs of 2017-22. The country and the state, and most assuredly Sarasota and Manatee counties, have yet to budget for the necessary 21st century infrastructure to address this 21st century reality. This brings me to the third and final point.

Energy, zoning and building codes

Since I first visited Babcock Ranch in 2018 I have been totally impressed with the vision to have a carbon-free city. The developer had 700,000 solar panels built to supply energy to the rapidly growing town.

Babcock Rank, one of the most rapidly growing communities in Florida, though near Fort Myers, never lost power from the hurricane. I write these words five days after Hurricane Ian left the state and there are friends I know here in Sarasota that are still without power.

In the weeks, months and years after Hurricane Ian showed us the future of climate crisis-fueled power storms in this century, what will government and private sector leaders do relative to protecting and greening our sources of energy? What will they do relative to building codes and zoning on the barrier islands and bayfront and riverfront homes? What will leaders do to insure that homes, hotels, and any commercial enterprise, are all built on lower risk locations? What will be done to protect our beaches and beachfront businesses?

Do what we have always done – status quo of giving in to developer’s proposals, acting as if the climate crisis isn’t real, and thinking that ever more people moving to our two counties is a good thing.

The greatest quote about the future is the right way to point to our future in regards to all of this: philosopher Miguel de Unamuno said, “We should try to be the parents of our future rather than the offspring of our past.”

Time to parent our future in the post-Ian world of Florida.

Sarasota resident David Houle is a globally recognized futurist. He has given speeches on six continents, written 13 books and is futurist in residence at Ringling College of Art and Design. His websites are davidhoule.com and the2020sdecade.com. Email him at david@davidhoule.com.

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: DAVID HOULE: Post-Ian macroeconomic reality will be harsh for Florida